币圈罗盘

Today, a 2026 outlook report from 21Shares, a leading crypto asset management firm, went viral. The report is filled with enticing figures: stablecoins exceeding $1 trillion, ETPs reaching $400 billion, RWA (Real-World Assets) reaching $500 billion… It's like a glittering map of wealth is slowly unfolding before you. Many have already begun celebrating, as if these figures will be achieved tomorrow.
But please allow me to pour some cold water on your enthusiasm before you get carried away. As a veteran who has eaten cold bread in a bear market and witnessed too many "this time is different" myths shattered in a bull market, my job is not to paint a picture of paradise for you, but to help you identify the disguised cliffs on the road to paradise.

This morning, a seemingly "unremarkable" piece of news pierced my back like an ice pick, Ant Financial announced that its AI risk control system has processed $15 trillion in payment transactions with an accuracy rate of 90%, and has developed new protocols in collaboration with Google, MasterCard, and VISA.
Many people's first reaction is: "The giants are entering, blockchain is a big boon!" But I immediately recalled that glorious financial report before Nokia was disrupted by the iPhone.
When the giant of traditional finance begins to skillfully wield the weapon of "AI + blockchain," the "disruptor narrative" of our crypto world is entering its most dangerous moment, not being strangled, but being "reconciled" and "surpassed."

今早看到瑞银大佬对港交所明年IPO市场的豪迈预测,3000亿募资额、全球榜首、科技与AI公司云集。朋友圈里不少传统金融的朋友已经开始欢呼，仿佛看到了新一轮资产盛宴的开席。但作为一个泡在币圈的老兵，我的第一反应却是：快，检查一下你的稳定币仓位，系好安全带。
这并非唱反调，而是当主流金融市场锣鼓喧天时，我们这些在边缘创新市场淘金的人，必须多问一句：这桌盛宴，会从我碗里分走多少肉？
一、 热闹是他们的，但流动性可能是“借”你的
我们必须要看懂这条新闻的B面逻辑：
“抽水效应”的隐形威胁：150-200家公司，3000亿港元的融资规模。这笔钱从哪里来？不会是凭空印出来的。它必然来自全球，特别是亚太地区的投资池。当大量热钱被“高科技、人工智能”这些性感叙事吸引到港股IPO市场时，同一个资金池里，流向加密市场的“活水”就可能相应减少。​ 这好比一个水池，传统金融的管子开大了，其他管子的水流自然会受影响。“估值洼地”是个危险诱惑：报告中提到“大中华区股票估值较美股有折让，具有吸引力”。这会让全球配置的资金重新审视“性价比”。部分风险偏好相对保守、但又想追逐成长的资金，可能会从波动巨大的加密资产中分流一部分，去追逐这些“更便宜”的科技股。资金永远是逐利且挑剔的，当传统市场出现看似确定性更高的机会时，加密市场的吸引力会面临考验。
二、 对加密市场的真实影响：结构性分化加剧
因此，我的判断是，这不会导致加密市场系统性下跌，但会引发和加速内部的结构性分化。
对主流资产（BTC、ETH）：影响相对中性偏空。它们作为“数字黄金”和“核心基础设施”，拥有全球性叙事和更强的资金粘性，但短期可能会面临新增资金放缓的压力。它们的走势，将更紧密地与美联储的降息节奏、全球宏观经济流动性挂钩，而非区域性的IPO热潮。对“香港概念”及亚太关联度高的加密资产：这可能是一个“利好出尽”或“预期兑现”的节点。过去一段时间，任何与香港金融开放、Web3政策相关的消息都可能刺激相关板块。但当传统港交所真正开始大规模吸纳科技公司、吸引全球目光时，资金可能会发现一个更合规、更“容易理解”的替代选择。那些仅凭概念炒作、缺乏实质业务进展的“区域型”加密项目，将面临巨大考验。对真正的去中心化创新赛道（DeFi、真正的基础设施公链）：影响微乎其微。因为这些项目的基本面与港交所是否火爆无关，它们争夺的是对“下一代全球开放金融和价值互联网”有信仰的长期资本。它们的对手，从来不是港交所，而是旧有的、效率低下的金融体系。
三、 我们的应对策略：回归本质，保持定力
面对这种外部环境的变迁，我们该怎么做？
警惕“虹吸效应”，但不必恐慌：承认资金存在竞争关系，保持清醒。但这不等于立刻清仓，而是应该重新审视你持仓的资产，其核心叙事是否足够强大、是否具有不可替代性。如果仅仅是因为“香港概念”而买入，现在或许是重新评估的时候。紧盯“真正的水源地”：加密市场最大的活水，始终是全球美元流动性的潮汐。因此，你的核心关注点，应该依然是美联储的货币政策、美国财政部的发债情况、以及美股的risk-on/risk-off情绪。港交所的盛宴，只是全球资金流动的一个支流，不要因为支流的热闹，忽略了主航道的水位。利用分化，优化持仓：如果市场因资金分流预期而产生波动，对于真正看好的核心资产（BTC、ETH及顶级公链），那可能是分批布局的“黄金坑”。而对于那些纯靠区域政策预期炒作的标的，应考虑减仓或调仓。
金融世界的热闹从不间断，今天港交所，明天也许又是别的交易所。作为加密投资者，我们最珍贵的品质不是追逐每一个热点，而是穿透喧嚣，牢牢抓住决定我们这个市场命运的命脉——全球流动性、技术突破、以及真正的网络效应。
当别人为3000亿的IPO狂欢时，我们要冷静地检查，自己的船是否还行驶在正确的、深邃的主航道上。
如果你也认为，在这个信息爆炸的时代，保持独立的判断力比追逐消息更重要，那么请关注我@币圈罗盘 ​ 我会持续为你剥离噪音，聚焦核心变量。
让我们在复杂的世界里，做更清醒的决策者。
#加密市场反弹 $ETH

