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Hedera has struggled to regain momentum after a recent dip, leaving price action range-bound. HBAR attempted to stabilize, but recovery has stalled as holder behavior weighs on sentiment. 

This hesitation could still benefit futures traders, as positioning suggests a sharp move may follow if key levels break.

Hedera Traders Have A Lot To Lose

Derivatives data show that short HBAR traders are exposed to meaningful risk if the price rises. The liquidation map indicates the largest cluster of short positions sits near the $0.114 level. A move to that price would trigger approximately $4.5 million in short liquidations, forcing rapid buybacks.

Current positioning remains skewed toward shorts rather than longs. This imbalance reflects negative sentiment across derivatives markets. Crowded short exposure increases the probability of volatility spikes, especially if the price pushes through resistance and forces traders to exit losing positions quickly.

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HBAR Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass

Macro indicators point to weakening investor participation. The Chaikin Money Flow has trended lower for nearly two weeks, forming consecutive lower lows. CMF tracks capital moving in and out of an asset using price and volume, making it a key demand signal.

The indicator slipping below the zero line confirms net outflows are dominating HBAR. This behavior suggests investors are reducing exposure rather than accumulating. Persistent outflows typically pressure the price and delay recovery attempts unless sentiment shifts decisively.

HBAR CMF. Source: TradingView HBAR Price Needs To Secure This Critical Support

HBAR trades near $0.108 at the time of writing, hovering around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This level acts as a critical pivot for trend direction. Securing it as support would improve recovery odds and challenge the prevailing bearish bias.

If outflows continue, HBAR may fail to defend this zone. Under that scenario, price could slip back toward the 2026 low near $0.102. Such a move would extend the downtrend and reinforce bearish momentum across spot and derivatives markets.

HBAR Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

A bullish scenario requires a confirmed reclaim of the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Flipping it into support could lift HBAR toward the 38.2% Fib near $0.112. Clearing the $0.115 resistance would likely trigger short liquidations, invalidate the bearish thesis, and support a broader recovery.

Rain has extended its upward trend, reaching a fresh all-time high over the past two days. The rally has been driven largely by long-term holders, whose sustained accumulation pushed the RAIN price to new records. 

While the breakout reflects strong demand, the underlying price structure suggests the move may be part of a broader advance.

Rain Whales Move To Buy

Whale activity has played a decisive role in Rain’s recent surge. Over the last 48 hours, addresses holding between 1 million and 100 million RAIN accumulated a combined 165 million tokens. At current prices, this buying is valued at roughly $1.66 million, highlighting growing conviction among large holders.

This accumulation trend has provided consistent support during the rally. Large holders often influence short-term price direction by absorbing supply. If this behavior continues, it could sustain upward momentum and reduce the risk of abrupt pullbacks, reinforcing Rain’s bullish structure.

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RAIN Whale Holding. Source: Santiment

Momentum indicators align with the positive sentiment. The Money Flow Index has trended higher and remains above the neutral 50 level. MFI measures buying and selling pressure using both price and volume, offering insight into demand strength.

The indicator’s position in the positive zone signals that RAIN selling pressure has largely faded. Buying interest now dominates market activity. Such conditions often support trend continuation, especially when accompanied by steady accumulation from larger market participants.

RAIN MFI. Source: TradingView RAIN Price Could Be Looking At a Breakout Rally

RAIN trades near $0.0100 at the time of writing after setting a new all-time high at $0.0105 within the last 48 hours. In reaching that level, the altcoin confirmed a bullish price pattern, reinforcing the broader upside narrative forming on the chart.

The developing, broadening ascending wedge points to expanding volatility with a bullish bias. This pattern suggests a potential 15% upside upon confirmation. A successful breakout could lift RAIN beyond its current high, provided investor support and capital inflows remain consistent.

RAIN Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

The bullish outlook weakens if momentum stalls. A lack of fresh inflows or profit-taking by holders could pressure price action. Under that scenario, RAIN may slip below the $0.0100 support. A breakdown could send the token toward $0.0090, invalidating the bullish thesis and delaying further upside.

SENT launched on January 22 and immediately grabbed attention. Since the post-launch candle opening point near $0.010, the SENT price is up roughly 140%, even as the broader market stayed shaky. That strength matters. But short-term charts show something critical beneath the surface.

This price move is being driven by fast trades, not steady conviction. For now, SENT looks like a momentum playground, not a clean trend.

15-Minute Chart Shows Momentum Bursts, Not Follow-Through

On the 15-minute timeframe, SENT formed a clear double-bottom structure after launch. The neckline sits near $0.030, which is why traders are watching that level closely. A break above it would normally suggest continuation.

The problem is volume behavior. After the initial post-TGE surge, Sentient volume steadily faded. The only exception was one large green volume pillar, followed almost immediately by a smaller but still meaningful red pillar. That sequence is key.

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The green candle shows aggressive buyers stepping in, likely chasing a breakout or a quick price surge. The red candle that followed shows fast profit-taking. This is classic short-term behavior, likely by smart money or scalpers. Buyers push price, sellers respond quickly, and the move stalls.

15-Minute Sentient Chart: TradingView

In simple terms, momentum exists, but it is being sold into almost immediately. That is why the price keeps moving sideways instead of expanding higher. This is ideal for scalpers, but risky for traders expecting smooth continuation.

30-Minute And 1-Hour Data Point To Rotation, Not Conviction

When we zoom out slightly, the story becomes clearer.

On the 30-minute chart, the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, the big money tracker, has dropped below the zero line, while the price moves mostly sideways. Below zero means more capital is leaving than entering. Even though the price is holding, larger money or big SENT wallets are not committing yet.

For now, CMF needs to hold above the descending trendline to avoid a breakdown and massive capital outflow.

Big Money Not Convinced Yet: TradingView

At the same time, the 1-hour On-Balance Volume, or OBV, is trying to break above a descending trendline. OBV tracks whether volume confirms price. Right now, OBV is rising (buyers supporting with the flattish price), but it still needs to push above roughly 1.09 billion to confirm buyers are in control (make a higher high). Until that happens, the breakout remains tentative.

Buying Pressure Remains On SENT: TradingView

When CMF weakens while OBV tries to break out, it usually means short-term buying is active, but larger capital is not committing yet. And even possibly selling the airdrop stash into strength, which explains the drop below the zero line.

The Smart Money Index adds another layer. While price drifted lower, the smart money line kept moving up. That usually signals quick entries and exits. That also explains the surging volume pillars on the 15-minute chart.

Smart Money Movements: TradingView

These momentum-driven theory lines up with exchange data as well. Exchange volume jumped about 384% in the past 24 hours. That level of activity points to heavy rotation as rising OBV confirms buying, and exchange inflows confirm selling intent and possible airdrop-led profit booking.

Selling Pressure Remains: Nansen

Together, these signals suggest that SENT is being actively traded, but conviction buying has not taken over yet.

2-Hour SENT Price Trend Defines The Levels That Matter Next

The higher timeframe keeps the analysis grounded.

On the 2-hour chart, SENT is still in an uptrend from the post-launch low. That trend has not broken yet, which is important. As long as it holds, upside attempts remain valid.

The first key support sits near $0.025. This level has held multiple tests. If price loses $0.025 with volume, the next downside target comes in near $0.021. If selling pressure accelerates and CMF continues to fall, a deeper move toward $0.010 cannot be ruled out.

SENT Price Analysis: TradingView

On the upside, everything hinges on $0.030. SENT needs both a 15-minute and a 2-hour close above that level. Just wicking above it is not enough. The move must come with expanding volume.

If that confirmation appears, the measured move from the 15-minute structure points toward $0.036 (also present on the 2-hour chart), roughly a 20% upside from the breakout zone. Beyond that, higher resistance levels sit near $0.043 and $0.048.

Until then, the market remains range-bound and fast.

