#加密市场观察

predict.fun

is a decentralized prediction market platform on the BNB chain developed by former Binance employees and seasoned entrepreneurs in the crypto space, supported by YZi Labs incubation. It gained popularity due to mentions by Binance founder CZ on social media. Its core is to enhance capital efficiency through a 'prediction + earning' model. Here is a more comprehensive overview of the core information:

1. Core Mechanism and Architecture: The platform's core innovation is that user-staked funds for predictions can continuously earn income through revenue routing connected to relevant protocols. It also features the PredictDotLoan lending engine, allowing users to borrow to expand trading exposure and paired with an automatic refinancing bot to avoid forced liquidation. The trading adopts an order book model, suitable for binary and multi-result markets, which can reduce slippage and narrow bid-ask spreads, accommodating large transactions; settlement relies on UMA's optimistic oracle combined with manual verification by trusted media to ensure fair outcomes.

2. Platform Development and Ecological Background: The platform initially explored development based on the Blast ecosystem but ultimately chose to launch on the BNB chain, leveraging its vast retail user base and low transaction fee advantages. Founder dingaling has experience building Pancakeswap and operating NFT/DeFi projects, which supports the underlying platform development and community operation.

3. Operational Status: In the early stages after launch, it accumulated over 12,000 users, completing nearly 300,000 bets, with a total trading volume of approximately $300,000. However, the platform currently has only launched a small number of active markets and faces liquidity issues with BNB chain stablecoins. Compared to leading prediction platforms like Polymarket, which have trading volumes in the billions, there remains a significant scale gap.

4. User Participation Advantages: It supports predictions on various events such as sports, politics, and cryptocurrency trends, while also emphasizing a mobile-first, user-friendly interface that meets the needs of the general public to trade anytime, anywhere. Additionally, the extremely low gas fees on the BNB chain make the cost of each operation only a few cents, greatly lowering the participation threshold for ordinary users.