The recent plunge in the cryptocurrency market this evening is mainly due to:
1. The Federal Reserve is hawkish: The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year has soared to 75.6%, and the high interest rate environment continues to drain liquidity, constraining market liquidity.
2. The Bank of Japan is stirring things up: The market is betting that it may raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday. If this comes true, the traditional "yen carry trade" (borrowing money to buy high-risk assets) will lead to massive unwinding, causing global funds to flow back to Japan and directly draining liquidity from risk markets.
3. Changes in the Fed chair candidate: The next leader has become a mystery, and policy uncertainty is at an all-time high, leading the market to seek safety.
In simple terms: the "leverage source" of the yen carry trade may be cut off! Historical data shows that similar policy shifts have directly triggered sharp declines in the cryptocurrency market. The market is currently reacting in advance, and panic selling has caused Bitcoin to break down directly.
Overall: This is not just a simple technical correction, but a "liquidity drain" decline under tightening global macro liquidity expectations.
