师爷陈
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Master Chen 12.17: The news indicates a clear direction for the market. The true bottom of the market requires the main forces to return 观看原文$BTC $ETH
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Consultant Chen 12.17: News-driven week, the true bottom of the market needs the main force to return
#美国非农数据超预期 Consultant discusses hot topics:
Let's talk about the non-farm data, the numbers are there, and the unemployment rate has gone up. But to say that the market really believes this is a sign of recession? I think that's a bit ridiculous. And the U.S. stock market didn't care at all, instead, a bunch of people are cheering.
Hoping for a higher unemployment rate to push the Federal Reserve to cut rates more. What happened? Last night's U.S. stock market not only didn't crash, but actually stabilized, and Bitcoin also bounced back a bit. Whether the data is bad or not doesn't matter; as long as a favorable narrative for rate cuts can be spun, the market can continue to speculate.
As for this week's interest rate hike in Japan, I will talk about it again, because this is something that I am still being asked repeatedly. The consultant can only say it's a case of being late to the game, as the interest rate hike has already been a known factor, and the market has long since digested it. By the time that moment arrives, hoping for a big market movement is quite unlikely.
Let's talk about the non-farm data, the numbers are there, and the unemployment rate has gone up. But to say that the market really believes this is a sign of recession? I think that's a bit ridiculous. And the U.S. stock market didn't care at all, instead, a bunch of people are cheering.
Hoping for a higher unemployment rate to push the Federal Reserve to cut rates more. What happened? Last night's U.S. stock market not only didn't crash, but actually stabilized, and Bitcoin also bounced back a bit. Whether the data is bad or not doesn't matter; as long as a favorable narrative for rate cuts can be spun, the market can continue to speculate.
As for this week's interest rate hike in Japan, I will talk about it again, because this is something that I am still being asked repeatedly. The consultant can only say it's a case of being late to the game, as the interest rate hike has already been a known factor, and the market has long since digested it. By the time that moment arrives, hoping for a big market movement is quite unlikely.
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Master Chen 12.16: The structure of the bull market top reappears. Only by hunting the previous lows can a healthy bottom be built $BTC $ETH 观看原文
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Consultant Chen 12.16: The structure of the bull market top reappears; hunting for previous lows is necessary for healthy bottoming.
#加密市场观察 $ETH $BTC The consultant discusses hot topics:
Still thinking about interest rate cuts being good news, folks? If it were really good news, MSTR wouldn't have collapsed on Monday's opening. A low opening bearish candle, struggling all day, closing at -8.14%.
This is the capital clearly telling you that the story is hard to sell. What's even more disgusting is that the structure MicroStrategy is following now is almost identical to the top of the last Bitcoin bull market, so much so that you can't deny it.
And behind Bitcoin, it can still rely on liquidity to pull a new high, but MSTR can't; it will only give you lower highs. Each high is lower than the last, and the trend is getting weaker.
Still thinking about interest rate cuts being good news, folks? If it were really good news, MSTR wouldn't have collapsed on Monday's opening. A low opening bearish candle, struggling all day, closing at -8.14%.
This is the capital clearly telling you that the story is hard to sell. What's even more disgusting is that the structure MicroStrategy is following now is almost identical to the top of the last Bitcoin bull market, so much so that you can't deny it.
And behind Bitcoin, it can still rely on liquidity to pull a new high, but MSTR can't; it will only give you lower highs. Each high is lower than the last, and the trend is getting weaker.
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$BTC $ETH Master Chen 12.15: No bottom fishing, no knife catching, do not speak of more without seeing the big needle, the main force has not finished washing 观看原文
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Consultant Chen 12.15: No bottom fishing, no catching knives, no long positions without seeing big needles, the main force hasn't finished washing yet.
#加密市场反弹 Consultant discusses hot topics:
This week is just the standard hell week, nothing much to explain. Messages are coming in one after another: non-farm payrolls, inflation, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and Japan's interest rate decisions, all coming together, clearly aiming to hit the market hard.
First, let me give you the conclusion, this week the only keyword is: short. No bottom fishing, no catching falling knives, and do not go long without seeing a big needle. I mentioned last week in my analysis about Japan's interest rate hike, since last year, every time the Bank of Japan raises rates, it starts with a twenty-point drop.
In March, it dropped more than 20%, in July it dropped more than 20%, and in January this year it dropped directly by 30%. At this point, some people will definitely insist that the market has already anticipated this. If it was truly fully anticipated, how come every time the interest rate hike lands, it can still drop so hard?
This week is just the standard hell week, nothing much to explain. Messages are coming in one after another: non-farm payrolls, inflation, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and Japan's interest rate decisions, all coming together, clearly aiming to hit the market hard.
First, let me give you the conclusion, this week the only keyword is: short. No bottom fishing, no catching falling knives, and do not go long without seeing a big needle. I mentioned last week in my analysis about Japan's interest rate hike, since last year, every time the Bank of Japan raises rates, it starts with a twenty-point drop.