Bottom line: SENT’s post-TGE strength remains, but for now, price is controlled by speed, not conviction. The next direction will not be decided by hype or patterns alone. Volume will decide whether SENT breaks higher or stays a scalper’s game.

According to accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), regulatory clarity is no longer the central barrier in the crypto ecosystem’s evolution.

In its latest report, the firm observed that global crypto regulation is moving toward greater alignment and identified 6 major trends for 2026.

PwC Identifies Key Global Regulatory Trends for the Crypto Industry in 2026

The first key trend concerns stablecoins. PwC highlighted that the industry is shifting focus from drafting frameworks to enforcing them. Regulators are imposing binding rules around reserves, redemption rights, governance, and disclosures.

In some regions, authorities are also introducing holding limits to reduce risks associated with rapid outflows. 

“Central banks will begin testing interoperability between systemic stablecoins and payment systems,” the report read.

Second, the report highlighted growing momentum around tokenized money. Tokenized bank deposits, tokenized cash equivalents, and wholesale central bank digital currencies are moving beyond pilot programs toward broader deployment. 

PwC observed that policymakers are prioritizing cross-border settlement systems that combine tokenized assets with interoperable national payment networks.

More broadly, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization has emerged as a key theme in 2026, with industry participants projecting significant growth. This trend was also evident at the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, where tokenization of RWAs stood out as the most consistent and prominent theme across crypto-related discussions.

Third, PwC identified consumer protection as another major regulatory focus. The report stated that licensed firms will face stricter expectations around marketing practices, product suitability, and customer outcomes. 

“Financial-promotion and product-governance obligations are being integrated into crypto licensing. Licensed firms will be required to demonstrate fair-value outcomes, transparent marketing, appropriateness testing and customer redress mechanisms,” PwC stated.

Fourth, at the institutional level, use cases are also expanding as regulators clarify how digital assets can be approved as eligible collateral under frameworks such as UMR.

As long as these assets meet requirements around liquidity, valuation, custody, operational resilience, and legal enforceability, approval is becoming more achievable. This supports wider institutional use of tokenized and select crypto assets in collateral and derivatives markets.

Fifth, the report also signals tougher expectations for crypto intermediaries. According to PwC,

“Crypto exchanges, custodians and stablecoin issuers are being brought within comprehensive prudential and operational resilience regimes. Supervisors are applying requirements on capital, segregation, liquidity and recovery planning equivalent to financial market infrastructure standard.”

Finally, PwC added that decentralized finance is increasingly being assessed through the same lens as traditional markets. Regulators are extending expectations around market integrity, transparency, surveillance, and conflict management to both centralized and on-chain trading environments, signaling a convergence toward global conduct norms.

The Forces Influencing Crypto Beyond Regulation

Beyond regulatory trends, the report also draws attention to the non-regulatory forces shaping the current state of crypto:

Ondo (ONDO) is creating a striking paradox. The token price has fallen more than 80% from its all-time high (ATH), yet total value locked (TVL) has reached a new record.

This divergence raises questions about the project’s true potential. At the same time, industry leaders are projecting a positive outlook for the tokenization sector in 2026.

Ondo Prices Drop Sharply After Unlocking

Ondo is a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol focused on the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs). The protocol allows users to access traditional financial products. These include US Treasury bonds, credit funds, and tokenized equities on the blockchain.

BeInCrypto Price data shows that ONDO fell from a peak above $2.1 to around $0.35. This represents a decline of more than 80%. In early 2026, ONDO continued to set lower lows and showed no clear signs of recovery.

Ondo (ONDO) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Price

The negative price action may stem from token unlock pressure. Ondo recently completed an unlock of 1.94 billion tokens on January 18. This amount accounted for 57.23% of the issued supply.

The sudden increase in circulating supply added selling pressure and heightened investor concerns. Since the unlock, ONDO has dropped another 10%.

Ondo’s January Paradox: Is The Project Undervalued?

However, Token Terminal data shows strong momentum in the tokenized equity sector. The total market value of tokenized stocks has reached a new ATH of $441.2 million. Ondo Finance leads the sector with a 54.4% market share.

The Total Market Value of Tokenized Stocks. Source: Token Terminal

Charts indicate that tokenized equity market capitalization has surged since September last year. This expansion occurred even as the broader crypto market entered a downturn over the same period.

The data suggests that while many retail investors have withdrawn capital, enterprises continue to allocate funds to tokenized equities.

In addition, Ondo’s TVL increased sharply in January. It reached an ATH above $2.5 billion, according to DefiLlama data.

Ondo’s Total Value Locked. Source: DefiLlama

TVL represents the total value of assets that users lock in a protocol. It reflects user participation and confidence. The contrast between falling market prices and rising capital inflows has led analysts to suspect that Ondo is undervalued. Sentiment and emotion often drive market prices, causing retail investors to overlook fundamentals.

“The current fear in the markets is a blessing in disguise, especially for projects like Ondo,” investor Kyren said.

This paradox becomes more pronounced as tokenization emerged as a central theme at Davos 2026. Global leaders expressed optimism about asset tokenization. They described it as a bridge between traditional finance and DeFi.

Exchange trading data also shows that despite declining prices, many whale investors are treating the pullback as an opportunity.

Ondo Spot Average Order Size. Source: CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant’s spot average order size data highlights the dominance of large whale orders in recent months, shown in green on the chart.

This pattern suggests that ONDO may face a strong recovery once selling pressure from unlock concerns fades and market fear subsides.

Monero has entered a volatile phase after retreating from a newly set all-time high. XMR price pulled back sharply, triggering mixed reactions across the market. 

While the asset has stabilized above the $500 level, downside risks remain elevated. Technical and derivatives data suggest caution despite short-term price resilience.

Monero Traders Are Pulling Back

Derivatives data show waning trader conviction. Monero’s open interest dropped nearly 20% over the past 72 hours, falling from $272 million to $217 million. This reduction indicates traders are closing positions rather than adding exposure, reflecting rising uncertainty about near-term price direction.

Interestingly, the funding rate has remained positive despite the exit of leveraged traders. A positive funding rate suggests long positions still dominate shorts. This imbalance implies traders expect a rebound, yet the reduction in open interest shows they are unwilling to maintain risk during heightened volatility.

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XMR OI. Source: Coinglass Long XMR Traders Under Threat

The liquidation map highlights significant downside risk below current levels. Long positions hold greater exposure than shorts, increasing vulnerability if the price weakens. Even a modest decline below the $500 support could trigger forced liquidations, amplifying selling pressure.

Data shows that a 3% drop below $489 could liquidate approximately $3.62 million in long positions. Such a move would likely accelerate losses as cascading liquidations unfold. This setup suggests XMR remains susceptible to sharp downside moves despite its current stabilization.

XMR Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass

On-chain flow indicators reinforce this cautious outlook. The Chaikin Money Flow has recorded a sharp downtick over the past several days. CMF measures capital inflows and outflows using price and volume, offering insight into investor behavior.

The indicator slipping below the zero line signals that outflows are now dominating Monero. This shift shows investors are reducing exposure rather than accumulating. Sustained negative CMF often precedes continued price weakness, especially when combined with fragile derivatives positioning.

Monero CMF. Source: TradingView XMR Price Could Lose Its Support

Monero trades near $524 at the time of writing, holding above the psychologically important $500 support. This level has acted as a key defense zone, attracting buyers during recent pullbacks. Maintaining it remains critical for preventing deeper losses.

The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement sits near $503, often referred to as a bear market support floor. Staying above this zone has so far limited downside. However, rising liquidation risk and weakening inflows suggest a break remains possible. A decisive drop below $500 could push XMR toward $450.

Monero Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

A bullish reversal cannot be ruled out. If positive funding and trader optimism overpower selling pressure, XMR could regain momentum. Under that scenario, Monero price may advance toward the $560 resistance. A sustained breakout could extend gains toward $606, invalidating the bearish thesis.

The US Department of Justice (DOJ) is signaling a major shift in its approach to crypto enforcement.

