Others fear when I am greedy, but when everyone is fearful, even greed requires courage.
Today, when I opened the data panel, the sea of green funding rates made me think I had arrived at the prairie. Retail investors are frantically shorting, and the market sentiment indicator is almost about to break the lower limit of the screen. Even the aunt next door knows to ask: 'Is Bitcoin going to zero?'
But let me tell you, amid all this panic, I discovered something interesting: the whales this week not only did not sell off, but instead are quietly accumulating. The Bitcoin supply on exchanges is decreasing, while the coins in the wallets of large holders are increasing. This market is becoming more and more interesting.
1. Why has the funding rate turned negative across the board? The truth may not be what you think.
The negative turn in funding rates appears to reflect bearish market sentiment, where bulls are willing to pay fees to bears. But a deeper analysis may reveal a completely different situation.
The sharp decline in current funding rates is directly related to the market-wide liquidation in October 2025. In that flash crash, perpetual futures open interest plummeted, decreasing by 32% in USD terms. The leverage within the system has been significantly cleared, and the market has entered a phase of stability and repricing.
Compared to the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, this time the funding rates remained unusually 'calm' when Bitcoin hit new highs. This is not due to a lack of interest, but because the market structure has fundamentally changed. Institutional arbitrage funds and protocols like Ethena are rapidly correcting any funding rate discrepancies.
Imagine, while retail investors are still anxiously watching short-term price fluctuations, institutions have already built a sophisticated system where any deviation from normal funding rates is quickly absorbed by arbitrage machines. This is why the current funding rates seem 'bearish', but in reality reflect a maturing market.
2. What are whales doing when others are panicking? Secretly swiping their credit cards to buy coins!
Just as retail investors are rushing to cut their losses and leave the market, on-chain data reveals a completely different story: the whales are quietly taking action.
In the past 30 days, the group holding 10,000 to 100,000 bitcoins not only did not reduce their holdings but instead increased them by about 3%. This category of 'small whales' (holding 100 to 1,000 bitcoins) has increased their holdings by 23% over the past year.
What's even more interesting is that this accumulation pattern is not an isolated phenomenon, but rather a widespread rhythm:
XRP: Whales have net inflows exceeding $2.4 billion in the past 30 days.
Old-school Layer 1: ADA has seen a rare 'whale rotation buying'.
DeFi blue chips: Whales' holdings in UNI and AAVE have reached all-time highs.
Whales are taking advantage of market panic to collect quality assets, a behavior pattern strikingly similar to the bottom of the bear market in 2018-2019. At that time, whales steadily accumulated during the market crash, laying the groundwork for the subsequent bull market.
3. The more panic in the market, the closer the opportunity? Insights from historical data.
Reviewing the historical data of Bitcoin funding rates, we find an interesting pattern: extreme funding rate events are often the best contrarian indicators.
Data shows that when funding rates are in extremely negative territory, the investment returns over the next three months are often significantly better than normal periods. The current negative funding rate environment, from a historical perspective, may actually be a positive tactical entry point.
The futures market is also sending positive signals. Bitcoin futures open interest and funding rates are both at oversold levels, while the unrealized profit and loss ratio (NUPL) has dropped to levels seen during the 2025 spring tariff crisis and the August 2024 yen plunge.
Every instance of market panic accumulates energy for the next rise. As leverage is cleared, the market foundation becomes healthier, and the basis for a rebound becomes more solid.
4. As an old player, what am I thinking now?
In the face of the current market, I hold on to the old saying: 'Buy when no one is watching, sell when the crowd is roaring.'
When market sentiment has been fully expressed, the window for a rebound quietly opens. The current market environment reminds me of the 2008 global financial crisis, where panic-driven crashes were often followed by corrective rebounds.
But this time, I have three deeper reflections:
Focus on projects with real income: Whales are positioning themselves in sectors with 'real income' or 'policy benefit certainty'. The UNI fee switch has passed, and AAVE's real income has risen; these fundamental improvements are the core support for prices.
Prioritize long-term sectors: AI, modularization, storage, and other long-term sectors have been preemptively positioned by whales 2-3 quarters in advance. Short-term fluctuations do not affect long-term trends.
Maintaining liquidity is key: Market liquidity has not yet recovered, and any unexpected fluctuations could be amplified. Holding a certain cash position is essential to actively seize opportunities when they arise.
5. Conclusion: Stay calm, don't cut losses at the bottom!
The market always cycles, from euphoria to panic, and then from panic to recovery. The current funding rates are all green, which could very well be the darkness before the dawn.
As demand channels like ETFs may recover, and the market structure becomes healthier after leverage is cleared, the current market is in a typical tactical layout window.
Don't forget, the darkest moments often come just before the dawn. When others are panicking, perhaps we should keep our eyes wide open and stay calm; we may just find opportunities in this chaos.
The market will always test right and wrong, and what we need is just a little more patience.
What do you think? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments—is it time to cut losses or buy on dips? Give a follow.@币圈罗盘 #巨鲸动向 $BTC