In March, it dropped more than 20%, in July it dropped more than 20%, and in January this year it dropped directly by 30%. At this point, some people will definitely insist that the market has already anticipated this. If it was truly fully anticipated, how come every time the interest rate hike lands, it can still drop so hard?
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Advisor Chen 12.12: Expanding the table won't save the market, negative factors not yet realized, the paint door market upgrades $BTC $ETH 观看原文
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Advisor Chen 12.12: Balance sheet expansion won't save the market, negative news hasn't landed, and the door painting trend is upgrading.
#美联储降息 Advisor talks hot topics:
Continuing from yesterday's analysis, old Bao's hawkish talk about rate cuts is actually loosening, but his actions are harsher than anyone else's. The market is no longer playing along and is showing its true colors. The only thing that can comfort oneself is the expansion of the balance sheet starting on the 12th.
40 billion to buy short-term bonds to put on a show, splash a bit of water to muddle through emotions. But that dot plot is just sitting there; there will only be one chance for a rate cut next year. Just one. So now, forget about January and March. Want to wait for a rate cut? You at least have to see how the January meeting plays out.
More realistically, old Bao will step down in May next year. What he is doing now is all just a term-limited performance; the real opening of the faucet will have to wait for the new head of the Federal Reserve.
Continuing from yesterday's analysis, old Bao's hawkish talk about rate cuts is actually loosening, but his actions are harsher than anyone else's. The market is no longer playing along and is showing its true colors. The only thing that can comfort oneself is the expansion of the balance sheet starting on the 12th.
40 billion to buy short-term bonds to put on a show, splash a bit of water to muddle through emotions. But that dot plot is just sitting there; there will only be one chance for a rate cut next year. Just one. So now, forget about January and March. Want to wait for a rate cut? You at least have to see how the January meeting plays out.
More realistically, old Bao will step down in May next year. What he is doing now is all just a term-limited performance; the real opening of the faucet will have to wait for the new head of the Federal Reserve.
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$BTC $ETH Master Chen 12.11: The fluctuations are not a bottom 94K three consecutive kneels Deep Bear script is coming?
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观看原文Master Chen 12.10: Interest rate cuts cannot save the market 93.5K summon gap threefold divergence $BTC $ETH
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Consultant Chen 12.10: Rate cuts cannot save the market 93.5K summon gap triple divergence
#加密市场反弹 Consultant discusses hot topics:
Tomorrow morning, this lousy Federal Reserve meeting, a 25bp rate cut is basically just a routine matter. I haven't really paid much attention to that, but what I care about is whether the dot plot dares to soften and whether Powell dares to be lenient.
If these two continue to put on a serious face and act like eagles, tomorrow's market will be a slap that brings all the long positions back to reality. Following that, there will be the Japanese monetary policy meeting and a bunch of data ready to hit us.
The surge in the 2-year yield over the past week is the clearest signal that the market has not only priced in a rate cut ahead of time but has also pushed up the average interest rate, neutral rate, and risk premium for the next two years.
Tomorrow morning, this lousy Federal Reserve meeting, a 25bp rate cut is basically just a routine matter. I haven't really paid much attention to that, but what I care about is whether the dot plot dares to soften and whether Powell dares to be lenient.
If these two continue to put on a serious face and act like eagles, tomorrow's market will be a slap that brings all the long positions back to reality. Following that, there will be the Japanese monetary policy meeting and a bunch of data ready to hit us.
The surge in the 2-year yield over the past week is the clearest signal that the market has not only priced in a rate cut ahead of time but has also pushed up the average interest rate, neutral rate, and risk premium for the next two years.
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Consultant Chen 12.8: Buying news and selling facts again, is the high point liquidation starting after the weekly test?
#美联储重启降息步伐 Consultant discusses hot topics:
This week's market is all about one thing: everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve's announcement at 3 AM on the 11th. First of all, a rate cut is basically a done deal, there's no suspense about that. The key question is whether they dare to lower the expectations for rate cuts next year a bit more dovishly.
If they continue to act hawkish, then get ready for a wave of collective selling. If they dare to soften their tone a bit in line with Trump's wishes, there might be a breather. Because I don't believe at all in the forward guidance coming from these people.
Looking back at last year's end, you can see that the market sentiment was already good around Christmas. Trump won the election, and the rate cut was implemented. But then, old Powell gave a speech that pushed the expectations for rate cuts this year down to two times.
This week's market is all about one thing: everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve's announcement at 3 AM on the 11th. First of all, a rate cut is basically a done deal, there's no suspense about that. The key question is whether they dare to lower the expectations for rate cuts next year a bit more dovishly.
If they continue to act hawkish, then get ready for a wave of collective selling. If they dare to soften their tone a bit in line with Trump's wishes, there might be a breather. Because I don't believe at all in the forward guidance coming from these people.
Looking back at last year's end, you can see that the market sentiment was already good around Christmas. Trump won the election, and the rate cut was implemented. But then, old Powell gave a speech that pushed the expectations for rate cuts this year down to two times.
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Advisor Chen 12.8: Buying news and selling facts again. Is the high point settlement starting after the weekly test?
