山顶之风
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12月17日比特币（BTC)合约技术面分析：今日方面，大周期日线级别昨日报收小阳线，K线形态连阴单阳，价格在均线下方，附图指标死叉运行，大趋势下跌是非常明显的，但需要注意的是延续性比较差，所以交易还是要保持短线，切不可做逆势单以及贪心；短周期小时图昨日整体走了震荡，高点88200区域，低点86000区域，当前K线形态连阳，但附图指标死叉向下，四小时图以日线级别压制明显，所以晚间还是保持空的思路不变，
因此今日BTC短线合约交易策略：反抽87650区域空，止损88200区域，目标看86000区域；
#币圈
因此今日BTC短线合约交易策略：反抽87650区域空，止损88200区域，目标看86000区域；
#币圈
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In the past week, whales bought 54,000 BTC, worth about 4.66 billion dollars, but the price of Bitcoin hasn't increased much, the reasons are
1. The net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs is greater than the net inflow
2. The interest rate hike in Japan is imminent, and both institutions and retail investors are panic selling
#币圈
1. The net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs is greater than the net inflow
2. The interest rate hike in Japan is imminent, and both institutions and retail investors are panic selling
#币圈
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The US stock market closed, but technology barely rose. The last macroeconomic negative factor this year is only the interest rate hike in Japan. The candidates for the Federal Reserve will be announced soon, and the new Federal Reserve chairman will definitely align with Trump's stance.
Before Christmas, when liquidity is at its worst and institutions begin their annual rebalancing and clearing, it should be a turning point. In recent weeks, there have been news about tokenization in the US stock market every few days, and with the gradual improvement of infrastructure, there is a foundation for development. This is the narrative we should focus on next.
#币圈
Before Christmas, when liquidity is at its worst and institutions begin their annual rebalancing and clearing, it should be a turning point. In recent weeks, there have been news about tokenization in the US stock market every few days, and with the gradual improvement of infrastructure, there is a foundation for development. This is the narrative we should focus on next.
#币圈
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Market in Weak Recovery: Is the Rebound an Opportunity or a Prelude to the Next Downturn?
After experiencing a significant drop on Monday, the market is attempting to stabilize. Bitcoin's price fell from above $90,000 to below $86,000, gaining initial support at a key psychological level, currently oscillating between $87,000 and $88,000. The 4-hour chart shows a slowdown in the downtrend, but trading volume has not effectively increased, indicating that buying remains primarily tentative.
Ethereum's performance is relatively weak, with prices rebounding after reaching the $2,900 support level, but constrained by the psychological barrier of $3,000, indicating that this position has turned into short-term resistance.
The current market sentiment indicator is in an extreme fear zone, reflecting a general risk-averse mentality. Technical indicators have become oversold, leading to a corrective rebound, but market confidence is fragile and easily influenced by new information.
Ethereum's performance is relatively weak, with prices rebounding after reaching the $2,900 support level, but constrained by the psychological barrier of $3,000, indicating that this position has turned into short-term resistance.
The current market sentiment indicator is in an extreme fear zone, reflecting a general risk-averse mentality. Technical indicators have become oversold, leading to a corrective rebound, but market confidence is fragile and easily influenced by new information.
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The current clearing map shows that BTC and SOL are dominated by bulls and are dense, while ETH is relatively balanced between bulls and bears and also dense. In this situation, we need to be aware of the risk, which is similar to before, where there is back and forth liquidation between bulls and bears, and we should pay attention to whether personal liquidation positions are within the liquidation range.
As for spot ETF institutions, there are currently no institutional trades for ETH, which is in a wait-and-see state. BTC and SOL have seen a net outflow of $75.2 million and a net inflow of $3.2 million, respectively. This sufficiently indicates that institutions are still in a cautious state and are not very optimistic in the short term, reflecting that the overall market is relatively quiet.
Today's short-term volatility range for BTC is 86000-89000, for ETH is 2860-3050, and for SOL is 126-132. In this case, He Yue still suggests using short-term and wave strategies, and it is recommended to follow a steady route.