Authorities frame digital assets not as standalone “crypto scams” but as a central tool in modern, industrial-scale fraud operations.

DOJ Recasts Crypto as Fraud Infrastructure as AI Turns Scams into Industrial Operations

In its 2025 Year in Review, the DOJ highlighted three high-profile cases that illustrate how crypto has become embedded in traditional crimes, citing:

Medicare fraud

Multi-million-dollar investment schemes, and

Asset laundering.

According to the DOJ, prosecutors charged 265 defendants in 2025 with an aggregate intended loss exceeding $16 billion. This is more than double the previous year.

The Fraud Section operates through specialized units, including the Health Care Fraud Unit, which oversees seizures of crypto alongside cash, luxury vehicles, and other assets.

Medicare Fraud: Elderly Targeted in $1 Billion Graft Fraud, Crypto Seized

One of the most striking cases involved Tyler Kontos, Joel “Max” Kupetz, and Jorge Kinds, charged with a $1 billion amniotic wound allograft fraud.

The scheme targeted elderly and terminally ill patients with medically unnecessary grafts, generating over $600 million in improper Medicare payments.

Authorities later seized more than $7.2 million in assets, including crypto.

Wolf Capital CEO Sentenced in $9.4 Million Crypto Investment Scam

In another case, Travis Ford, former CEO of Wolf Capital, was sentenced to five years in prison for a $9.4 million crypto investment fraud promising 547% annual returns to roughly 2,800 investors.

These cases illustrate a broader DOJ strategy: crypto is increasingly treated like traditional forms of illicit value like cash, cars, or luxury goods, rather than as a novel, speculative asset.

Enforcement is no longer focused on price manipulation or retail hype but on asset recovery and dismantling criminal infrastructure.

It aligns with a recent DOJ move to charge a Venezuelan national over alleged $1 billion crypto laundering spanning the US and high-risk jurisdictions.

AI Turns Crypto Schemes into High-Speed Crime Networks

This industrialization of fraud has aligned with broader US policy priorities. The DOJ’s “America First” enforcement posture dovetails with the recently introduced bipartisan SAFE Crypto Act, which would establish a federal task force within 180 days to coordinate efforts to combat crypto scams.

“To establish a task force for recognizing and averting cryptocurrency scams, and for other purposes,” read a text in the bill.

Meanwhile, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has urged states to criminalize unlicensed crypto operations. He warned that a $51 billion criminal economy is thriving in regulatory blind spots.

The DOJ and other regulators are likely to focus on AI-driven schemes ranging from synthetic tokenized investments to scams built around AI trading narratives.

Crypto’s regulatory trajectory is increasingly shaped by its role as systemic financial plumbing rather than by market volatility. This brings digital assets closer to the compliance, oversight, and enforcement expectations long associated with TradFi.

As the DOJ recasts crypto as core infrastructure for modern fraud, regulatory and enforcement attention will increasingly target the speed, scale, and operational sophistication of crypto-enabled crime.

After briefly surging above $3,000 yesterday, Ethereum (ETH) has slipped back below the mark amid broader market volatility.

Analysts are now assessing where Ethereum could find a bottom. Drawing on technical analysis, on-chain data, and market cycle theory, several scenarios are emerging that suggest how ETH’s next major move could unfold.

Analysts Outline Bottom Scenarios For Ethereum

Ethereum’s recent price action reflects the uncertainty gripping the broader cryptocurrency market, with escalating and easing geopolitical tensions driving notable volatility.

According to BeInCrypto Markets data, the second-largest cryptocurrency has declined 1.67% over the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, Ethereum was trading at $2,970.87.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

Analyst Ted Pillows suggested that a successful move above the $3,000 to $3,050 range could open the path toward the $3,200 zone. However, failure to reclaim this area could expose Ethereum to new yearly lows.

Amid this backdrop, other analysts are also outlining their bottom hypotheses for Ethereum. A CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 observed that the realized price of Ethereum accumulation addresses, a metric that reflects the average cost at which long-term holders acquired their ETH, continues to rise and is now approaching the spot market price.

This trend suggests that large investors, often referred to as whales, are still adding to their positions rather than exiting.

“Furthermore, the realized price is a strong support level for accumulation whales,” the analysis read.

The analyst added that Ethereum has not traded below this cost basis, suggesting that whales tend to defend this price zone by increasing buying activity. Based on this data, CW estimates that even if Ethereum experiences further downside, a potential bottom could form around $2,720.

“In other words, even if further declines occur, the bottom is likely to be around 2.72k. This represents a difference of approximately 7% from the current price,” CW wrote.

From a technical standpoint, trader Kamran Asghar claimed that ETH has formed its third “huge weekly rounded bottom.” The previous two formations were followed by price rallies, potentially signaling further upside.

On higher timeframes, other analysts are pointing to similar reversal structures. According to the analyst Bit Bull, ETH appears to be forming a double bottom structure, alongside an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the monthly chart. Both of these are commonly viewed as bullish reversal signals in technical analysis.

“I think ETH will surprise everyone in 2026,” Bit Bull remarked.

Lastly, analyst Matthew Hyland pointed to historical cycle patterns. He suggested Ethereum may be transitioning into a new phase of its market structure.

This approach argues that Ethereum follows a 3.5-year pattern, unlike Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. The analyst stated the cyclical bottom formed in the fourth quarter of 2025.

“3.5 year cycle decline right into months 40-42 after making new all time highs just like the prior two cycles. The next cycle for ETH has begun,” he said.

Overall, analyst views remain mixed, but several indicators suggest Ethereum may be approaching an important inflection point. While short-term volatility persists, on-chain data, technical structures, and historical cycle patterns point to areas where downside could attract renewed demand, potentially setting the stage for Ethereum’s next directional move.

Ledger, a French crypto hardware wallet provider, is reportedly planning an initial public offering (IPO) in the United States.

The move would place Ledger among a growing group of digital asset companies pursuing public listings in the US amid a favorable regulatory environment.

Crypto Wallet Maker Ledger Considers US IPO

According to the Financial Times, Ledger has engaged investment banks Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Barclays to explore a potential listing that could value the company at more than $4 billion.

This would represent a significant increase from Ledger’s $1.5 billion valuation in 2023, following a funding round backed by investors including True Global Ventures and 10T Holdings. The FT, citing sources familiar with the matter, said the IPO could take place as early as this year.

Still, the plans remain subject to change. BeInCrypto also reached out to Ledger, but they declined to comment on the matter.

Ledger has previously signaled its interest in tapping US capital markets. In November 2025, CEO Pascal Gauthier suggested the company was considering future fundraising options. This included a public listing in New York or a private funding round.

“Money is in New York today for crypto, it’s nowhere else in the world, it’s certainly not in Europe,” he stated.

The potential listing comes as the company sees strong revenue growth. Gauthier revealed that Ledger’s revenues reached triple-digit millions as of November 2025.

This shift was likely driven by a major rise in crypto hacks. As crypto-related crime continues to increase, more investors have turned to hardware wallets to protect their assets.

According to estimates from Chainalysis, crypto scams and fraudulent activity may have resulted in more than $17 billion in losses in 2025.

Nonetheless, the announcement has drawn criticism from crypto investigator ZachXBT. He raised concerns over Ledger’s past security incidents and product issues.

“Ledger, a French security company has been breached multiple times which resulted in its customers private data being leaked has lead to targeted thefts and millions stolen. Current products have major issue like the battery for the Ledger Nano X. Now Ledger plans to max extract more via US IPO after recently announcing they will also charge a % for clear signing,” he wrote.

Earlier this month, BeInCrypto reported that Ledger experienced a data breach in which customer information was exposed through a third-party processor, Global-e. The company had previously suffered a separate security incident in 2020 that also resulted in the exposure of customer data.

Meanwhile, Ledger’s plans come shortly after BitGo’s debut as the first major crypto IPO of 2026. The crypto custody firm listed on the New York Stock Exchange on January 22, pricing its shares at $18.

