Non-farm data distortion: What we are trading is 'expectations', not numbers!
Today, the U.S. November non-farm employment data was released, and the market generally expected an increase of only about 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.4%-4.5%, showing an overall weak tone. But the key issue is not the numbers themselves, but rather the 'credibility' of these numbers has already been significantly discounted. Due to the previous government shutdown, the unemployment rate data for October is historically missing, and some CPI data cannot be re-collected, while the survey weights for November have also been adjusted. The officials themselves admit that the data errors will be relatively large in the short term.
This means that what the market is currently trading is not an accurate employment increase, but rather 'expectations of policy direction' and 'changes in overall risk sentiment'. Any result below expectations could lead the market to bet on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in advance.
For the cryptocurrency market, this has dual implications: on one hand, the anticipation of a rate cut is favorable for liquidity imagination, providing mid-term support for assets like BTC; on the other hand, the amplification of data uncertainty may trigger sharp short-term fluctuations in interest rates, the dollar, and the cryptocurrency market, making leveraged funds more susceptible to being washed out.
At this stage of 'low credibility macro data', the core of the game is no longer the good or bad of the non-farm data itself, but whether it is enough to change the Federal Reserve's policy narrative. Retail investors need to be wary of liquidity sweeps and high volatility before and after events, focusing on whether the market will take advantage of macro uncertainty to complete a wave of deleveraging and repricing. In simple terms, looking at the direction is now more important than looking at the numbers.
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