枯禅

#加密市场观察
Predict.fun
New project launch in the prediction market

$ASTER
2014 BTC trapped
2017 BNB trapped
2025 ASTER trapped

#加密市场观察
predict.fun
is a decentralized prediction market platform on the BNB chain developed by former Binance employees and seasoned entrepreneurs in the crypto space, supported by YZi Labs incubation. It gained popularity due to mentions by Binance founder CZ on social media. Its core is to enhance capital efficiency through a 'prediction + earning' model. Here is a more comprehensive overview of the core information:

1. Core Mechanism and Architecture: The platform's core innovation is that user-staked funds for predictions can continuously earn income through revenue routing connected to relevant protocols. It also features the PredictDotLoan lending engine, allowing users to borrow to expand trading exposure and paired with an automatic refinancing bot to avoid forced liquidation. The trading adopts an order book model, suitable for binary and multi-result markets, which can reduce slippage and narrow bid-ask spreads, accommodating large transactions; settlement relies on UMA's optimistic oracle combined with manual verification by trusted media to ensure fair outcomes.
2. Platform Development and Ecological Background: The platform initially explored development based on the Blast ecosystem but ultimately chose to launch on the BNB chain, leveraging its vast retail user base and low transaction fee advantages. Founder dingaling has experience building Pancakeswap and operating NFT/DeFi projects, which supports the underlying platform development and community operation.
3. Operational Status: In the early stages after launch, it accumulated over 12,000 users, completing nearly 300,000 bets, with a total trading volume of approximately $300,000. However, the platform currently has only launched a small number of active markets and faces liquidity issues with BNB chain stablecoins. Compared to leading prediction platforms like Polymarket, which have trading volumes in the billions, there remains a significant scale gap.
4. User Participation Advantages: It supports predictions on various events such as sports, politics, and cryptocurrency trends, while also emphasizing a mobile-first, user-friendly interface that meets the needs of the general public to trade anytime, anywhere. Additionally, the extremely low gas fees on the BNB chain make the cost of each operation only a few cents, greatly lowering the participation threshold for ordinary users.

#预测市场将如何发展？
predict.fun is a platform focused on cryptocurrency price prediction and market data analysis, with core services revolving around forecasting the trends of digital currencies. The specific features are as follows:

1. Core Functions

- Price Prediction Tool: Provides forecasts for short-term/long-term price trends of mainstream cryptocurrencies (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, etc.) and some altcoins based on algorithmic models (such as machine learning, technical indicator analysis), supporting customizable time dimensions (hours, days, weeks).
- Market Data Visualization: Integrates real-time market data, historical candlestick charts, trading volume, volatility, and more, presented in chart form to assist users in judging market trends.
- Signal Alerts: Provides buy/sell signal prompts, with some functions based on technical indicators (MA, RSI, MACD) crossovers or unusual trading volume triggers.
- Project Analysis: Briefly interprets the fundamentals, on-chain data, and community activity of certain cryptocurrency projects to support predictions.

2. Platform Characteristics

- Algorithm-Driven: Prediction results rely on preset quantitative models rather than manual analysis, with a higher update frequency (some cryptocurrencies updated in real-time).
- Free + Paid Tiered: Basic prediction data and standard market charts are freely available, while high-precision model predictions, exclusive signal alerts, and customized analysis reports require subscription to a paid plan.
- Community Attribute: Built-in discussion area for users to share their views on prediction results, with some content displayed after platform screening.

3. Important Reminder

- The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the prediction results from predict.fun are merely algorithm outputs and do not constitute investment advice. Actual trading should be independently judged based on multiple factors (policies, industry dynamics, project risks).
- Some users have reported that their short-term prediction accuracy is significantly affected by sudden market news, and the reference value of long-term predictions is relatively limited, requiring rational consideration.