The stock opened 24.6% higher at $22.43, valuing BitGo at approximately $2.2 billion. This follows a wave of crypto listings in 2025, when Circle, Figure Technology, Gemini, and Bullish went public. Grayscale and Kraken have also filed for IPOs.

XRP price attempted a rebound a few sessions back, but the move failed to hold. After bouncing from January 20 to January 21, XRP stalled near $1.98 and rolled over again. It now trades close to $1.90, slipping back toward a zone where downside risk is starting to dominate.

The chart shows a clear bearish structure forming. Under the surface, capital flows, holder behavior, and exchange activity all point in the same direction. While long-term holders (HODLers) are still buying, profit-taking from other groups is keeping XRP under pressure. The question now is whether conviction alone is enough to prevent a deeper breakdown.

XRP Chart Signals Breakdown Risk as Capital Flows Turn Negative

On the 12-hour chart, XRP is close to forming a head-and-shoulders pattern. The neckline of this structure sits near $1.80.

If XRP loses that neckline, the projected move points to an 18% decline.

Capital flows support this risk. Between January 19 and January 22, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) continued trending lower, along with the price. CMF tracks whether large players are moving money into or out of an asset using price and volume. When CMF falls alongside price, it signals capital outflows rather than organic consolidation.

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XRP Structure: TradingView

That weakness lines up with ETF data. On January 20, XRP ETFs recorded a sharp net outflow of about $53.3 million. This single day outweighed surrounding inflows, keeping the ETF balance net negative for the period. While the last two days showed modest positive numbers, they have not been strong enough to push CMF back above its falling trendline.

Weak ETF Performance: SoSo Value

As long as CMF remains below that line, the breakdown risk stays active. But other risks remain active as well.

Short-Term Holders Exit Aggressively, Capping Rebound

The failure near $1.98 was not random. Holder data explains why upside attempts have struggled.

HODL Waves, a metric segregating wallets based on time, show that one of the most speculative cohorts, wallets holding XRP for one week to one month, has been selling steadily since January 8. Over that period, their supply share dropped from roughly 4.77% to about 2.24%. That is a reduction of more than 50% in just two weeks.

Short-Term Holders Keep Selling: Glassnode

This group typically buys dips and sells rebounds. Their aggressive selling during every bounce helps explain why XRP could not hold above $1.98, even during short-lived recovery attempts.

This selling pressure is also visible in exchange flow data. XRP exchange balances flipped from persistent net outflows (7.68 million XRP) earlier in the month to net inflows (201,000 XRP) by January 23. That shift signals more tokens moving onto exchanges, consistent with profit-taking rather than accumulation.

Exchange Inflows Start: Santiment

In short, speculative sellers have been front-running every rebound. But why are we just blaming the short-term cohort?

Long-Term Holders Still Accumulate — The Only Line of Defense

Not all holders are selling.

Long-term XRP holders have continued to accumulate steadily since around January 10. Their net position change shows no sharp drawdowns, even as the XRP price weakens. This cohort has acted as a stabilizing force, helping XRP avoid an immediate collapse despite heavy selling elsewhere.

This proves that long-term holders are not contributing to exchange inflows, suggesting conviction rather than short-term trading.

HODLers Keep Buying: Glassnode

However, this support has limits. Long-term accumulation can slow a decline, but it does not guarantee a reversal if capital outflows and profit-taking continue. Without stronger inflows from ETFs or a shift in speculative behavior, conviction alone may only delay the breakdown.

XRP Price Levels Flag The Risk

The XRP price structure now comes down to clear levels.

On the downside, $1.80 is critical. A confirmed break below this level would validate the head-and-shoulders pattern and open the door toward $1.46, completing the projected 18% move.

On the upside, XRP must reclaim $2.02 on a sustained close to invalidate the right shoulder. That would signal that profit-taking is losing control. A stronger bullish shift would follow above $2.19, while the broader bearish structure only fully dissolves above $2.41.

XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

For now, the XRP price sits in between. Long-term holders are buying, but speculative sellers and capital outflows are still dictating price action. Unless flows improve and selling pressure fades, hodler conviction may slow the fall, but it may not be enough to stop it.

The Sandbox (SAND) is a blockchain-based metaverse platform where users can create, own, and monetize digital assets. SAND recorded a 60% price increase in January, even as the broader market corrected and fear sentiment returned.

The following article examines the factors that signal both opportunities and risks for SAND traders in January.

What Is Driving SAND’s Price in January?

The Sandbox (SAND) has climbed above $0.17, rising more than 60% since the start of the year. Its upward momentum closely resembles the recent rally seen in Axie Infinity (AXS).

Data shows that traders on Upbit are among the main forces behind this surge.

The Sandbox Markets. Source: Coingeko

SAND trading volume on Upbit accounts for more than 23% of total volume. Prices on Upbit also trade at a premium compared with other exchanges. AXS experienced a similar Upbit-driven effect, which pushed its price up more than threefold in January.

Korean investors appear to be showing renewed interest in the gaming theme. Artemis data indicates that the gaming sector has led overall market performance since the beginning of the year.

Crypto Sector Performance. Source: Artemis.

With capital continuing to flow into this sector and dynamics similar to those of AXS, SAND could extend its rally further. Compared with AXS’s gain of more than 200%, SAND’s performance still looks relatively modest.

Analysts expect SAND to break above the $0.20 resistance zone. Some projections suggest a move toward $1 if GameFi interest continues to build.

What Risks Should Traders Watch?

Although price action has not yet shown clear signs of exhaustion, several concerning signals have emerged.

CryptoQuant data shows that SAND reserves on spot centralized exchanges have reached a one-year high. Around 1 billion SAND is currently held on exchanges, representing more than 33% of the total supply.

The Sandbox (SAND) Exchange Reserve. Source: CryptoQuant.

Rising exchange reserves often imply a higher risk of price dumps, as tokens become easier to sell on the open market. This dynamic threatens the current uptrend. It suggests that the SAND breakout could turn into a trap if new capital inflows are insufficient to absorb selling pressure.

In addition, Altcoin Vector, Swissblock’s institutional altcoin report, notes that the metaverse and gaming narrative—once considered dead—is making a comeback. However, the rebound appears to rely more on speculation than on sustainable growth.

Altcoin Vector’s Altcoin Quadrant shows that most altcoins remain in the “Accumulation” phase. By contrast, metaverse assets such as AXS and SAND have jumped directly into the “Scalp” zone, a rare exception.

“Ride the META narrative, but proceed with caution. For a sustained long-term rally, growth must stem from infrastructure and adoption, not just narrative. Without a solid base in core assets, this remains a speculative play,” Altcoin Vector concluded.

Altcoin Quadrant. Source: Altcoin Vector.

The report also explains that small-cap tokens often lead market performance when fast-moving capital seeks short-term profits. A lasting rally requires real infrastructure growth, genuine adoption, and a broader recovery led by Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Pi Network’s Pi Coin (PI) posted modest gains as the team unveiled new App Studio updates alongside a survey that offers Pi credits as rewards.

These changes aim to expand access, encourage creativity, and increase Pi’s utility in applications, even for users without technical backgrounds.

What Are The New Pi App Studio Updates?

In a recent blog post, the Pi Core Team announced two major updates. The first update introduces Pi payment integration through the App Studio.

It allows Pioneers to add in-app Pi payments without technical expertise. The payments are limited to Test-Pi for now and apply within a single active session. It enables features such as unlocking extra in-app features or purchasing items.

“With the current version of the feature, creators can add Test-Pi payment interactions that apply during a single active session (while the app is in use)… A single “session” refers to one self-contained instance of activity in an app, such as a round, task, or experience,” the blog read.

In parallel, the team rolled out an option that lets Pioneers deploy app iterations by watching ads instead of paying Pi. The update is intended to broaden access for non-migrated users and those with limited Pi balances.

