#加密市场观察 $ETH $BTC The consultant discusses hot topics:
Still thinking about interest rate cuts being good news, folks? If it were really good news, MSTR wouldn't have collapsed on Monday's opening. A low opening bearish candle, struggling all day, closing at -8.14%.
This is the capital clearly telling you that the story is hard to sell. What's even more disgusting is that the structure MicroStrategy is following now is almost identical to the top of the last Bitcoin bull market, so much so that you can't deny it.
And behind Bitcoin, it can still rely on liquidity to pull a new high, but MSTR can't; it will only give you lower highs. Each high is lower than the last, and the trend is getting weaker.
Retracing more than 70% from the historical peak is no longer a normal correction; it is a denial at the trend level. If you still treat it as a leverage bull market amplifier, that's not faith; that's just a lack of judgment.
So now that micro-strategies are frantically buying coins, is it really because they are extremely optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin? Don't be too naive. If they don't buy, stocks have no narrative. If they stop, the market's first reaction must be whether this guy is preparing to sell coins.
The logic is that simple. When QT stops, everyone immediately fantasizes about QE. The current frenzied buying feels more like extending the life of stock prices rather than laying the groundwork for the next bull market.
Back to the market, as for the breaking of the four-year bull-bear cycle, I just want to say to watch less mindless KOL analysis. A cycle is not just a slogan; it is an objective result at the monthly level. Since mid-October, the trend has clearly entered a bear market.
The entire rally from the 15.6K rebound in 2022 has ended; it is not a halftime break. A bear market does not mean daily crashes; instead, every rebound lowers your cognitive ceiling. Once this major trend is established, interest rate cuts cannot turn it back.
Entering a bear market does not mean it can't rise; quite the opposite, the rebounds in a bear market are the fiercest and can easily deceive people into getting on board. Interest rate cuts and liquidity expectations serve only to create a few decent rebounds in a bear market, making you mistakenly believe that a bull market has returned, only to be hit hard again.
So before next weekend, the probability of hitting this month's lowest point is extremely high. It might even be a new low after the peak at 126.2K, whether it is 78.8K or 74.6K.
The nature of this round of bottom fishing is no different from the 88.8K and 80.6K in November; both are phase bottoms in a bear market, not the ultimate answer. But if you know what you're doing, this phase could last a month. Whether it's enough depends on your ability.
For me, the preferred scenario is: first, a complete hunt down to the previous low of 80.6K on November 21, clearing out the remaining liquidity below, washing out all the dreamers.
Such liquidation combined with pullbacks is a healthy bottom-building structure. If it breaks below 80.6K without liquidation and without volume, it indicates that there are more disgusting things waiting below.
The mentor observes the trend:
From a technical perspective, the key upward trend line was effectively broken yesterday. This step is crucial, indicating that the previous rebound logic has basically failed.
Moreover, the moving averages have turned into a bearish reverse order, with prices being pressed below the moving averages, forming a clear converging resistance zone above. In simple terms, every rebound is met with selling, and every time you look up, you get pushed back down.
After this large volume bearish candlestick, the market did not give a decent rebound; it just ground sideways at a low level. If this state continues, it can basically be determined as a stair-step decline, rather than the end of an adjustment.
Is there a rebound? Yes, but I only see it as a pure technical rebound, and it can only be short-lived. Once a rebound occurs, 86K–87K is a clear pressure zone; this is not a place for you to fantasize about a V-reversal, but rather a place to raise your vigilance.
The RSI is already near the oversold zone, which means there will be a breather, but oversold does not equal bottomed out. At this point, it is far from being a bottom. The reason is simple: there is no decent buying volume and no significant counterattack; after this much decline, there hasn't even been a rebound.
84.6K is the first support, today can only be considered a short-term reference point. If it can't hold here, don't stubbornly resist; the next target to watch is 82.3K, with no good buffer in between for hope.
86.8K is the first resistance; even if a short-term rebound succeeds, it is very likely to weaken here. 88.1K is a stronger resistance area, and reaching there requires both sentiment and volume to cooperate. Even so, it still leans towards a lower position.
Overall, don't expect a V-shaped reversal. What you need to guard against more is the N-shaped structure of rebound - decline - rebound - decline, which slowly wears away your patience and position.
12.16 Mentor's wave segment setup:
Long entry reference: not applicable for now
Short entry reference: 88100-88500 range short, target: 86800-86000
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after watching a few market movements. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot a long position, tomorrow they summarize a short position, and it seems like they 'catch every top and bottom,' but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger's trading logic must be consistent, coherent, and withstand scrutiny, rather than only showing up when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
