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The Ondo (ONDO) price has been crushed, and that’s exactly why some traders think the opportunity is getting ignored. 

Ondo is one of the few Real-World Asset projects with real credibility in traditional finance, yet the token has sold off hard with the rest of the market.

Sarosh argues this isn’t about Ondo failing. It’s about liquidity cycles. When risk appetite disappears, everything bleeds, even projects that are quietly building real infrastructure. In his view, ONDO is getting treated like a random altcoin when it’s playing a completely different game.

Meanwhile, Sarosh’s main point is that prices lag liquidity. When liquidity dries up, tokens fall. When liquidity returns, coins rip higher, even the ones nobody expects.

He also warns that markets often pump late, right when liquidity is already fading. That’s where retail gets trapped chasing hype, and smart money starts scaling out. Ondo’s drop, in his eyes, looks more like a liquidity event than a project problem.

Part 1: $ONDO will rip higher with everything else at some point in this liquidity cycle. That’s commodities. That’s liquidity.That’s what happens when capital sloshes back into risk and lifts coins you’ve never heard of, doing things they have no business doing — when things…

— Sarosh (@SaroshQ2022) February 8, 2026

Ondo Isn’t Built Like a Meme Coin

The bigger thesis is that Ondo is trying to become an operating asset, not a narrative token. The goal is for ONDO to behave more like financial infrastructure, tied to real activity, real rails, and eventually real revenue.

If that happens, the investor base changes. It stops being short-term flipping and starts looking more like holding an asset connected to on-chain finance.

Sarosh compares it to buying disruptive tech before the market understands what it is. The regret doesn’t come from missing a pump. It comes from selling too early.

The ONDO Chart Shows the Disconnect: TVL Up, Price Down

The chart makes the situation even stranger. Ondo’s TVL has exploded, climbing toward the $3 billion range. That’s a massive signal of capital flowing into the ecosystem.

But the ONDO price has moved in the opposite direction, collapsing even as the protocol grows.

That gap is exactly what Michaël van de Poppe is pointing to. He calls this one of the clearest mispricings in the market, strong growth in locked value, paired with a beaten-down token.

This is where you'll find the best opportunities in the markets.One of them is $ONDO.Massive growth in TVL.Price collapsed.This period is the biggest mispricing ever in our industry and the final time that you're able to accumulate those positions. pic.twitter.com/XmiKwJ9xja

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 8, 2026

Read Also: Why is Humanity Protocol (H) Price Pumping Today?

Why This Could Be the Accumulation Window For ONDO

ONDO may still move with the broader cycle in the short term. It’s not immune to macro stress, flash crashes, or liquidity shocks.

But when sentiment flips back toward risk, projects with real traction tend to reprice fast. That’s why traders like Van de Poppe believe this is the kind of zone where accumulation happens quietly, before the crowd shows up.

 The ONDO price collapse looks ugly on the surface. But with TVL surging and real-world finance rails being built underneath, this may end up being remembered as one of the most obvious discounts of the cycle.

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The post Ondo (ONDO) Price Collapse Could Be the Biggest Mispricing in Crypto History appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.

The weekly close is almost here.

Bitcoin is holding a critical level — and that changes everything.

Despite the fake dump, price stayed strong.
This close could confirm the crash is done for now.

If bulls step in, things could move fast.
A violent relief rally toward 80K could wipe out late shorts.

Shorting here is playing with fire 🔥
Wait for a clear breakdown — or risk getting absolutely rekt.

Today, we are going to talk about something every beginner must understand before risking real money.
"why most traders lose money".
If you have ever wondered why some people seem to win consistently while others always lose, this thread will explain the key mistakes beginners make and how you can avoid them.
Let’s dive in
Many beginners think traders lose money because the market is hard.
That’s not the real reason.
Most traders lose money because of how they behave, not because of the strategy they use.
You can give 100 people the same strategy and most of them will still lose. Why? Because trading is more psychological than technical.
Here are the main reasons beginners lose money.n
1. No risk management.
They enter trades with big lot sizes, risking 20–50% of their account on one trade. One loss wipes them out. Professionals risk 1–2% per trade. Beginners gamble.

2. overtrading.
They feel they must always be in a trade. Every small move looks like an opportunity. They don’t understand that sometimes the best trade is no trade.

3. FOMO (fear of missing out).
They buy when price is already high and sell when price is already low. They chase candles instead of planning entries.

4. No trading plan.
They enter because of a signal, a tweet, or a feeling. No defined entry, no stop loss, no take profit. Just hope.
5. Revenge trading.
After a loss, they try to win it back immediately with a bigger trade. This usually leads to bigger losses.