This morning when I came across this news, I almost sprayed my coffee. A Spanish listed company named Vanadi Coffee 'seriously' announced that it had increased its holdings by 10 bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 129, and thus 'honorably' ranked 100th on the global list of publicly traded companies by holdings.
My first reaction was not excitement, but rather a desire to laugh. After laughing, there was a deep sense of vigilance.
When you see one cockroach, there may already be a hundred in the dark. But when you see the hundredth cockroach, you have to ask yourself: has this room become a cockroach nest?

Just now, the world's richest man, tech mogul, and owner of Twitter (now X platform), Musk, once again ignited a global powder keg of public opinion with just a few short words, conveniently raising the blood pressure of political elites worldwide. His controversial remarks about 'Nazi symbols' under the EU flag acted like a precisely placed opinion bomb, causing mainstream media figures to be thrown into chaos.
However, just as politicians and editorialists are busy with their critiques, we, the 'old Chinese medicine practitioners of the crypto world,' exchanged knowing smiles and silently opened the on-chain data browser. Why? Because we are too familiar with this script. When Musk begins to play the role of 'political reality show director,' the volatility of sentiment in the crypto market is often not far from an explosion.

Hello, I am the compass.
Just last week, I received two messages. One was from my university classmate group, where a brother who used to sleep above me shared a screenshot with the caption: 'This month has been lucky, +50%.' The other was from a friend who runs a restaurant, who sent four words at three in the morning: 'Back to zero, tired.'
You see, the cryptocurrency world is so magical. On the left is the enticing legend of financial freedom, and on the right is the silent warning of losing everything. At this moment, you might be holding the 3000 yuan you saved from your summer job, standing at this crossroads, heart racing, eager to try.

Friends, I am the compass.
In my six years as an analyst, the most concerning consultations are often not about "what to buy", but about "how to safely withdraw money". Last week, two fans sent me screenshots of their accounts being frozen; they did not make operational mistakes, but due to improper payment methods, the hard-earned six-figure funds were instantly "frozen".
Today, we won't discuss market predictions, but rather a crucial question that determines whether you can truly "take away profits": How to safely navigate the unseen minefield of the "last mile" when digital assets turn into RMB?