#币圈
As for spot ETF institutions, there are currently no institutional trades for ETH, which is in a wait-and-see state. BTC and SOL have seen a net outflow of $75.2 million and a net inflow of $3.2 million, respectively. This sufficiently indicates that institutions are still in a cautious state and are not very optimistic in the short term, reflecting that the overall market is relatively quiet.
Today's short-term volatility range for BTC is 86000-89000, for ETH is 2860-3050, and for SOL is 126-132. In this case, He Yue still suggests using short-term and wave strategies, and it is recommended to follow a steady route.
#币圈
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Market sentiment remains low, and the funding rates still indicate a bearish outlook.
Latest data shows that the funding rates on major exchanges are still all negative, indicating that the overall market sentiment is still leaning bearish, and investors generally hold a cautious or pessimistic attitude.
#币圈
Latest data shows that the funding rates on major exchanges are still all negative, indicating that the overall market sentiment is still leaning bearish, and investors generally hold a cautious or pessimistic attitude.
#币圈
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The recent plunge in the cryptocurrency market this evening is mainly due to:
1. The Federal Reserve is hawkish: The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year has soared to 75.6%, and the high interest rate environment continues to drain liquidity, constraining market liquidity.
2. The Bank of Japan is stirring things up: The market is betting that it may raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday. If this comes true, the traditional "yen carry trade" (borrowing money to buy high-risk assets) will lead to massive unwinding, causing global funds to flow back to Japan and directly draining liquidity from risk markets.
3. Changes in the Fed chair candidate: The next leader has become a mystery, and policy uncertainty is at an all-time high, leading the market to seek safety.
In simple terms: the "leverage source" of the yen carry trade may be cut off! Historical data shows that similar policy shifts have directly triggered sharp declines in the cryptocurrency market. The market is currently reacting in advance, and panic selling has caused Bitcoin to break down directly.
Overall: This is not just a simple technical correction, but a "liquidity drain" decline under tightening global macro liquidity expectations.
#币圈
1. The Federal Reserve is hawkish: The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year has soared to 75.6%, and the high interest rate environment continues to drain liquidity, constraining market liquidity.
2. The Bank of Japan is stirring things up: The market is betting that it may raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday. If this comes true, the traditional "yen carry trade" (borrowing money to buy high-risk assets) will lead to massive unwinding, causing global funds to flow back to Japan and directly draining liquidity from risk markets.
3. Changes in the Fed chair candidate: The next leader has become a mystery, and policy uncertainty is at an all-time high, leading the market to seek safety.
In simple terms: the "leverage source" of the yen carry trade may be cut off! Historical data shows that similar policy shifts have directly triggered sharp declines in the cryptocurrency market. The market is currently reacting in advance, and panic selling has caused Bitcoin to break down directly.
Overall: This is not just a simple technical correction, but a "liquidity drain" decline under tightening global macro liquidity expectations.
#币圈
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BTC breaks below 86,000, stress testing the crypto market under Fed expectation disturbances!
Several hours ago, the cryptocurrency market faced strong selling pressure again, leading to a significant price decline. Bitcoin broke below an important technical support level in the early hours of today, dipping below $86,000 at one point during the day. According to the latest quote, Bitcoin is currently reported at around $86,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 2.8%. Ethereum's performance has been relatively weak, having briefly lost the $2,900 mark during the day, and is currently hovering around $2,950, with a daily drop of 5.4%.
The recent sharp drop in prices has triggered a large-scale liquidation of leveraged positions. Relevant statistics show that the total liquidation amount in the market over the past 24 hours is approximately $468 million, involving more than 147,000 traders. The current market sentiment indicator is in the 'extreme fear' range.
The recent sharp drop in prices has triggered a large-scale liquidation of leveraged positions. Relevant statistics show that the total liquidation amount in the market over the past 24 hours is approximately $468 million, involving more than 147,000 traders. The current market sentiment indicator is in the 'extreme fear' range.
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MicroStrategy is awesome, last week they bought 10,645 BTC worth $980 million, currently holding a total of 671,286 BTC. Over the past two weeks, MicroStrategy has been active, buying over 10,000 bitcoins for two consecutive weeks, amazing!!