6. Ignoring higher timeframes.
They trade only on small timeframes where noise is high and signals are weak. They don’t check the bigger picture.
7. Emotional decision making.
Fear makes them close winning trades too early. Greed makes them hold losing trades too long.
All these mistakes have one thing in common: lack of discipline.
The market rewards patience, planning and control. It punishes impulsive behavior.
The good news is this: you don’t need a complex strategy to be profitable. You need simple rules and the discipline to follow them.
Risk small per trade Wait for clear setups Follow a planAccept losses calmlyTrade less, think more
If you can master your behavior, you are already ahead of most traders.
Trading success is not about predicting the market. It’s about managing yourself.
If you learned something from this, follow me. I share beginner friendly crypto and forex lessons daily.
Also check out my other articles form beginners to learn from
1. How to read a candlestick chart in 5 minutes (Beginner Friendly Guide).
2. The biggest mistake beginners make in crypto and forex and how to avoid It.
3. What Liquidity Really Means And Why Price Hunts It.
4. Support and Resistance Explained Like a Street Market

is at a fascinating economic crossroads. After cooling off from its early-year peak near $2.40, the token is currently stabilizing in the $1.40 – $1.50 range. For the patient accumulator, the question isn't just about the price—it's about the structural shift occurring behind the scenes.
🏛️ The Economic Thesis
The "Ripple effect" in 2026 is no longer based on legal speculation. We have entered the Institutional Utility Era:
* The ETF Baseline: With over $1.37 billion already flowing into Spot XRP ETFs, a new "supply floor" has been established. Institutions are buying the spot asset to back these products, removing millions of XRP from exchanges.
* RWA Dominance: The XRP Ledger (XRPL) has seen its represented Real-World Asset (RWA) value surge by 265% in the last 30 days alone, reaching $1.4 billion. XRP isn't just a bridge; it’s becoming the settlement rail for tokenized treasuries.
📊 Professional Vision
Technically, XRP is testing its 200-day EMA (~$1.43). Historically, this is the "Golden Zone" for long-term accumulation. While short-term "risk-off" sentiment might cause a temporary wick toward $1.25, the macro-targets remain aggressive.
Standard Chartered models a base case of $8.00 by late 2026, driven by a projected $10B in ETF inflows.

If your horizon is 12–24 months, we are currently in a "Buy Zone." The regulatory discount is gone, and the utility era has begun. #BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund
$BTC $ETH

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, recently declared that Bitcoin is in a bear market that could extend through the third quarter of 2026.
He's not alone. Matt Hougan at Bitwise and a growing chorus of institutional voices are using the “bear” label more freely than at any point since early 2023.
Yet the same analysts often hedge with structure: many institutions are holding or adding exposure even as they acknowledge the regime shift.
This creates a definitional problem. If a bear market no longer means capitulation and exodus, what does it mean?
And if the famous four-year cycle is dead, as VanEck, K33 Research, and 21Shares have each argued in recent reports, how long does a bear market last when the old calendar no longer applies?
What configures a bear market
The traditional finance definition for a bear market offers a starting point.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission defines a bear market as a broad index falling 20% or more over at least two months. Bitcoin cleared that threshold months ago.
From its early October 2025 peak above $126,000, BTC has declined by roughly 41% to approximately $74,000 as of Feb. 3. By the headline standard, the case is closed.
However, Coinbase Institutional research explicitly calls the 20% threshold “somewhat arbitrary” and less applicable to crypto, where 20% swings can happen without a true regime change.
In practice, analysts rely on a three-part dashboard: price trend, positioning and derivatives, and demand and liquidity.
Price trend is the most visible. CryptoQuant leans heavily on the 365-day moving average as a boundary marker.
Bitcoin currently trades below that level, which sits around $101,448. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index, a composite measure of on-chain health, registered 20 out of 100, described as extreme bear territory.
Coinbase has used the 200-day moving average in past cycle analyses to qualify bear regimes, and Bitcoin remains below that threshold as well.
Positioning and derivatives offer a second signal. Glassnode's recent Week On-Chain reports document rotation toward downside protection, bearish skew in options markets, and conditions that increase downside sensitivity, including dealer gamma below zero.
When traders pay premiums to hedge against further declines rather than to capture upside, the market is behaving defensively.
Demand and liquidity provide the structural context. CoinShares estimates that large holders have sold approximately $29 billion in Bitcoin since October. Digital asset exchange-traded products saw approximately $440 million in year-to-date outflows.
CryptoQuant and MarketWatch characterize the current regime as weak demand combined with contracting stablecoin liquidity, classic ingredients of a bear market.
The latest Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode global investor survey, conducted from Dec. 10, 2025, to Jan. 12, 2026, found that 26% of institutions now describe the market as being in the bear phase. The results are up from just 2% in the prior survey.
Yet the same survey revealed that 62% of institutions held or increased net long exposure since October, and 70% view Bitcoin as undervalued.
This disconnect is the defining feature of the 2026 bear market. It's not about capitulation—it's about regime recognition while maintaining structural exposure.
The label “bear market” is becoming less about who is fleeing and more about who is still buying, even as sentiment remains terrible.