朋友们，我是罗盘。
入行第八年，我抽屉里攒了四本交易笔记，每一页都记录着同样的故事开头，"这次我感觉能赚"。但翻到背面，往往是红笔批注的"情绪化交易"、"违背规则"、"认知不足"。在这个每分钟都有人暴富也有人归零的战场，我花了八年才真正明白：币圈奖励的不是最聪明的人，而是最能遵守自己规则的人。
今天我想分享的，不是让你明天资产翻倍的"秘籍"，而是一套让我从不断踩坑到稳定盈利的"生存系统"。它简单到你会怀疑，但残酷的是，大多数人连最简单的规则都执行不了。
一、 重新定义"认知"：市场在用价格和你说话
刚入门时，我和所有人一样，沉迷于追逐各种"内幕"、"解读"和"大佬观点"。直到账户连续亏损后才顿悟：市场上99%的噪音，都是为了干扰你的判断。
真正的认知，是学会倾听市场自己的语言，那就是价格。每一根K线，每一次放量，每一次突破，都是无数真金白银投票的结果。当我停止预测市场，开始学习解读市场已经走出的轨迹时，我的交易才真正开始。
核心转变：从问"接下来会涨吗？"变成问"市场现在在告诉我什么？"
二、 小资金的"隐形王牌"：你比鲸鱼更自由
很多人觉得本金小是劣势，我却认为这是新手最大的战略优势。大资金建仓如同航母调头，而小资金是快艇，能瞬间进出，灵活应对。
但优势也是双刃剑，你必须避开两个致命陷阱：
频繁交易是慢性自杀：我曾统计自己的数据，每天前两单胜率超65%，第三单后骤降到30%以下。过度交易消耗的不仅是手续费，更是你的注意力和决策质量。不设止损等于自杀：小资金经不起任何一次深套。我的铁律是：任何单笔亏损不得超过总资金2%。这意味着，哪怕连续错十次，你仍有80%本金可以翻身。
三、 我的"极简"交易框架
经过多年试错，我沉淀出一套简单到极致的系统：
1. 趋势判定（只看三条线）
3日均线向上 = 短期热度30日均线向上 = 中期趋势成立80日均线向上 = 主升浪可能开启我只在均线系统呈多头排列时，才考虑做多。
2. 关键位置比方向更重要
不要猜"涨还是跌"，要问"在哪里涨，在哪里跌"。支撑与阻力位是市场的战略要地，价格在这些位置的表现，比任何指标都真实。
3. 信号聚焦（两种形态足矣）
吞没形态：出现在关键位，意味着多空力量逆转孕线形态：出现在趋势末端，预示即将变盘记住：形态本身不值钱，值钱的是它出现的位置。
四、 给小资金的真诚建议
如果你的本金在几千到几万之间，请记住：
1. 仓位配置的"532法则"
50%配置主流资产（如BTC/ETH），这是你的"压舱石"30%深耕1-2个你真正理解的赛道（研究团队、社区、数据）20%留作机动资金，用于定投或极端机会这保证了无论市场如何，你都有牌可打。
2. 远离两大"财富粉碎机"
杠杆合约：小资金玩杠杆，等于在台风天开纸船空气小币：你可能对9次，错1次就归零。不懂不碰，是最高级的风控。
3. 建立你的"操作纪律"
每天交易不超过2次盈利超20%必部分提现任何交易，进场前必设止损规则越简单，执行越有力。
五、 心态是最后的护城河
用闲钱投资,这是我给所有新手最真诚的建议。只有不影响生活的钱，才能让你在市场波动中保持理性。
每周花一小时复盘：不是看赚了多少，而是检视每一笔操作是否遵守了规则。盈利的交易可能只是运气，而遵守规则的亏损，才是真正的进步。
八年来，我见过太多人带着暴富梦入场，最终因无法遵守最基本的纪律而黯然离场。这个市场最讽刺的地方在于：那些追求"快"的人，最终都慢了；而愿意接受"慢"的人，反而跑到了最后。
币圈没有神话，只有一步一个脚印的修行。所谓的"稳定盈利"，不过是找到一套适合你的规则，然后像机器人一样去执行，与贪婪和恐惧隔绝。
如果你也在这条路上摸索，感到孤独或困惑，欢迎关注我@币圈罗盘 ，一个专注于交易系统与心法修炼的实战派。​
投资是一场无限游戏，真正的胜利不是某一次赚多少，而是你始终能留在牌桌上。
#加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH

Hello, I am the compass.
Today we won't talk about K-line charts or macro trends; I want to tell you a true story. You might have heard a similar version of the first half of this story: a young person, with a modest startup capital, rides the waves of the market, and the account numbers roll to a dizzying height. Yes, that was once me.
But today, I want to tell you the second half of this story, the part that very few people are willing to mention: when the tide goes out, how I fell heavily from that dizzying height to the bottom, where I had to sell assets to fill the gaps. That experience was worth 3000 million.

各位，我是罗盘。
今天清晨，当无数人揉着惺忪睡眼，看到“美联储降息”的头条新闻，满心欢喜地打开交易软件时，却被一根突如其来的“插针”结结实实地捅了个透心凉。很多人瞬间懵了，脑海里蹦出三个大字：不 科 学！
说好的“放水即大涨”呢？别急，今天我们不念金融经，就聊点实在的。这根本不是假消息，而是一场教科书级别的 “预期屠杀”。市场用最冷酷的方式，给我们上了一堂关于“听其言，观其行”的实战课。
真相一：这不是“惊喜派对”，而是“散场铃声”
想象一场顶级拍卖会。所有人都提前一个月收到内幕消息：今晚将压轴拍卖一颗绝世宝石（降息）。​ 于是，精明的收藏家们早在两周前就携重金入场，默默推高竞价，只为在锤子落下的那一刻，将宝石转手卖给那些听到消息才匆匆赶来的“土豪”。
这个过程，在华尔街被称为 “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News”。
今天凌晨的官宣，就是拍卖师落锤的瞬间。锤响不是开始的信号，而是前期所有埋伏、所有预期一次性兑现的信号。获利的巨鲸们从容“交货”离场，留下一地鸡毛和追高进来的散户面面相觑。你听到的是“历史性降息”，市场执行的却是“利好出尽”的冰冷剧本。
真相二：真正的“魔鬼”藏在未来的蓝图里
如果只是获利了结，行情本不该如此惨烈。真正让市场脊背发凉、多头连夜撤军的，是美联储随公告一同发布的那张 “未来路线点阵图”。
图中赫然显示：2026年，预期的降息可能仅有可怜的一次。
这无异于一盆冰水，浇灭了市场最狂热的幻想。此前所有人狂欢的底层逻辑，是一个美好的“降息周期”叙事：今年降，明年猛降，海量廉价美元如潮水般涌入，推高一切风险资产。
而今天，美联储亲手调整了叙事的终章：水龙头只会拧开一丝缝，绝无可能变成瀑布。​ 对于比特币这样靠全球流动性“供养”的资产而言，最大的上涨预期,持续大放水，被釜底抽薪了。
真相三：分裂的央行，是不确定性的放大器
本次决议中，出现了三张鲜明的反对票。这在以往共识度极高的美联储会议上极为罕见。这像一个刺耳的警报，它告诉市场：顶层决策者内部对未来产生了严重分歧，有人担忧降息会重新引燃通胀的烈焰。
这对于市场意味着什么？意味着未来的政策路径将充满争吵和变数。“不确定性”是资本最厌恶的东西。当连制定游戏规则的人自己都吵得不可开交时，最聪明的资金会选择：先离场观望，等你们吵出个结果再说。
老李的推演与你的行动指南
1. 后续走势的核心逻辑：
市场将进入一个 “预期重构期”。短期（1-4周）内，单边牛市幻想可以搁置了。行情大概率会陷入 “上有顶、下有底”的复杂震荡。多空双方会反复拉扯，用波动清洗不坚定的筹码。直到下一个决定性变量（如通胀数据明确走低）出现，才能选择新方向。
2. 给你三条当下的“保命”思考：
立刻戒掉“看新闻标题炒币”的习惯：从今天起记住，当一则利好消息人尽皆知时，它通常已失去交易价值，甚至变成了陷阱。你要学会判断市场的“预期”走到了哪一步。接受“复杂震荡市”的现实，调整策略：在宏观叙事明朗前，用震荡策略应对：急跌不恐慌，急涨不追高。盈利预期要降低，止损纪律要绷紧。现金为王，耐心是金：在这种高不确定性环境中，满仓梭哈等于自杀。保留足够比例的现金，不仅是为了规避风险，更是为了在下一轮共识形成时，你还有弹药可以扣动扳机。
今天这堂课，学费是市场集体支付的。但它再次印证了那个朴素的真理：在这个市场，你所知道的“常识”，往往正是等着收割你的锋利镰刀。
如果你觉得老李的拆解能帮你穿透信息迷雾，更冷静地看待市场，请务必关注@币圈罗盘 。​ 我无法预测每一分价格，但我希望能持续为你提供解读市场预期与情绪的逻辑框架。
在众人为消息狂欢或恐慌时，让我们学习如何冷静地计算“预期差”。这才是长期生存，并最终带走利润的唯一方式。
#加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH

Brothers, wake up! If you are currently staring at the K-line as if looking at your ex's chat history, feeling tangled, afraid of a pullback when it rises and scared of the abyss when it falls, then congratulations, you are right in the 'trap for retail investors' in the crypto world. I used to be like this too, during the bull market in 2023, chasing hot trends until I was exhausted, turning my initial capital of 10,000 USDT into 3,000 USDT in half a year, it was tragic. I stayed up late every day refreshing exchanges, and when a hot trend emerged, I went all in, only to end up either trapped or liquidated. Haha, looking back now, I wasn’t trading cryptocurrencies, I was just a free laborer for the whales! But later, I learned my lesson and invented the 'Three-Step Steady Method', which successfully pulled my account back to 25,000 USDT without ever being liquidated. This is purely personal experience sharing, not a myth; I just want you to take fewer detours and get more beauty sleep. 😏

Hello everyone, I am the Compass.
In the cryptocurrency world, where wealth myths and shattered stories unfold daily, I have spent a full decade. I have seen some people grow their accounts a hundredfold overnight, and I have seen more quietly return to zero in the next fluctuation. What impresses me most are not those dazzling numbers, but the experience of a friend who once started with 2400 U and gradually rolled his assets up to 38,000 U amidst the market's turmoil.
No insider information, no metaphysics. His story is similar to my own journey from 5000 U to where I am today, validating a truth: in this rapidly changing jungle, those who survive and move steadily forward often rely not on the sharpest spear, but on the sturdiest shield.

Friends, I am the compass.
Almost every month, I receive the same question in the backend: 'Old Luo, I only have 10,000 in capital, how can I quickly roll it into one million in the crypto circle?'
Eight years ago, I asked myself the exact same question. At that time, I was staring at the flickering candlestick chart, like staring at a game console, firmly believing that the next fluctuation would be my opportunity. I stayed up late, anxious, and traded frequently until my account balance told me a cruel truth: the most expensive tuition in the market is mistaking 'diligence' for 'ability.'
I truly had an epiphany when I accepted a counterintuitive fact: in this zero-sum game jungle, 'surviving' is not a state, but a high-level skill that needs deliberate practice.

