【The less people talk about BTC, the more I feel I can't ignore it】
I stared at BTC for a while during the day, and the structure is more stable than I imagined.
Recently, the circle has been unusually quiet, the groups are deserted, and even Weibo has fewer calls. But the less people talk, the more I feel I can't ignore it. The current price is hovering around 85893, looking lukewarm, but the RSI is stuck at 40.8, which is neither weak nor strong, as if waiting for some signal. The pullback and consolidation have lasted for a few days now; there has been no rush to crash down, nor has there been a surge, this kind of tug-of-war is understood by old investors — it's either building momentum or luring in more buyers.
One possibility is that, after this consolidation, it can push up again. Although the trading volume hasn't increased, the selling pressure during the decline isn't severe, indicating that the chips are relatively stable. Moreover, the market sentiment hasn't collapsed in the past few days, and there haven't been any black swan events. If the main force really wants to make a move, it is entirely possible to push again during this consolidation. Especially since the RSI hasn't entered the oversold zone and has stabilized in advance, it indicates that buying is actually quietly catching up.
However, another possibility cannot be ignored. Prolonged stagnation can lead to problems, especially during this seemingly stable yet directionless phase. Once there is a disturbance in the external environment, or if on-chain data suddenly shows significant selling pressure, it could directly break the balance and drop to fill the gap. Market confidence is already fragile, and if a key level breaks, it could trigger a chain reaction. Therefore, even if I tend to be bullish, I don't dare to be too aggressive in positioning.
My own approach is to hold onto the base position, trying a small amount in short positions to earn some pocket money and then exit, without being greedy. If there’s a real breakthrough or a breakdown, then consider adjusting. The current market is not suitable for heavy bets on direction; it feels more like a test of patience. Sometimes, the most dangerous thing is not a crash, but when you think you are safe, the market suddenly turns.
In summary, don’t let your guard down just because no one is talking. The quieter it is, the more you need to watch the order book. After all, whether in a bull or bear market, the ones who truly make money are often those who observe silently.