#币圈
#币圈
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December 15 Bitcoin (BTC) contract technical analysis: The long-term daily candlestick pattern is showing a continuous decline, with prices below the moving average. The auxiliary indicators show a golden cross with decreasing volume, indicating that the current downward trend is advantageous. As mentioned before, last week's seemingly strong rebound did not continue to break the high and faced weekly resistance, making a significant pullback very likely, which is an experience; The short-term hourly chart showed a decline yesterday, and this morning it touched the support rebound near the 87500 area. However, the overall trend remains bearish, and the intraday rebound should be viewed as a correction. The current price is consolidating at a high level, but the auxiliary indicators show a golden cross with decreasing volume. In the European session, we still need to watch for pressure and declines. Therefore, today’s BTC short-term contract trading strategy: Sell at the current price around 89900, stop loss at 90500, target at 88900;
#币圈
#币圈
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宏观“鹰风”吹袭加密市场：比特币巨震，后市何去何从？
在宏观政策预期发生变化以及关键技术位置未能坚守的双重影响下，比特币于12月15日出现全面卖盘，盘中价格向下突破88,000美元，日内跌幅超过2.4%。过去一天内，加密货币衍生品市场累计发生强平金额约2.7亿美元，波及投资者数量超过11万人。目前市场主要交投集中在88,000至90,400美元区间，后续价格变动将决定走势是出现技术性回升还是进一步向下方支撑位靠拢。
一、宏观背景：央行紧缩预期构成主要压力近期宏观政策风向的调整是引发此轮加密资产普遍回调的关键原因。虽然美联储在上周完成了今年内的第三次降息，但市场对后续政策的预期出现明显转变，从原先期待宽松变为担忧政策收紧。降息前景不确定性上升：美联储主席鲍威尔对明年1月是否继续降息未作明确表态，多位官员也公开表示应保持政策的限制性倾向。根据相关利率观测工具的最新数据，市场认为美联储在明年1月维持利率不变的概率已超过75%。此类偏紧的政策预期引发全球风险资产遭到抛售，与传统金融市场联动性不断增强的比特币率先受到冲击。
“预期兑现，获利了结”效应出现：分析指出，美联储降息的决定已被市场提前消化，消息正式公布后反而触发了典型的利好出尽行情。与此同时，黄金作为传统避险资产年内涨幅已超过61%，而比特币年内收益仍为负值，显著的收益差距促使部分资金从加密市场转向表现更为稳健的传统资产。
机构观点趋于审慎：宏观层面的不确定性已影响主流机构的判断。部分银行近期调整了对比特币的价格预测，将2025年末目标价位从20万美元调降至约10万美元，理由是大额投资者的购买力可能已接近阶段性饱和。
二、技术走势：重要支撑失守，进入方向选择阶段当前技术形态呈现明显的空头突破特征，但部分指标也显示短期超卖及可能出现反弹的迹象。关键点位与交投区间：12月15日，比特币价格连续跌破89,000美元和88,000美元两道整数关口，最低下探至87,967.8美元。目前市场关注点集中在以下两个技术位置：
期货价格缺口——90,400美元：这是由于周末现货交易与期货市场休市所形成的价格空白区域。历史数据显示，此类缺口对后续价格具有明显的回补吸引力，可作为判断反弹能否启动的首个关键阻力参考。
核心支撑区间——88,000至89,000美元：多位分析人士指出，该区间是当前多空双方争夺的分界线。若能在此区域止跌企稳，市场有望组织反弹；如果确认有效跌破，则可能打开向下测试85,000美元乃至更低位置的空间。
多空指标信号不一：尽管价格走低，但部分技术指标并未显示市场处于单向恐慌之中。一方面，移动平均线系统较早前已发出买入信号；另一方面，能量潮指标在近期价格创新低时并未同步走低，出现底部背离现象，暗示卖出压力可能逐渐减轻。然而，相对强弱指数已自中性区域回落，表明短期动能仍偏空。
链上数据反映的持仓分化：大额持有者与普通投资者的行为呈现明显差异。数据显示，持有10至10,000枚比特币的地址自11月底以来已重新进入积累状态，而同期中小投资者则持续买入或保持持仓。这种“大额积累、散户持稳”的结构，通常出现在市场震荡筑底的阶段，而非恐慌下跌的初期。
三、操作思路与注意事项对于已持仓的投资者：应密切关注87,500美元附近的支撑情况。若该位置带量跌破，可考虑降低仓位以管理风险。如果价格能在此企稳并反弹，可等待回升至90,400至92,000美元区域后，根据市场动能再决定是否调整持仓。