“The feature will be available if Pioneers have a balance in the App Studio that goes below 0.25 Pi. Note that these ads do not cover the actual cost of deploying an app on Pi App studio, but rather expands accessibility for creators and lowers costs for app iterations while preventing spamming and exploitation,” the team added.

Alongside these updates, Pi App Studio launched a community survey. The initiative invites Pioneers to share feedback and highlight useful applications built on the platform.

The team revealed that the first 1,000 qualified responses will receive 5 Pi credits, which respondents can use exclusively in the Pi App Studio for app creation and customization.

The credits are intended to reduce the friction associated with AI-generated iterations and deployments, which typically require Pi.

Pi Coin Price Sees Modest Recovery

The updates come amid a modest rally in Pi Coin. It’s worth noting that the price increase coincides with a broader market recovery.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by $4.58 billion, reflecting a cautious improvement in overall investor sentiment.

According to BeInCrypto Markets data, Pi Coin’s price rose 0.7% over the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, it was trading at $0.18.

Pi Coin Price. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

Despite this short-term recovery, Pi’s broader trend remains negative. The token has declined nearly 10% over the past month, with its current price down more than 78% since its exchange debut in February.

Low trading volumes, weak retail interest, and ongoing token unlocks continue to weigh on market sentiment and price performance.

The App Studio initiatives aim to convert passive users into active participants by removing technical hurdles and offering incentives. While these steps may boost application development and utility, it remains uncertain if they can revive engagement amidst a deep market collapse.

Farcaster, a once-promising social protocol, has changed hands, with venture-backed startup Neynar now steering the ship.

Meanwhile, founders Dan Romero and Varun Srinivasan slip away like ghosts in the blockchain.

The Future of Farcaster: Infrastructure, Community, or Rebirth?

Announced on January 21, 2026, the deal’s valuation reportedly hovers near $1 billion, shrouded in secrecy. Meanwhile, daily active users (DAU) have plunged by 40%, and revenue has cratered by 85%.

Farcaster DAU. Source: Dune Analytics

However, amid the whispers of failure, a more pressing question lingers: Is this the death of Web3 social ambitions, or a stealthy rebirth?

Farcaster’s saga began in 2021, when Romero, fresh off Coinbase’s IPO windfall, envisioned a social network free from platform risk.

Users would own their identities, apps would rise and fall on Ethereum (later shifting to Optimism), and the community would guide growth.

Farcaster Revenue. Source: Dune Analytics

Partnering with Varun Srinivasan, Romero raised $30 million in a 2022 seed round led by a16z, launching Warpcast as the flagship client for a crypto-native crowd.

Growth was steady through 2023, boasting fewer bots than X (Twitter). By 2024, a $150 million Series A led by Paradigm catapulted Farcaster to a $1 billion valuation, fueling sky-high expectations.

Innovations like Frames (mini-apps that enable on-chain actions inside posts) sparked buzz and drew developers eager to experiment.

Then came 2025. Spam surged, Frames were abused, power badges ignited controversy, and channel confiscations alienated users.

Even the October acquisition of Clanker, a social trading protocol generating over $50 million in fees, couldn’t reverse the decline.

Costs soared, engagement stalled, and reality collided with hype. As tech commentator Bayomi noted, Farcaster raised $180 million but generated just $2.8 million in revenue over five years before the sale.

Farcaster Isn’t Shutting Down: Founders Emphasize Protocol Survival and Investor Stewardship

Addressing rumors of a shutdown, Romero stated that Farcaster was not shutting down.

“The protocol works and will continue… with 250,000 MAU in December and over 100,000 funded wallets,” he indicated.

Neynar aims to pivot toward developers, while Merkle Manufactory returns the full $180 million to investors in a rare act of fiscal responsibility.

Romero, who purchased his house with Coinbase proceeds, emphasized stewardship over the course of five grueling years.

Praise, Criticism, and the Web3 Stakes: Crypto Divided Over Farcaster’s Future

Investors rallied behind the founders. Chris Dixon expressed gratitude for the “five-year partnership” and excitement for Neynar’s stewardship.

Kyle Samani proudly affirmed he would back Romero again “in a heartbeat.” Balaji Srinivasan hailed the team for building one of the best decentralized social protocols, prioritizing Internet freedom over easy gains.

Yet criticism persists. Liron Shapira dismissed Farcaster as the “last gasp” of Dixon’s “Read/Write/Own” thesis, calling it “logically incoherent gaslighting.”

Hishboy declared the era over, insisting crypto is for “Internet Capital Markets. Period.” Tervelix criticized early missteps, like forcibly seizing the Bankless channel, and resented what they saw as a “bailout.”

Even builders voiced frustration: one developer relayed friends’ disillusionment with constant ecosystem churn, pleading for fair amplification, transparent processes, and technical improvements.

Defenders fired back. User Chaskin argued it’s no scam as most startups fail, and lauded Romero’s relentless public grind.

Meanwhile, Foobar praised the “respectable wind-down,” highlighting the absence of token grifts or vaporware.

Robin condemned the “character assassination,” emphasizing Farcaster’s decentralization, user-friendly UX, and inspirational impact on crypto entrepreneurs.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin framed the story in a broader context. In his 2026 pledge to decentralized social, he praised Farcaster alongside Lens, urging platforms to serve long-term user interests instead of speculative bubbles.

“We need mass communication tools that surface the best information and arguments… not corposlop,” he wrote, advocating competition through shared data layers.

So, what’s truly at stake? Farcaster’s fate tests Web3’s soul. Can it transcend infrastructure to rival mainstream networks? Or will Neynar’s developer-focused pivot unlock new potential quietly, away from the limelight?

As the founders vanish, the protocol endures, but crypto’s decentralized utopia teeters between mirage and revolution.

The Bitcoin price is stuck in place. BTC is trading flat over the past 24 hours and down about 6% over the past week. On the surface, nothing dramatic is happening. Underneath, however, four separate risk signals are starting to align. A bearish chart pattern is forming. Long-term holders are selling faster. ETF demand has just logged its weakest week since November. And the buyers replacing sellers are increasingly short-term and speculative.

None of these signals alone would break the market. Together, they suggest Bitcoin is losing conviction at a sensitive level.

A Bearish Chart Pattern Forms as Momentum Weakens

On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern reflects a loss of upward momentum, where each rally attempt tops out lower than the last. The neckline sits near $86,430.

If price breaks that neckline, the measured move implies a downside of roughly 9–10%.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Bearish BTC Pattern: TradingView

Momentum supports that risk. The 20-period exponential moving average is rolling over and closing in on the 50-period EMA. An EMA gives more weight to recent prices and helps track trend direction. A bearish crossover would make it easier for sellers to push the price lower.

This weakening structure becomes more concerning once holder behavior is added.

Long-Term Holders Accelerate Selling as Conviction Softens

Long-term holders, wallets holding Bitcoin for more than a year, are increasing selling pressure.

On January 21, long-term holders sold roughly 75,950 BTC (outflows). By January 22, that figure jumped to about 122,486 BTC. That is an increase of roughly 61% in one day, a sharp acceleration rather than a steady distribution.

Long Term Sellers: Glassnode

This selling is not happening from fear but from a lack of higher price conviction. Long-term holder NUPL, which measures unrealized profit or loss, has dropped to a six-month low but remains in the belief zone. Holders are still sitting on profits.

Unrealized Profits Exist: Glassnode

That means selling is voluntary. They are choosing to reduce exposure, not being forced out. As these high-conviction holders sell, the type of buyers stepping in matters. The long-term supply release is also highlighted by experts on X:

Bitcoin ETF Demand Weakens as Speculative Buyers Move In

Bitcoin spot ETFs just recorded their weakest week of 2026 and the weakest weekly demand since November.

For the week ending January 21, ETFs saw net selling of about $1.19 billion. That removed a key source of steady demand that had previously absorbed holder selling during pullbacks. Therefore, like holders, even ETF players aren’t banking on the BTC price conviction for now.