Friends, I am the compass.
Eight years ago, I entered this bizarre market with fifty thousand borrowed dollars and an unrealistic dream of getting rich quickly. Today, my assets have reached a level I once dared not imagine. But if you think this is a story about 'courage' and 'luck', you are mistaken.
This is a report about 'survival'. I spent eight years in the world's most brutal 'mine-sweeping game' in the crypto world, meticulously noting down where things would 'explode'. Today, I want to show you my map.

I have seen too many people rush into this market with dreams of changing their fate, only to leave in silence with broken accounts. Whenever someone asks me, 'How can one turn things around in a desperate situation?' I always think of that night when I had only two thousand left in my account; it wasn't the beginning of an inspirational story, but a moment that forced me to abandon all illusions and re-examine the rules.
What I'm sharing today is not a secret to overnight wealth, but a survival guide that helps you stay alive through the storm and ultimately find your direction. These principles are very simple, even a bit 'stupid', but they are the armor forged from countless lessons.

Hello everyone, I am the compass.
In the city of Shenzhen, new wealth myths are born every day, and old legends quietly fade away. On this stage, which condenses all human desires in the crypto world, I have seen too many stories that are as brilliant as meteors but fleeting; they once precisely captured every wave but lost all their chips in an unintentional pullback.
The truly cruel truth is: in this market, many know when to attack, but those who know how to build defenses and keep themselves at the table are few and far between.

Hello everyone, I am Compass.
In Shenzhen, a city known for 'making money' and 'speed', my life is like an outlier; there’s no 996, no ineffective socializing, just a studio with a view of the sunset and two houses without mortgage payments. My friends say this is 'lying down to win', but only I know that this enviable composure comes from the past eight years I have spent practicing a set of 'anti-efficiency survival philosophy' in the most volatile market of the cryptocurrency world.
I have never been liquidated and have never believed in the 'All-In Myth'. However, my returns have quietly outperformed most players around me. What I'm sharing today is not a powerful medicine that can double your investment in three days, but rather the foundational mindset that can help you 'live long and continue to make money'.

Friends, I am the compass.
If someone tells you that he can change his destiny in the cryptocurrency world with 3000 yuan, you would probably laugh. This amount isn't even enough to have a decent Japanese meal in a first-tier city. But today I want to seriously say: this 3000 yuan might be the most important ticket for you to transform from an 'audience' to a 'player'.
I have seen too many people who, with the thought of 'I'll do well when I have a capital of 100,000', remain stagnant forever. Meanwhile, some others, with a small amount of money, have learned the survival rules that will benefit them for a lifetime in the market, and when opportunities arise, they make an astonishing leap.

Hello everyone, I am Luopan.
Today I want to tell a true story, not about myths, but about 'rationality on the edge of a cliff.' This August, I received a shocking screenshot of a position from a friend in Shanghai, with long positions in Ethereum and SOL, like two monuments, firmly standing at a periodic peak. The floating loss was steadily above 1 million USD.
He only asked one question at that time: 'Lao Luo, should I cut my losses?'
I can imagine the anxiety he felt, unable to sleep all night, from this side of the screen. But the most fearful thing in investment decisions is to respond to panic with panic. I did not immediately give him the answer of 'cutting losses' or 'holding on,' but instead did two things: first, I set aside the profit and loss numbers and looked only at the structure of the chart itself; second, I assessed whether his logic for buying was completely wrong or just poorly timed.

Dear friends, I am the compass.
Today we won't talk about K-lines or draw trend lines; we will discuss a kind of heartache that people in the crypto world are most familiar with: watching the coins you sold soar into the sky.
I understand this pain too well. In 2023, a Layer2 project I carefully researched, after rising 15%, I 'smartly' chose to take profits. Later, it landed on mainstream platforms and achieved an epic increase of 20 times. During that time, I felt like I had a fishbone stuck in my throat every day; that feeling of 'I could have' regret was ten times more painful than losing money directly.
Why do we always become 'bystanders in a bull market, cannon fodder before the surge'? Today, I want to talk to you about the art of 'holding on'.