对于短线交易者：当前市场波动加大，不宜盲目追空。偏好进取的投资者可在87,500至88,000美元支撑区域轻仓试探做多，但需将止损设置在87,000美元下方。相对稳妥的策略是等待价格明确回升并回补90,400美元缺口后，再顺势操作。
对于长期配置者：市场的深度调整可能带来更好的布局机会。建议重点观察大额持仓地址的变动情况以及比特币ETF的资金流向数据，若出现“价格下跌而大额持仓持续增加、ETF流出趋势扭转”等积极信号，可考虑采用分批买入的方式逐步建立仓位。
需要留意的是，12月下旬正值欧美传统假期，市场流动性往往减弱，可能加剧价格波动。此外，美联储领导层人事安排存在不确定性，叠加地缘政治事件等潜在因素，均可能成为短期内影响市场的意外变量。
一、宏观背景：央行紧缩预期构成主要压力近期宏观政策风向的调整是引发此轮加密资产普遍回调的关键原因。虽然美联储在上周完成了今年内的第三次降息，但市场对后续政策的预期出现明显转变，从原先期待宽松变为担忧政策收紧。降息前景不确定性上升：美联储主席鲍威尔对明年1月是否继续降息未作明确表态，多位官员也公开表示应保持政策的限制性倾向。根据相关利率观测工具的最新数据，市场认为美联储在明年1月维持利率不变的概率已超过75%。此类偏紧的政策预期引发全球风险资产遭到抛售，与传统金融市场联动性不断增强的比特币率先受到冲击。
“预期兑现，获利了结”效应出现：分析指出，美联储降息的决定已被市场提前消化，消息正式公布后反而触发了典型的利好出尽行情。与此同时，黄金作为传统避险资产年内涨幅已超过61%，而比特币年内收益仍为负值，显著的收益差距促使部分资金从加密市场转向表现更为稳健的传统资产。
机构观点趋于审慎：宏观层面的不确定性已影响主流机构的判断。部分银行近期调整了对比特币的价格预测，将2025年末目标价位从20万美元调降至约10万美元，理由是大额投资者的购买力可能已接近阶段性饱和。
二、技术走势：重要支撑失守，进入方向选择阶段当前技术形态呈现明显的空头突破特征，但部分指标也显示短期超卖及可能出现反弹的迹象。关键点位与交投区间：12月15日，比特币价格连续跌破89,000美元和88,000美元两道整数关口，最低下探至87,967.8美元。目前市场关注点集中在以下两个技术位置：
期货价格缺口——90,400美元：这是由于周末现货交易与期货市场休市所形成的价格空白区域。历史数据显示，此类缺口对后续价格具有明显的回补吸引力，可作为判断反弹能否启动的首个关键阻力参考。
核心支撑区间——88,000至89,000美元：多位分析人士指出，该区间是当前多空双方争夺的分界线。若能在此区域止跌企稳，市场有望组织反弹；如果确认有效跌破，则可能打开向下测试85,000美元乃至更低位置的空间。
多空指标信号不一：尽管价格走低，但部分技术指标并未显示市场处于单向恐慌之中。一方面，移动平均线系统较早前已发出买入信号；另一方面，能量潮指标在近期价格创新低时并未同步走低，出现底部背离现象，暗示卖出压力可能逐渐减轻。然而，相对强弱指数已自中性区域回落，表明短期动能仍偏空。
链上数据反映的持仓分化：大额持有者与普通投资者的行为呈现明显差异。数据显示，持有10至10,000枚比特币的地址自11月底以来已重新进入积累状态，而同期中小投资者则持续买入或保持持仓。这种“大额积累、散户持稳”的结构，通常出现在市场震荡筑底的阶段，而非恐慌下跌的初期。
三、操作思路与注意事项对于已持仓的投资者：应密切关注87,500美元附近的支撑情况。若该位置带量跌破，可考虑降低仓位以管理风险。如果价格能在此企稳并反弹，可等待回升至90,400至92,000美元区域后，根据市场动能再决定是否调整持仓。
对于短线交易者：当前市场波动加大，不宜盲目追空。偏好进取的投资者可在87,500至88,000美元支撑区域轻仓试探做多，但需将止损设置在87,000美元下方。相对稳妥的策略是等待价格明确回升并回补90,400美元缺口后，再顺势操作。
对于长期配置者：市场的深度调整可能带来更好的布局机会。建议重点观察大额持仓地址的变动情况以及比特币ETF的资金流向数据，若出现“价格下跌而大额持仓持续增加、ETF流出趋势扭转”等积极信号，可考虑采用分批买入的方式逐步建立仓位。
需要留意的是，12月下旬正值欧美传统假期，市场流动性往往减弱，可能加剧价格波动。此外，美联储领导层人事安排存在不确定性，叠加地缘政治事件等潜在因素，均可能成为短期内影响市场的意外变量。
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Recently, the market has been fluctuating repeatedly. When you feel it is about to go down, it rises; when you feel it is about to go up, it falls again. This back and forth continues!
This is currently a typical triangular fluctuation area, with the fluctuation range getting smaller. Next week, with the yen interest rate hike, it should break out of this range, with the upper level around 94000 and the lower level around 88000. This range is worth paying attention to.
Recently, it is still primarily about cautious trading,
#币圈