Weak BTC ETF Flow: SoSo Value

At the same time, HODL Waves (a time-based holding metric) data shows speculative participation rising. The one-week to one-month holder cohort increased its supply share from roughly 4.6% on January 11 to about 5.6% now. That is a gain of nearly 22% in cohort share over a short period.

Speculative Flow Increases: Glassnode

This matters because these holders typically buy dips and sell rebounds. They do not provide durable support.

So Bitcoin is seeing a handoff from long-term holders and ETFs to short-term traders. That transition often caps upside and increases downside sensitivity.

Key Bitcoin Price Levels That Decide Whether Risk Escalates

All four risks (technical, long-term selling, ETF weaknesses, and speculative inflow) now funnel into a narrow price range.

On the upside, Bitcoin needs a strong 12-hour close above $90,340 to ease immediate pressure (above the right shoulder). A reclaim of $92,300 would be more meaningful, as it would push the price back above key moving averages.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

Until then, the bearish setup remains active.

On the downside, a loss of $86,430 would confirm the head-and-shoulders breakdown. With long-term holders selling faster, ETF demand at a multi-month low, and speculative buyers dominating, downside moves could accelerate quickly once support fails.

The US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) are set to present a united front on crypto regulation next week.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Mike Selig will headline a rare joint public event to harmonize oversight and advance President Donald Trump’s ambition to make the US the crypto capital of the world.

SEC and CFTC Join Forces to Advance US Crypto Leadership

The event, titled “Harmonization, US Financial Leadership in the Crypto Era,” will take place on Tuesday, January 27, from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. ET at CFTC headquarters in Washington, D.C.

It will be open to the public and livestreamed. This signals a deliberate shift toward transparency and coordination after years of regulatory fragmentation. Atkins, chair of the SEC, framed the meeting as a direct response to Trump’s policy agenda.

“I’m looking forward to joining Mike Selig (CFTC chair) next week at our SEC and CFTC joint event to discuss harmonization between our two agencies,” he said. “Together we will discuss our efforts to deliver on President Trump’s promise to make the US the crypto capital of the world.”

Selig echoed that message, emphasizing alignment rather than rivalry between the two regulators.

“The CFTC and SEC are working together to carry out President Trump’s vision and make the U.S. the Crypto Capital of the World,” he said, adding that the pair would “share our blueprint for U.S. financial leadership in the crypto era.”

The joint appearance marks a notable departure from years of tension between the SEC and CFTC over jurisdiction in digital assets.

Historically, the SEC has overseen securities markets under decades-old securities laws. Meanwhile, the CFTC regulates commodities and derivatives. Crypto assets frequently straddle both definitions, leading to:

Overlapping enforcement actions

Regulatory uncertainty, and

Persistent criticism from the industry over “regulation by enforcement.”

SEC–CFTC Harmonization Signals Clearer US Crypto Rules

The January event builds on a series of coordination efforts launched in 2025, including a joint SEC–CFTC roundtable on harmonization.

To the market, this was seen as the symbolic end of the agencies’ long-running “turf wars.” Since then, both regulators have increasingly emphasized collaboration over competition, particularly as Congress advances legislation such as the CLARITY Act to clarify their respective roles.

According to the SEC, the upcoming session will focus on “harmonization and US financial leadership in the crypto era,” with brief opening remarks from each chair followed by a moderated discussion. Crypto America podcaster Eleanor Terrett will moderate the panel.

Substantively, the discussion is expected to touch on clearer rules for spot crypto markets, DeFi, tokenized assets, perpetual contracts, and the realities of 24/7 digital asset trading. Notably, these are all areas where regulatory ambiguity has historically pushed innovation offshore.

Greater clarity and coordination between the SEC and CFTC could:

Reduce compliance costs

Encourage institutional participation, and

Make it easier for firms to launch new products within the US borders rather than abroad.

Indeed, it may signal bullish regulatory progress under a more explicitly pro-crypto administration.

While no formal policy announcements are expected during the one-hour session, the optics alone mark a turning point.

Changpeng Zhao, founder of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, predicted that cryptocurrency will become the default currency for artificial intelligence agents during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Speaking alongside executives from ING Group, BNY Mellon, and Primavera Capital Group, CZ outlined his vision for how blockchain technology and AI will converge to transform the global financial landscape.

AI Agents Will Transact in Crypto

CZ identified artificial intelligence as one of three emerging sectors poised to fundamentally reshape finance.

“The native currency of AI agents will be cryptocurrency,” CZ said. “Blockchain will become the most natural technical interface for AI agents.”

He acknowledged that current AI technology remains limited in practical applications. “Today’s AI still falls far short of intelligent agency—it can’t book your flight or pay for your lunch,” he noted. “But once it reaches that level, all payments will flow through cryptocurrency.”

The prediction reflects growing industry interest in the intersection of AI and blockchain, as autonomous systems increasingly require seamless, programmable payment infrastructure.

Tokenization and Payments Round Out Top Three

Beyond AI, CZ pointed to tokenization and payments as major growth areas. On tokenization, he revealed active engagement with multiple governments.

“I’m currently in discussions with over a dozen governments on asset tokenization strategies, where governments can generate early financial returns and catalyze upgrades across mining, trading, and other sectors,” he said.

Payments, however, remain an unsolved challenge. “We’ve tried, but haven’t yet cracked it,” CZ admitted. “To be precise, cryptocurrencies haven’t meaningfully entered the payments space.”

Still, he sees progress in hybrid solutions that combine traditional payment rails with crypto infrastructure—consumers swipe cards while crypto is deducted from their wallets, and merchants receive fiat settlement. “Once those bridges are built, payments will undergo a major transformation,” he predicted.

Binance by the Numbers

CZ provided context on Binance’s current scale, highlighting metrics that underscore crypto’s mainstream arrival.

The exchange serves 300 million users globally—a figure CZ noted “likely makes it larger than any bank I know of.” Trading volume not only surpassed that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange but also exceeded that of the New York Stock Exchange last year.

He also pointed to the platform’s resilience during market stress. In December 2023, following the FTX collapse and other industry turmoil, Binance processed $7 billion in single-day withdrawals without disruption. Total withdrawals that week reached $14 billion while the platform remained fully operational.

“In the banking system, I’m unaware of any bank capable of withstanding withdrawals of that magnitude,” CZ said, attributing the difference to crypto’s full-reserve model versus traditional fractional-reserve banking.

What Won’t Survive

CZ also offered candid assessments of what may not last.

Bitcoin payments, despite a decade of effort, have shown little progress. “If you’d asked me this question ten years ago, I’d have said Bitcoin payments. But today, a decade later, we’re still nowhere close,” he said.

Memecoins face similar skepticism. “I have a strong hunch memes may follow a similar trajectory” to NFTs, which “exploded in popularity—and then faded dramatically.” While culturally resonant projects like Dogecoin may persist, “I believe most memecoins won’t last.”

Physical bank branches also face decline. “Demand for physical bank branches will decline sharply,” CZ predicted, citing the maturation of electronic KYC and digital financial services.

Regulatory Landscape

On regulation, CZ noted that crypto rules vary dramatically worldwide. Binance holds 22-23 licenses globally, yet most countries still lack formal frameworks.

He advocated for regulatory “passports” that recognize licenses granted in one jurisdiction by others—a more achievable step than creating new global regulators.

“Crypto is fundamentally the same everywhere. We shouldn’t need to adapt it per jurisdiction,” he said.

Nearly $2.3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, placing crypto markets at a critical inflection point as traders prepare for a potential volatility reset.

With positioning heavily concentrated around key strike levels, price action into and immediately after expiry could be driven less by fundamentals and more by mechanical hedging flows.

$2.3 Billion Crypto Options Expiry Puts Bitcoin and Ethereum at a Volatility Crossroads

Bitcoin accounts for the bulk of the notional value, with approximately $1.94 billion in BTC options rolling off.