When does this bear market end?
Defining the end of a bear market requires clarity about what “end” means.
The most rigorous approach treats it as a regime shift rather than a feeling. Analysts identify three practical triggers: trend reclamation, demand inflection, and risk appetite normalization.
Trend reclaim occurs when Bitcoin regains and holds above long-term moving averages, such as the 200-day or 365-day, for multiple weeks.
Demand inflection means exchange-traded fund and exchange-traded product flows shift from subdued or negative to sustained inflows, and large-holder distribution slows.
Risk appetite normalization means options skew returns to balanced levels, with less demand for downside protection and leverage building sustainably.
The forward-looking scenarios cluster into three time horizons, each supported by specific analyst commentary.
The first scenario is a classic crypto winter that extends through mid or late 2026.
Julio Moreno has identified $70,000 over three to six months and $56,000 in the second half of 2026 as a deeper potential path. This scenario assumes demand stays weak, flows remain negative, and Bitcoin fails repeated attempts to reclaim its moving averages. Bear-market rallies happen but fail to hold.
The second scenario is a shorter, shallower bear market lasting three to six months, characterized by choppy, range-bound price action, followed by improving conditions in the second half of 2026.
CoinShares explicitly expects a choppy three-to-six-month period, with medium-term constructive conditions as whale selling exhausts by mid-2026.
In this framing, the bear market is more about time than depth: a regime in which upside is capped until demand reverses, but the floor holds.
The third scenario treats the bear market as a liquidity-wave event rather than a calendar-based cycle.
The bear ends when demand and liquidity re-accelerate, regardless of what the halving clock says. This maps directly onto CryptoQuant's demand-led framing and avoids determinism stemming from halving. It acknowledges that the old playbook may no longer apply.

Is this bear market smaller than past cycles?
The current drawdown of roughly 40% is already small compared to the stereotypical over 70% crypto winters of prior cycles.
However, multiple analysts' downside scenarios cluster around $55,000 to $60,000, implying a total drawdown closer to the mid-50% range if realized.
That would still be smaller than historic extremes but meaningful enough to qualify as a bear market by any standard.
The market is also increasingly bifurcated. Bitcoin holds structural leadership, whereas much of the rest of the crypto market performs far worse.
The Coinbase and Glassnode report emphasize this via dominance metrics and defensive positioning behavior. The 2026 market is K-shaped, and the “bear market” may affect asset classes unevenly.
The four-year cycle is over, but what replaces it?
VanEck argued in 2025 that the four-year cycle had broken and that the old playbook was less reliable.
K33 Research published a report titled “4-year cycle is dead, long live the king,” which lays out why the regime changed.
21Shares describes the cycle as evolving, potentially extending to five years, as liquidity waves lengthen and institutional participation deepens.
What replaces the four-year clock is a liquidity-and-flows clock. This includes real yields, global liquidity impulses, flows of exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded products, stablecoin liquidity, and hedging demand.
CoinShares explicitly frames Bitcoin's recent dislocation in terms of relationships with precious metals and macro liquidity. Coinbase and Glassnode emphasize a defensive derivatives posture as a real-time regime indicator.
The implication for bear market duration is that bear markets may become more frequent but less severe. Instead of existential winters, the market may experience more frequent regime drawdowns if institutional flows provide a floor.
Rallies can still fail until demand and liquidity turn, but the underlying structure may prevent the kind of multi-year capitulation that has defined past cycles.
This creates a paradox. The bear market may last longer in calendar time but inflict less damage in percentage terms. Or it may end sooner if demand inflects before the old cycle logic would predict.
Either way, the clock that governed Bitcoin for a decade no longer governs it.

he checklist matters more than the calendar
In 2026, calling a bear market isn't one metric, but a checklist.
Trend breaks, hedging demand, and a demand-liquidity rollover all point in the same direction. Bitcoin is in a bear regime by most frameworks that matter.
When it ends depends less on the halving calendar and more on the timing of the demand cycle. CoinShares expects three to six months of chop. CryptoQuant sees potential for deeper lows in the second half of the year.
Both could be right at different moments if the regime oscillates rather than resolves cleanly.
The four-year cycle is dead, but the question of when this bear ends is not unanswerable. It ends when Bitcoin reclaims its long-term moving averages, when institutional flows turn positive, and when options markets stop pricing for protection.
Until then, the market is in a regime where upside is capped, and patience is required. Even if institutions keep buying while calling it a bear.