#预测市场将如何发展？
The prediction market is primarily centered around event contracts, featuring leading platforms in the cryptocurrency space like Polymarket and traditional financial giants such as CME, as well as many niche platforms focusing on specific areas. Below is an introduction to mainstream and representative platforms:

1. Polymarket: A veteran crypto prediction platform launched in 2020, which gained significant attention due to its predictions for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. It supports settlement in stablecoin USDC, allowing users to bet on elections, sports events, economic events, and received a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.
2. Kalshi: The first CFTC-regulated event contract exchange in the U.S., following a compliance route. It focuses on predictions for sports and macroeconomic events, integrating with Robinhood to lower user participation barriers, and gained widespread attention for its real-time odds screen during the New York City mayoral election.
3. True Markets: Merging news media with market sentiment, users can bet on real-world events, employing a three-stage dispute resolution mechanism to ensure fair outcomes. Vitalik Buterin has also purchased a Patron NFT from its platform.
4. Bettensor: A decentralized sports prediction platform based on the Bittensor network, distributing simulated balances daily for betting on event outcomes. Predictions are calculated based on short-term successful betting returns, encouraging users to predict accurately in various ways.
5. Offmarket: Built on the Base blockchain, focusing on predicting the outcomes of startup company IPOs, allowing users to turn their judgments about private company developments into trading opportunities, precisely serving users interested in the venture capital field.
6. CME and FanDuel joint platform: A representative entry of traditional financial giants, created by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in collaboration with sports prediction platform FanDuel, initially focusing on economic indicator-related prediction products, with plans to launch sports contracts later.
7. Tmr.news: An innovative news prediction platform where users can bet on guessing the next day's front-page headline of The New York Times. Rewards are distributed based on the semantic similarity between the predicted headline and the actual headline, and it ensures transparency through blockchain encryption verification.
8. Sweep: A gamified prediction platform centered around live broadcast content, where users can place real-time bets on kill counts, challenge results, and more during live events, utilizing a dual currency system of “Coins” (casual interaction) and “Sweep Cash” (redeemable cash).

$BTC $ASTER

Rise

$ASTER
🚀❤️Listen to your wife,
💊🍷Follow the boss!!!
🚀You can't go wrong!!!

$ASTER
🚜 Bulldozer
🚀

$ASTER
The Profound Impact on Aster

1. Ecological Positioning and Differentiation Barriers
- Aster has become the decentralized exchange at the core of the USD1 ecosystem, forming a unique label in the stablecoin sector, distinguishing itself from traditional DEXs that focus on USDT/USDC, seizing the traffic entry point associated with Trump-related crypto assets, and can long-term bind to the growth dividends of the USD1 ecosystem.
- If more USD1 trading pairs continue to be launched, a trading ecosystem centered around USD1 will gradually be built, establishing a dedicated user circle in the North American crypto market (especially among conservative investor groups).
2. Long-term Expansion of Users and Capital Pool
- Leveraging the traffic effect of the Trump family, Aster can attract a large number of traditional financial investors, Trump supporters, and other non-native crypto users, achieving diversification in user structure and breaking through the traffic bottleneck in the DEX industry.
- The implementation of USD1 trading pairs will bring continuous capital accumulation, expand the scale of the platform's capital pool, and thereby enhance Aster's trading depth and competitiveness in the DEX sector, forming a positive cycle of 'capital - users - trading.'
3. Enhancement of Brand and Industry Discourse Power
- The collaboration with WLFI (World Liberty Financial) allows Aster to stand out from many DEXs, gaining the attention of mainstream crypto media and institutions, with brand awareness spreading from the industry to cross-border fields.
- If USD1 becomes an important participant in the compliant stablecoin market in the United States, Aster, as its core trading channel, will gain more industry discourse power in discussions on North American crypto regulatory policies, and even influence the rule-making of the USD1 ecosystem.
4. Synergistic Effects of Compliance and Business Expansion
- Due to USD1's connection to the American political sphere, Aster will place greater emphasis on compliance layout, actively adapting to U.S. crypto regulatory requirements, laying the groundwork for entering the compliant crypto market in the U.S. and developing institutional business.
- Based on the cooperation experience with USD1, Aster can replicate this model to collaborate with other compliant stablecoins and local crypto projects, gradually shifting its business focus towards the North American market and achieving breakthroughs in regional strategies.

