Brothers, pay attention! Tonight at 9:30 PM, the U.S. will release two non-farm payroll data at once: the regular data for November and the 'incomplete version' of the October data that has been delayed due to the government shutdown. It's like drawing two hole cards in a poker game, and the cryptocurrency market might explode. #美联储降息

Last week, the Federal Reserve just cut interest rates, and Powell has been hinting at downward risks in the job market. The key point to watch tonight: is the wolf really here? The probability is high that the new jobs for November will only be 50,000, and the unemployment rate may soar to 4.5%. Poor data means the Federal Reserve has reason to continue cutting rates and injecting liquidity, potentially leading to more liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, which could stimulate risk assets.

The incomplete data for October itself has errors; don't just focus on the numbers, this is more of a 'filter'. The market is now expecting a soft landing scenario; as long as there isn't a cliff-like negative growth, it will be interpreted as a sign that rate cuts are stable.

In summary: don't bet on precise numbers tonight, just bet on the expectation gap. Bad but not ridiculously bad = good for the cryptocurrency market; ridiculously good = bad, because the Federal Reserve might tighten. The high probability is that 'bad news has been fully priced in as good news', and the spring of liquidity easing is on the way. #加密市场观察