#BTC $BTC

Although it is said that heroes do not ask about their origins, as a product of the education system in mainland China, Yi Lihua, who took the college entrance examination three times to get into a printing and publishing professional school, what do you small-town problem solvers think?
To the capable LPs, what do you think about the non-financial background of the fund manager?
Received.
Yi Lihua's good father-in-law
Back in 2017, Lou Jiyue used his father Lou Weizhong's privilege as the president of the Citic Bank Xiaoshan branch to directly borrow over 10 million yuan using a house as collateral, fully supporting his son-in-law Yi Lihua's All in blockchain.

Example 1: Selling U gets bitten back by 'dirty money' (most common)

Background:

Xiao Zhang sells USDT on a trading platform (OTC), with an order of 10,000 U.

The buyer paid quickly using a bank card transfer.

Process:

Xiao Zhang confirms receipt → Releases currency
2 days later, the bank card was suddenly frozen
Bank notification: 'Suspected of receiving fraud-related funds, cooperate with police investigation'

Truth:

The buyer used the money of the fraud victim
Funding chain:

Fraud victim → Buyer's bank card → Xiao Zhang's bank card

Although Xiao Zhang is a normal transaction, he is considered a 'transitional receiver' in the funding path

Just a few days ago, something scarier than a horror movie happened in the crypto world, a superstar with five hundred and eighty thousand Ethereum is being publicly executed.Can you believe it? This former big shot worth seventy-six billion dollars is now kneeling in front of A's algorithm, trembling.From four thousand eight hundred to 1740 dollars, the ten billion dollars of circular loans he was doing on Aave have collapsed, and now the entire network is watching this financial death penalty. To avoid being forcefully liquidated by the system, he is trying to avoid crazy selling of coins.What do you call this? This is called cutting losses to replenish margins. The more he sells, the lower the price drops; the lower the price drops, the more he has to sell. It’s a hopeless death spiral. This is how capital died in 2022. The script for 2026 hasn't changed at all, many people ask what leverage really is.

The chart highlights several important periods.

During March-April 2025, whale to exchange flow remained very low while price showed weak reactions. Whales were not selling, supply tightened, and this was followed by a sharp rally in July 2025.

In June-July 2025, while the ratio was still near historical lows, the initial rally began. As price moved higher, profit-taking followed, and whale flow spiked near the peak, signaling distribution.

During December 2025 January 2026, the ratio again stayed very low while price continued to decline. Selling pressure during this period was mainly driven by retail investors, not whales.

Currently, Whale to Exchange Flow remains near historical lows, while price has dropped sharply to around $1.42. This decline is not accompanied by sustained whale selling. Panic selling is largely coming from smaller investors, while whales appear to be waiting for better opportunities.

Based on historical behavior, price may continue to move sideways or slightly lower in the short term as volatility decreases. This could be followed by sudden, low-volume upside wicks. When a real rally begins, whale selling is likely to appear, potentially leading to deeper pullbacks.

Tracking this metric specifically on Binance is critical. Binance has the highest spot and derivatives volume in XRP and the deepest order books. It is the primary trading venue for whales and institutions. While other exchanges may reflect transfers or wallet movements, the capital that truly moves price is concentrated on Binance.

In summary, Binance Whale to Exchange Flow measures action, not expectation, and acts as a leading indicator by capturing behavior before price reacts.

Written by PelinayPA

#雪球社区 At the beginning of 2025, shiploads of heavy gold came directly from Russia to the East Port. Customs data is astonishing: the net import for the whole year reached 25.3 tons, soaring 800% year-on-year! Both in weight and value, it set a new historical high for gold trade between the two countries.

But how does Russia have so much gold when the West has clearly frozen hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian assets? The answer is chilling: what the West has frozen is "money on the books," while what Putin is exporting is the "anti-sanction weapon" buried deep in the ground - physical gold.

These gold bars are just lying in the Moscow central bank vault and the secret warehouse in the Far East. Not relying on SWIFT and not fearing US dollar settlements, they are truly "hard currency."