Ahead of the expiry, Bitcoin is trading for $89,746, below its $92,000 max pain level, the price at which the greatest number of options contracts expire worthless.

Total open interest stands at 21,657 contracts, split between 11,944 calls and 9,713 puts, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 0.81.

Bitcoin Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

The skew suggests a modest bullish bias, though not an extreme one, leaving room for two-way volatility.

Meanwhile, Ethereum options make up the remaining $347.7 million in notional value. ETH is trading around $2,958, well below its $3,200 max pain level.

Open interest is significantly larger in absolute terms, with 117,513 contracts outstanding, comprising 63,796 calls and 53,717 puts. This produces a put-to-call ratio of 0.84. As with Bitcoin, positioning points to cautious optimism, though meaningful downside protection remains in place.

Ethereum Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

Notably, however, this week’s expiring options are slightly lower than the nearly $3 billion that rolled off last week.

Deribit Flags Strike Clustering as Macro Risks Keep Volatility Elevated

According to analysts at Deribit, the clustering of open interest near major strikes is likely to heighten short-term price sensitivity.

“Expiry positioning is tightly clustered around key strikes, keeping spot sensitive into the cut. Geopolitics and trade policy uncertainty remain the macro backdrop, supporting hedging demand and keeping vol reactive. Watch strike magnets, dealer hedging flows, and post expiry vol repricing,” they wrote.

That dynamic reflects a broader environment in which macro risks continue to dominate trader psychology.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, and uncertainty around global monetary conditions have pushed investors to rely more on hedging options than on outright directional bets.

This has kept implied volatility (IV) elevated and reactive, even during periods of relatively stable spot prices.

Heading into expiry, so-called “strike magnets” can exert a gravitational pull on prices as dealers adjust hedges to remain delta-neutral.

If spot prices drift closer to max pain levels, hedging flows can reinforce the move. Conversely, a sharp deviation away from key strikes can trigger rapid repositioning, amplifying volatility rather than suppressing it.

Once the contracts expire, attention is likely to shift to how volatility reprices heading into the weekend. A large expiry can release pent-up gamma exposure, sometimes leading to sharper post-expiry moves as the market recalibrates.

Accordingly, Bitcoin and Ethereum traders could witness a renewed directional push. This could either be a relief rally if selling pressure fades, or a downside move if macro fears reassert themselves.

With positioning dense, macro risks unresolved, and technical levels clearly defined, today’s expiring options may prove to be more about setting the tone for the next leg in BTC and ETH markets.

The Ralph Wiggum Price (RALPH) and Gas Town (GAS) meme coins have plunged by double digits over the past 24 hours, wiping out a significant portion of their market value. 

The decline has raised concerns about the durability of the emerging creator economy meta. Key questions remain about whether this new fundraising method can offer sustainable long-term value, or if it is repeating the short-lived spikes seen in previous crypto trends.

RALPH Token Nosedives After Developer’s Major Token Sale

Created on the BAGS app on Solana, the RALPH token commemorates the Ralph Wiggum Technique developed by Geoffrey Huntley. While he did not create or launch the token, Huntley later endorsed RALPH.

He also said that he would redirect his earnings and fees to purchase the meme coin. Moreover, Huntley was assigned 99% of royalties on a vesting schedule.

The token saw a notable rally, with its market cap surging to an all-time high of $58.74 million on January 21. However, RALPH saw its price collapse following on-chain revelations that the developer sold a significant portion of tokens.

Lookonchain identified that Huntley’s wallet (5f2Qj9) sold 7.68 million RALPH for 1,888 SOL worth approximately $245,000 across three transactions. The post added that another Huntley-linked wallet, 2mvtNn, holds 19.61 million RALPH.

This caused a massive downturn. The token lost 95.76% of its value over the past 24 hours. Market data showed that the token’s market cap has plunged to just $1.5 million, with its price at $0.0016.

RALPH Token Price Decline. Source: GeckoTerminal

Meanwhile, Huntley acknowledged the sale, describing it as “de-risking.”

“I still hold ralph btw,” he stated. “It’s been a fun two weeks where folks have made millions trading this coin backwards and forwards. fees have been lovely but i too also needed to derisk my investments. there’s still a long road ahead. this was the easiest way to think long term without entering into super weird/sketchy grant contracts which would have been restraining and risky.”

GAS Token Mirrors Decline Amid Widespread Questions

The GAS token, linked to Gas Town, an open-source multi-agent AI orchestration platform created by Steve Yegge, also saw a sharp pullback. Just last week, BeInCrypto reported on the token’s 500% rally.

Nonetheless, GAS has reversed course. The reversal appears to have coincided with Yegge’s comments, which may have influenced market sentiment and prompted a shift in trader behavior.

“Hi $GAS and CT community. I love this community, but I’m the creator and sole maintainer of Gas Town, which is going viral. It’s a tremendous burden and is taking most of my day (and money). That’s where my time has to go. I can’t spend much time with CT. I will still drop the occasional blog post, and join streams or podcasts. But I am dedicated to Gas Town and have to focus there. I hope you understand! That’s the life of the creator economy,” he posted.

Still, it’s worth noting that the geopolitical tensions, which weighed on risk assets more generally, may have amplified the sell-off. GeckoTerminal recorded a 47.8% drop over 24 hours. GAS’s market cap now stands at around $508,000 from a $57.69 million peak on January 16, 2026.

GAS Token Price Performance. Source: GeckoTerminal What Went Wrong With RALPH and GAS Creator Coins?

RALPH and GAS’s rapid declines have fueled doubts about the creator economy meta, which aims to finance developers through crypto. A crypto analyst stated that core structural problems lead to recurring failures.

“The RALPH and GAS drama are a good lesson in why no coin should have a single point of failure, let alone a single point of failure from outside CT. ICM doesn’t work if the only incentive is fee extraction. If devs just collect fees, there’s no reason for them to care about long-term price, narrative, or community health etc,” boot wrote.

The analyst likened it to NFT launches, where most revenue comes in early, prompting short-term behavior. The post added that when tokens reach $50 million in market cap, developer-owners with 2% to 3% stakes may be tempted to sell.

Another market watcher suggested that GAS and RALPH did not fail because of the developers but because of supply manipulation and coordinated profit extraction by the token launchers. The post frames the incident as market manipulation rather than a developer-led rug pull.

RALPH and GAS exemplify the wider shift toward community-driven fundraising for developers. While bypassing venture capital via decentralized tokens is promising, the recent crashes show that clear alignment between creators and holders remains vital.

In the coming weeks, the market will test whether the creator economy can evolve or if it will join the ranks of former unsuccessful crypto movements.

The Bank of Japan held its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.75% on Friday, while upgrading economic growth and inflation forecasts in a decision that carries significant long-term implications for cryptocurrency markets.

As Japan navigates a collision between monetary tightening and fiscal expansion ahead of snap elections, crypto markets face growing exposure to yen-driven liquidity shifts and potential unwinding of carry trades.

Split Vote Signals Internal Tension

The decision came in a split 8-1 vote, with board member Hajime Takata casting a lone dissent in favor of raising rates to 1.0%. Takata argued that mounting inflation pressures and improving global economic conditions support further tightening.

The BOJ raised its real GDP growth forecasts to 0.9% for fiscal 2025 and 1.0% for fiscal 2026, up from 0.7% in October projections. More notably, the central bank upgraded its core CPI forecast to 3.0% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026, signaling persistent inflationary pressures ahead.

December headline inflation came in at 2.1%, marking the 45th consecutive month above the BOJ’s 2% target—the longest such streak in decades.

Political Uncertainty Complicates Outlook

On the same day, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Cabinet approved the plan to dissolve Japan’s lower house of parliament, triggering a snap election scheduled for February 8. The move kicks off the shortest campaign period on record at just 16 days.