$ASTER 涨万倍

🚀

$ASTER

1. Aster platform's stock perpetual contracts now have zero fees!
2. All stock perpetual contracts (NVIDIA NVDA, Tesla TSLA, Amazon AMZN, Apple AAPL, etc.) have zero fees for both takers and makers.
3. Regarding the Aster Harvest Phase 4 points rules:
- Stock perpetual contract takers: zero fees, no points
- Stock perpetual contract makers: zero fees + points (providing rewards for order book construction)
4. This is not a promotional activity, but aims to create the deepest on-chain liquidity for stock perpetual contracts.
5. If you want to trade the volatility of large tech stocks with zero friction, the current window period has opened.

Background and Interpretation

- Aster: A decentralized trading platform (DEX) focused on stock perpetual contract trading, and this zero fee policy is an important measure to enhance on-chain liquidity and attract users to participate in order book construction.
- Stock perpetual contracts: belong to the category of derivative trading, tracking the price fluctuations of leading U.S. stocks (like NVDA, TSLA, etc.), allowing investors to trade on margin without actually holding the stocks.
- maker/taker: maker is the party providing liquidity by placing orders, taker is the party consuming liquidity by taking orders, and the platform gives point rewards to makers to encourage users to increase order book depth and enhance market liquidity.

$ASTER
CZ's core reasons for turning towards DeFi can be summarized in four points,
ranked by priority as follows:

1. Regulatory Hard Constraints: Forced to 'Change Tracks'

In the plea agreement with the U.S. government, CZ is permanently banned from operating or managing the Binance centralized exchange (CEX), which is the most direct driving factor. As a major shareholder, he can no longer lead the daily operations of CEX, but still needs to find new growth points for the Binance ecosystem, making DeFi the best choice to continue influence under compliance prerequisites.

2. Strategic Positioning: Betting on the Future of the Industry

CZ clearly judges that 'DEX will exceed CEX in the future.' The open, low-cost, and censorship-resistant characteristics of DeFi align with the essence of blockchain's 'decentralization'; furthermore, the on-chain derivatives sector is still in its early stages (with only about 18% share by 2025), and the leading pattern is yet to be determined, making Aster and similar Perp DEXs poised to seize first-mover advantages and become a 'decentralized extension' of the Binance ecosystem.

3. Continuation of Ecological Value: Replicating the Successful Logic of BNB

The core of BNB is to bind the traffic and revenue of Binance CEX, forming a closed loop of 'ecological growth → token appreciation → user holding.' CZ hopes to replicate this model through Aster: deeply coordinating ecosystem resources such as Binance wallet, chain, and assets with Aster (e.g., 'coin listing outpost,' 'exclusive airdrops,' 'wallet default DEX'), allowing ASTER to become a new ecological value capture tool while hedging against CEX regulatory risks.

4. Operational and Cost Advantages: Reducing Compliance Pressure

DeFi platforms (especially DEX) do not require large-scale KYC, compliance, and legal teams, resulting in lower operational costs, and under the backdrop of tightening global regulations, the compliance risks of decentralized structures are relatively controllable. This aligns with CZ's philosophy of 'open, low-cost' products and helps to avoid the ongoing compliance pressures faced by CEXs regarding licenses, anti-money laundering, and more.

$LUNA Do Kwon was sentenced to 15 years in prison by a New York court due to the collapse of the Terra-Luna case. According to TechFlow news on December 12, as reported by Theblock, Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon was sentenced to 15 years in prison on Thursday for fraud related to the collapse of the Terra-Luna ecosystem, which is worth $40 billion. U.S. District Court Judge Paul Engelmayer stated that Kwon 'chose to lie' and 'made the wrong choice.' Kwon was criminally charged in March 2023 with accusations including conspiracy to commit fraud, commodity fraud, telecom fraud, securities fraud, conspiracy to commit fraud, and conspiracy to engage in market manipulation and money laundering. He subsequently pleaded guilty to telecom fraud and conspiracy fraud in August 2024. Without a plea agreement, Kwon could face up to 135 years in prison if found guilty on all nine counts. After agreeing to plead guilty to two counts, the maximum sentence he faces has been reduced to