#美国非农数据超预期 Consultant discusses hot topics:
Let's talk about the non-farm data, the numbers are there, and the unemployment rate has gone up. But to say that the market really believes this is a sign of recession? I think that's a bit ridiculous. And the U.S. stock market didn't care at all, instead, a bunch of people are cheering.
Hoping for a higher unemployment rate to push the Federal Reserve to cut rates more. What happened? Last night's U.S. stock market not only didn't crash, but actually stabilized, and Bitcoin also bounced back a bit. Whether the data is bad or not doesn't matter; as long as a favorable narrative for rate cuts can be spun, the market can continue to speculate.
As for this week's interest rate hike in Japan, I will talk about it again, because this is something that I am still being asked repeatedly. The consultant can only say it's a case of being late to the game, as the interest rate hike has already been a known factor, and the market has long since digested it. By the time that moment arrives, hoping for a big market movement is quite unlikely.
Do you want me to say is a 0.75% interest rate high? Not at all. What really makes people nervous is whether they will continue to turn the faucet on. If there is indeed a continuation of interest rate hikes, then that's a slow knife cutting meat, so this reaction has long played out.
Back to the market, the spot premium for Bitcoin has already turned negative. Last night's bit of a rebound didn't drive spot purchases at all, it was all contracts there. To put it simply, this rebound is a castle in the air, and a rise without spot participation is not ideal.
And I have no interest in being bullish at all until the price stands above the 4-hour channel midline of 90.1K. The current market remains oscillating and weak.
Moreover, since the main force fled on December 12, they haven't returned to make a market, and you need to recognize this reality. Those so-called rallies afterwards only reached a maximum of 92.6K. Why exactly 92.6K? Because that was the last time the main force seriously made a market, after which it was all bloodletting.
If the main force doesn't come back to take stock, how could Bitcoin possibly bottom? This script has already played out once in March and April of this year; what will happen next? It's simple: there will be another batch of bulls dragged out as sacrifices, and the bearish momentum has indeed not yet ended.
The daily structure did indeed rebound after testing 85K, but it didn't even touch the Monday opening price of 88.1K, being pressed down all night. This indicates that the buy orders pushing up from 85K are simply insufficient, and they soften at critical points.
Want to turn things around? Sure, break through 88K with volume and then we'll talk, otherwise, there's no point in discussing it. Only when it firmly stands at 88K can it qualify to touch 90K. If it's just a spike to grab liquidity, that's a trap, and it will continue to go down.
Looking at the smaller levels is clearer, Monday's spike at 85K, and Tuesday not seizing that low indicates that area will have to be stepped on again sooner or later. Last night's oscillating rise was essentially a confirmation of a pullback to 86K, then pushed to 88K and was immediately rejected, now stuck around 87K wasting time.
From a structural perspective, if it doesn't break 86K, it can still barely be considered bullish. But the key is whether 87K can hold up to continue pushing 88K; if it can't stabilize at 87K, or if it spikes to 88K or 89K only to be slammed back down, it's terribly weak, and looking back at 85K is not surprising at all. If it can't hold 83.7K, then it can only be seen at 78K.
Ethereum is even less to say, the rebound is like constipation, unable to go up or down. It hasn't even touched the shadow above 3000, and the closing line is just a slowdown in the decline, which can't be considered strong at all.
On the hourly level, it's just a garbage box, and the upward correction isn't complete. 2984 to 3012 are all pressures. I can only say that for those who fantasize about Ethereum taking off from this position, being awake is better than anything else...
The advisor looks at the trend:
Currently, on the 1-hour level, a double bottom structure has formed, with short-term lows concentrated between 85.7K and 86.4K. This segment has already created a significant trading volume area; as long as this area doesn't break, the short term can still be seen as a bottom. If it can't hold, all rebound logic will be invalidated.
Because this wave is essentially a technical pullback, there are all sorts of pressures above you. 88K plus the 60-day moving average is the first resistance, and it's not something that can be crossed by mere fantasy.
If there is a pullback later, if the price can hold above the previously mentioned low point range and slowly push up, that would be an actionable opportunity. If it breaks down directly on the pullback, it can only indicate that the bulls are continuously weak.
The RSI is now around 47, looking neutral, and actually not strong at all. The bearish momentum has only slowed down, not disappeared. What to watch for next is not how strong the rebound is, but whether the selling pressure shows a significant reduction when the RSI approaches 30, that is the real signal.
First support at 86.4K, second support at 85.7K. These two positions are the core areas of the double bottom structure, and today's market battles will revolve around these two lines. In the short term, if there is a pullback, it is best not to lose the range from 86.7K to 87K, as losing it will directly compress the rebound space.
First resistance at 87.9K, second resistance at 88.7K. The area near 88K is strong pressure, being the high point before yesterday's close, and also the starting point for the market to weaken. Don't talk about breakthroughs without volume; if the volume doesn't keep up, it's just a false move. Only by standing firmly with volume can we qualify to look at the re-test of 90K.
12.17 advisor wave segment pre-buried:
Long position entry reference: not currently referenced.
Short position entry reference: 88000-88700 range short, target: 86400-85700
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just look at a few market situations and jump to conclusions. This market is filled with performers; today's long position screenshot, tomorrow's short position summary, it looks like 'catching tops and bottoms every time', but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger's trading logic must be consistent, coherent, and withstand scrutiny, not just jumping in when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; only through long-term observation and deep understanding can you distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