This is currently a typical triangular fluctuation area, with the fluctuation range getting smaller. Next week, with the yen interest rate hike, it should break out of this range, with the upper level around 94000 and the lower level around 88000. This range is worth paying attention to.
Recently, it is still primarily about cautious trading,
#币圈
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The insider address for 10·11 has fully opened long positions, currently holding:
Long positions of ETH worth 450 million, average price 3,179;
Long positions of BTC worth 92 million, average price 91,506;
Long positions of SOL worth 28 million, average price 137.
Is this average price, this wave of increase pulled by him?
Still the same saying, who he is doesn't matter, as long as the sentiment comes!
#币圈
Long positions of ETH worth 450 million, average price 3,179;
Long positions of BTC worth 92 million, average price 91,506;
Long positions of SOL worth 28 million, average price 137.
Is this average price, this wave of increase pulled by him?
Still the same saying, who he is doesn't matter, as long as the sentiment comes!
#币圈
See original
Crypto Market Morning Report: Fed Aftershocks Persist, Market in Intense Fluctuations—Bulls and Bears Stalemate, Range Becomes the Main Theme
Under the continued influence of the Federal Reserve's latest decision, financial market sentiment is sensitive and volatile, with significant increases in volatility. The cryptocurrency market shows a typical pattern of high-level fluctuations and widespread declines, reflecting the current risk-averse atmosphere dominated by macro uncertainty.
Market dynamics: Wide fluctuations, key resistance under pressure
Bitcoin: High failed, pressure wall at $93,000–$94,000 evident
In the early hours, Bitcoin once fell below $90,000, then quickly rebounded, rising to over $93,000. However, the bullish momentum could not be sustained, and the price fell back to around $91,750, clearly affected by the heavy selling pressure in the $93,000–$94,000 range.
Market dynamics: Wide fluctuations, key resistance under pressure
Bitcoin: High failed, pressure wall at $93,000–$94,000 evident
In the early hours, Bitcoin once fell below $90,000, then quickly rebounded, rising to over $93,000. However, the bullish momentum could not be sustained, and the price fell back to around $91,750, clearly affected by the heavy selling pressure in the $93,000–$94,000 range.
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If this multi-year support level holds, Dogecoin could see a 600% increase by 2026?
