ETH is facing a crucial battle tonight, with 3150 becoming the lifeline for bulls and bears. The impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike may be limited.

Ethereum (ETH) is currently at a critical position. After a continuous decline, its price found support around 2900 USD and rebounded. Tonight's market focus will be on whether ETH can effectively break through the resistance above.

Core bull-bear dividing line: 3150 USD

This position is generally viewed by analysts as a key point for short-term strength and weakness conversion. If the rebound cannot break through here, it may fall again. Important support below is in the 2900-2930 USD range, and if lost, the decline may deepen further.

Macro variables: The Bank of Japan's 'shot'

The Bank of Japan will hold a meeting on December 18-19, and the market expects a high probability of an interest rate hike. This has raised concerns about the unwinding of global carry trades, which may lead to funds flowing out of high-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies), putting pressure on the market.

However, most market views believe this impact may be relatively controllable, mainly because:

1. Adequate expectation: The interest rate hike has been widely discussed and priced in by the market.

2. Position reduction: The current scale of yen carry trades is already lower than last year.

Comprehensive judgment and operational warning

Therefore, while the Bank of Japan's actions may increase volatility, the possibility of 'crashing the market' is relatively low. However, tonight's U.S. non-farm data will be a greater source of uncertainty, potentially directly determining the short-term direction.

Key points integration

· ETH technical level: Resistance 3150 USD; Support 2900-2930 USD.

· Bank of Japan meeting: December 18-19, interest rate hike expected, impact may be partially digested.

· Tonight's core risk: U.S. non-farm employment data, which may trigger severe volatility.

This article integrates public market technical analysis and institutional macro views and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile, please make decisions cautiously.

If you have more specific questions about ETH's strategy in certain scenarios (such as whether to continue holding), I can provide further analytical perspectives. #ETH走势分析