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Master Chen 12.5: One month ago the market was stagnant, will there be a counterattack after the major cycle OB pullback? 观看原文
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Consultant Chen 12.5: Market Stagnation Before January, Will There Be a Counterattack After the Big Cycle OB Pullback?
#加密市场观察 Consultant discusses hot topics:
It's Friday, and the macro market this week is still stagnant; everyone is waiting to see how the Federal Reserve will play its cards in December. The market seems calm on the surface, but there are undercurrents everywhere. Whether it’s the U.S. stock market or Bitcoin, they are just grinding back and forth in a narrow path.
Including some data from yesterday, it doesn't really mean anything. Not even a splash, as the market is basically focused on the next rate cut, whether it will be 25bp or if there will be a surprise or shock.
And this week probably won’t stir up much action either, most likely just getting by. Next week, we will need to watch the dot plot and Old Powell's speech, with data being thrown out in a series, which will also be my mid-term ambush point.
It's Friday, and the macro market this week is still stagnant; everyone is waiting to see how the Federal Reserve will play its cards in December. The market seems calm on the surface, but there are undercurrents everywhere. Whether it’s the U.S. stock market or Bitcoin, they are just grinding back and forth in a narrow path.
Including some data from yesterday, it doesn't really mean anything. Not even a splash, as the market is basically focused on the next rate cut, whether it will be 25bp or if there will be a surprise or shock.
And this week probably won’t stir up much action either, most likely just getting by. Next week, we will need to watch the dot plot and Old Powell's speech, with data being thrown out in a series, which will also be my mid-term ambush point.
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Master Chen 12.4: Stocks and currencies should not fantasize about taking off from the same place. The liquidity dense area will naturally harvest 观看原文
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Advisor Chen 12.4: Stocks and currencies rise together, don't fantasize about taking off from the same spot. The liquidity dense area will harvest itself.
#加密市场观察 The advisor discusses hot topics:
Last night when that pile of data came out, to be honest, what happened in September is already meaningless. It's all old accounts before the Americans halted, just take a look. What's worth mentioning is the ADP non-farm payroll, this data is simply outrageous. The previous value was revised from 42,000 to 47,000, did you think it was still stable?
As a result, the latest directly turned into -32,000, employment didn't rise but dropped instead, this is the real employment environment in America right now. Once the data was released, the market immediately smelled blood, and the CME's probability of a rate cut in December skyrocketed to 89%. This wave is not just poor employment, it's poor enough to corner the Federal Reserve.
Last night when that pile of data came out, to be honest, what happened in September is already meaningless. It's all old accounts before the Americans halted, just take a look. What's worth mentioning is the ADP non-farm payroll, this data is simply outrageous. The previous value was revised from 42,000 to 47,000, did you think it was still stable?
As a result, the latest directly turned into -32,000, employment didn't rise but dropped instead, this is the real employment environment in America right now. Once the data was released, the market immediately smelled blood, and the CME's probability of a rate cut in December skyrocketed to 89%. This wave is not just poor employment, it's poor enough to corner the Federal Reserve.
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Master Chen 12.3: Only the cancellation of SLR can open the floodgates for the Federal Reserve. Is the double bottom initiating a polar reversal? 观看原文
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Advisor Chen 12.3: The cancellation of SLR is the Federal Reserve's opening of the floodgates, will the double bottom trigger a dramatic reversal?
#加密市场回调 The advisor discusses hot topics:
The market's sentiment has indeed flipped dramatically these past two days; the lifeless look on Monday was practically being ground into the ground under the shadow of Japan's interest rate hike. Don't give me excuses about the possibility of no rate hike in December; no one believes that anymore.
Japan's bond yield is there, it's just a blatant actual interest rate hike. That's why the market was so weak on Tuesday during the day; the major news of stopping the balance sheet reduction received absolutely no reaction during the day. I was left completely baffled at that moment; what is this market really about?
As a result, when the U.S. stock market opened at night, it directly surged, and of course, Bitcoin had to follow suit. Additionally, the Federal Reserve secretly added $13.5 billion during the day yesterday, which can be seen as pouring a bit of lubricant into the gears. But don't take it seriously; this is still not easing.
The market's sentiment has indeed flipped dramatically these past two days; the lifeless look on Monday was practically being ground into the ground under the shadow of Japan's interest rate hike. Don't give me excuses about the possibility of no rate hike in December; no one believes that anymore.
Japan's bond yield is there, it's just a blatant actual interest rate hike. That's why the market was so weak on Tuesday during the day; the major news of stopping the balance sheet reduction received absolutely no reaction during the day. I was left completely baffled at that moment; what is this market really about?
As a result, when the U.S. stock market opened at night, it directly surged, and of course, Bitcoin had to follow suit. Additionally, the Federal Reserve secretly added $13.5 billion during the day yesterday, which can be seen as pouring a bit of lubricant into the gears. But don't take it seriously; this is still not easing.
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Master Chen 12.2: Yen interest rate hike, Federal Reserve interest rate cut, the market's head and shoulders top, Ethereum death cross double test? 观看原文
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