As the upward momentum weakened earlier this week, Dogecoin (DOGE) saw a 5.5% drop on the daily chart, falling back to recent lows. Some analysts believe that if the current level can hold, Dogecoin may experience a significant short-term and mid-term rebound.
Dogecoin is preparing to reach the $1 milestone
On Thursday, Dogecoin followed the trends of other cryptocurrencies, falling to the range of $0.136 to $0.138. Since the market downturn in the fourth quarter, Dogecoin has dropped about 50% and has been fluctuating within the price range of $0.130 to $0.155 over the past few weeks.
Dogecoin is preparing to reach the $1 milestone
On Thursday, Dogecoin followed the trends of other cryptocurrencies, falling to the range of $0.136 to $0.138. Since the market downturn in the fourth quarter, Dogecoin has dropped about 50% and has been fluctuating within the price range of $0.130 to $0.155 over the past few weeks.
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On December 12, BlockBeats latest monitoring data shows that 0xb31BTC OG insider whale has continuously opened long positions and increased holdings in the past 4 hours, with BTC long positions amounting to approximately $91.83 million, an average price of $91,500, and an unrealized profit of $350,000; SOL long positions amount to approximately $13.63 million, an average price of $135, and an unrealized profit of $60,000. This address has simultaneously placed large ETH buy orders in the $3,030–$3,150 range, with a total scale of approximately $92.7 million. Last night at 11 PM, it further increased its ETH holdings at $3,190, reaching a long position scale of $452 million, an average price of $3,179, and an unrealized profit of $7.25 million, bringing the total long positions to $560 million, exceeding the $500 million BTC short position established before the market downturn on October 11. From December 7 to 8, this address transferred $700,000 from Binance to Hyperliquid and opened ETH long positions with 5x leverage at an average price of $3,048; on the 10th, it transferred an additional $500,000 to increase its holdings, and today it transferred another $1.1 million. BTC OG has held more than 50,000 BTC for 8 years, and then exchanged some for ETH, with its operations often highly synchronized with Trump's threats and U.S. policies. On October 11, the $500 million BTC short position made nearly $100 million in profits, shocking the market.
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Going up is emotion, coming down is truth | Watching last night's surge followed by a drop: BTC ETH
To be honest, the rise didn't feel much like a 'trend', but more like 'stepping into a liquidity void', soft and mushy!
Although the FOMC cut interest rates, it was just in line with expectations; the dot plot gives a bearish signal: 'Don't think too much, there may only be one cut next year.'
This statement can influence the pulse of risk assets more than any candlestick.
#币圈
To be honest, the rise didn't feel much like a 'trend', but more like 'stepping into a liquidity void', soft and mushy!
Although the FOMC cut interest rates, it was just in line with expectations; the dot plot gives a bearish signal: 'Don't think too much, there may only be one cut next year.'
This statement can influence the pulse of risk assets more than any candlestick.
#币圈
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From 'Dovish' Landing to 'Hawkish' Digestion: How the Last Federal Reserve Decision of 2025 Reshapes the Landscape of the Crypto Market?
Market Overview: Double Killing of Long and Short Positions and Capital Outflow
The last Federal Reserve interest rate decision of 2025 finally landed early this morning. In line with market expectations, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25bp, but this became the fuse that triggered a massive market shock.
Although the action is 'dove', the guidance is 'hawk'. The future rate cut path has been significantly adjusted downwards, and the market quickly shifted from excitement to panic. In just 24 hours, the total contract liquidation across the network exceeded $300 million, with 114600 people being liquidated, marking a bloody night of double killing of long and short positions.
Performance of Major Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin: Wide Fluctuations, Key Position Contention
The last Federal Reserve interest rate decision of 2025 finally landed early this morning. In line with market expectations, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25bp, but this became the fuse that triggered a massive market shock.
Although the action is 'dove', the guidance is 'hawk'. The future rate cut path has been significantly adjusted downwards, and the market quickly shifted from excitement to panic. In just 24 hours, the total contract liquidation across the network exceeded $300 million, with 114600 people being liquidated, marking a bloody night of double killing of long and short positions.
Performance of Major Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin: Wide Fluctuations, Key Position Contention
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