Dear friends, I am the compass.
Today we won't talk about K-lines or draw trend lines; we will discuss a kind of heartache that people in the crypto world are most familiar with: watching the coins you sold soar into the sky.
I understand this pain too well. In 2023, a Layer2 project I carefully researched, after rising 15%, I 'smartly' chose to take profits. Later, it landed on mainstream platforms and achieved an epic increase of 20 times. During that time, I felt like I had a fishbone stuck in my throat every day; that feeling of 'I could have' regret was ten times more painful than losing money directly.
Why do we always become 'bystanders in a bull market, cannon fodder before the surge'? Today, I want to talk to you about the art of 'holding on'.
One, the key to breaking the situation: Shift from "price anchoring" to "market cap thinking".
Most people get their hearts racing when prices fluctuate by 10% or 20%, essentially locked by the "price anchor." The true experts focus on another chart: market cap ceiling.
I have developed a simple market cap stratification rule for myself, which gives me a "fixed star" in volatile markets:
Seed stage (circulating market cap < 50 million U): This is where the dream of a hundredfold begins, but also a battlefield littered with bones. Keep your position small; imagine you are using the price of a lottery ticket to buy a chance to change your class. Goal: Find the "breaker" that can break the 100 million market cap shackles.
Growth stage (100 million - 300 million U): The project has initially proven itself, and the narrative is spreading. This is the most efficient stage, often brewing with 10-30 times potential. Goal: Accompany it in completing the leap from "dark horse" to "mainstream alternative."
Expansion stage (500 million - 1 billion U): The project has entered the mainstream view, and the game shifts from pure expectations to some fundamentals and capital games. At this time, 5-15 times potential remains considerable. Goal: In the sector rotation and ecological explosion, seize the most lucrative main rise segment.
Core principle: Your take-profit and stop-loss should not be based on "how much money I made," but rather on "where is its story now, and how much market cap space is left."
Two, counter-intuitive operations: tiered take-profit, dancing with surges.
"Selling everything" and "holding on for dear life" are two extremes. My solution is to create a "victory retreat roadmap."
When the underlying asset starts to move and hits your preset key market cap node (for example, breaking through an important threshold), initiate the following procedure:
First retreat (25%): Recover the initial principal, letting profits be completely free. This is a liberation of mindset.
Second push (50% profit reinvestment): Invest part of the profit into your "observation pool" for the next potential asset, diversifying risks and not betting all your luck in one place.
Long-term holding (remaining position): Set a relatively loose trailing stop-loss for this portion of the position. Allow it to pull back significantly, with the goal of coexisting with that final, most crazy surge.
This method allows you to neither completely miss out nor lock in basic profits, facing any fluctuations calmly.
Three, the starting point of discovery: Listen to the voice on-chain before the hustle.
Those "miracles" that ultimately allow you to hold on often begin when no one is paying attention. True early opportunities rarely arise from trending searches, but are more nurtured in the enthusiasm of on-chain data and the first batch of community builders.
An observation: Historically, most projects follow the path of "on-chain launch -> niche platform trading -> discovered by mainstream platforms." Entering in the second phase often achieves the best balance of odds and certainty. Data shows that in the past cycle, a significant proportion of new assets on mainstream platforms were able to achieve multiple growth again after listing. This means that "listing" itself is far from the end of the story, but often just the starting gun for a new narrative.
In this market, lightning-fast smart individuals often pay for the "fools" with vision. Those who appear to hold awkwardly and endure drastic fluctuations ultimately reap all the chips from the hesitant.
"Selling out" is a necessary lesson in growth; its value lies in teaching us that establishing a system that allows you to remain calm amid great uncertainty is more important than accurately timing the top and bottom.
If you are tired of jumping in and out repeatedly in anxiety and long to establish a more calm and long-term holding mentality, feel free to follow me@币圈罗盘 , an analyst dedicated to finding simple rules to stick to in a complex market.
Let us learn not only to reach out but also to hold steadily.
#加密市场反弹 $ETH