Takaichi has placed a two-year suspension of the 8% food sales tax at the center of her campaign, responding to voter concerns over soaring living costs. An NHK survey showed 45% of respondents ranked the high cost of living as their top priority.

Her proposed record $783 billion budget for the next fiscal year has fueled concerns over Japan’s fiscal trajectory. Bond yields have surged to multi-decade highs, while the yen has fallen 4.6% against the dollar since Takaichi took office in October, currently trading around 158.97.

Structural Implications for Crypto

While Bitcoin showed no immediate reaction to Friday’s decision, the evolving macro landscape in Japan poses structural risks for cryptocurrency markets.

The core concern centers on yen-funded carry trades. For years, investors have borrowed in low-yielding yen to finance positions in higher-yielding assets, including cryptocurrencies. As the BOJ signals continued policy normalization—with Takata’s dissent suggesting internal pressure for faster tightening—the risk of a sudden unwinding of the carry trade grows.

A sharp yen appreciation, whether triggered by hawkish BOJ communication or external shocks, could force leveraged investors to liquidate risk assets to cover yen-denominated liabilities. Historical precedent exists: the August 2024 market turmoil saw Bitcoin drop sharply as yen carry trades unwound amid speculation of a BOJ rate hike.

The policy divergence between Japan’s gradual tightening and Takaichi’s potential fiscal expansion adds another layer of uncertainty. Rising Japanese government bond yields could attract capital back to domestic fixed income, reducing global liquidity available for risk assets.

What to Watch

Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference later Friday will be closely scrutinized for signals on the timing of future rate hikes. Markets are particularly focused on how the BOJ balances its inflation-fighting mandate against election-related uncertainty and recent bond market volatility.

For crypto investors, the key variables remain the pace of BOJ normalization, yen exchange rate dynamics, and any signs of stress in leveraged positioning. While immediate volatility appears contained, the structural setup suggests Japan’s monetary policy trajectory will remain a critical macro factor for digital assets throughout 2025.

One might think that with a billion users, Telegram and its TON cryptocurrency would be world-beating. But just like many other cryptocurrencies, TON hasn’t performed well over the past year as crypto winter winds seem to be blowing hard. 

The blockchain lost nearly $700 million in TVL since its 2024 peak. So, is TON dead or the greatest comeback yet to come?

The Toncoin Tragedy

According to data aggregator CoinGecko, the price of TON is down 67% over the past year. That’s quite a cooling off for TON. 

Previously, Telegram-based meme coins such as Notcoin and Hamster Kombat had led to Toncoin hitting an all-time high of over $8 in June 2024.

TON TVL Chart Since 2024. Source: DefiLlama

While the price of TON hasn’t performed as well as those 2024 salad days, there is still forward motion in terms of development within the Telegram ecosystem. 

A favorable US environment led to Telegram Wallet becoming accessible to Americans in July 2025. 

In November 2025, Coinbase finally listed TON on its exchange, a likely nod to the messaging app’s roughly 100 million users in the United States. 

Now, as 2026 rolls out, Telegram is bringing along AI – and TON – into the future. 

A TON of DAT-titude

A sign of a maturing TON is that there are now several associated Digital Asset Treasuries, or DATs, operating around the ecosystem. Most well-known is the Manuel Stotz-run TON Strategy (NASDAQ: TONX). 

But there’s also AlphaTON (NASDAQ: ATON). rebranded from Portage Biotech in September 2025 and helping to hopefully spearhead a TON-AI evolution. 

Price performance of TON the past two years. Source: CoinGecko

At the heart of this is the decentralized protocol Cocoon AI, which Telegram CEO Pavel Durov announced in late 2025. 

AlphaTON is helping scale the decentralized AI network by securing a $46 million deal for NVIDIA GPUs to compete with centralized players like OpenAI and xAI, among others. 

“In the way that I see it, when I look at the biggest super apps in the world, most of them have their own AI,” AlphaTON CEO Brittany Kaiser told BeInCrypto. 

The big difference between many centralized AI players and crypto-backed decentralized ones is the self-sustaining economy they create. 

Organizations like AlphaTON are providing computing services for developers who want to build Cocoon AI-based apps within Telegram. 

But in a novel twist, to access Cocoon AI, developers have to pay for services in TON. This is not unlike the Bittensor-style economics where miners are providing the decentralized AI computing power while users must pay for the services in the Bittensor native TAO token. 

The Decentralized AI Economy

Building economic value for cryptocurrencies like TON by increasing demand could boost their prices. It’s something AlphaTON and strategic advisor and Skybridge Capital Founder Anthony Scaramucci told BeInCrypto he finds appealing. 

Having been White House Communications director for the first Trump Administration for ten days or, “like seconds, actually – it’s 954,000 seconds,” as Scaramucci likes to say, he’s big-time into various different cryptocurrency efforts and isn’t dismayed by market doldrums.  

Bitcoin price performance over the past year. Source: CoinGecko

“We frankly did get hit with a dark winter October 10th for all of the crypto, that would include Bitcoin,” Scaramucci told BeInCrypto. 

His firm, Skybridge, has been a major backer of TON – even before crypto’s recent turmoil. 

“I am a believer in a multi-chain society and multi-chain roles.” Mooch believes he can help AlphaTON’s effort strategically. “I signed on as a strategic advisor. We’re offering some marketing support. We’re offering some networking.”

Kaiser, the AlphaTON CEO, paints a bright future for the TON-Telegram-AI synergies, mentioning the custodial Telegram Wallet as a huge driver of a next-generation economy that can exist – all within the app itself.

“There’s over a billion monthly active users on Telegram, and there’s over 200 million users of the wallet,” Kaiser noted. 

AI in the Superapp

When thinking about the actual application of consumer artificial intelligence products, most of them, aside from OpenAI’s ChatGPT, live within existing services. 

Google’s Gemini is already inside of its Search product, XAI powers X’s Grok, and Meta AI works within Facebook, WhatsApp plus Instagram.

“In the way that I see it,  when I look at the biggest super apps in the world, most of them have their own AI,” noted Kaiser. 

Although Telegram’s Cocoon AI launched with minimal buzz, it has a chance to grow over time inside the Telegram “superapp” platform – a term that’s now popular to use for multifunction apps. Like Telegram. 

That’s the AlphaTON play, according to Kaisier. 

“We raised our first PIPE in order to buy a TON treasury, which is staking and validating and earning TON returns,” she noted.

Projected market size of AI over the next decade. Source: AI Statistics

AI as an industry is expected to grow to over $900 billion in 2026, according to data aggregator AI Statistics. 

“Now, being able to earn TON by providing GPUs to do AI is another way of us earning TON. And then we are also staking those revenues to earn TON on returns.” So AlphaTON is essentially TON-on-TON-on-TON. 

Keeping It All AI Rosy

Crypto, alongside the emergence of AI, is clearly looking for companies that can generate revenue. DATs, as public entities, have to make money to survive, which is why many of them are diversifying holdings into other business lines – like AlphaTON’s move with AI.

AlphaTON’s stock price over the past year. Source: Google Finance

The boom in AI, and “agents” that can do tasks for people while taking a cryptocurrency like TON is enticing to some investors who look past currency market doldrums and towards a rosier future. 

“I think that’s a huge opportunity, and I definitely see that there are a lot of third-party app developers on Telegram that are building new DeFi products, where AI agents are either making or executing financial transactions for you within the app,” Kaiser added. 

And Scaramucci also thinks he can help with this diversification. 

“Hopefully, there’s a few investments here that will probably end up in the AlphaTON vehicle that we’ll be responsible for,” he told BeInCrypto. 

It’s all cyclical to many investors who have a longer-term view than most. Scaramucci sees AlphaTON as a diverse investor in the Telegram and TON ecosystem that can eventually get back to TON’s 2024 glory days. 

“My feeling is that we’ll start with a plan and then over the next 24 to 36 months, we’ll have a fairly robust company with a great net operating income and lots of growth,” Scaramucci added.