CryptoQuant Quicktake

The chart shows very strong inflows in mid March, followed immediately by sharp outflows, which is notable. Currently, netflow appears slightly positive and more balanced compared to March. This indicates that available liquidity for buyers is increasing. Since stablecoins are directly used to purchase BTC, ETH, and altcoins, these inflows represent potential buying power.

If investors are moving funds to exchanges instead of keeping them in banks or cold wallets, it means they are preparing to take positions. This typically occurs either in anticipation of buying the dip or positioning ahead of expected news. Usually, whales and institutions first send stablecoins to exchanges, then often open short positions, triggering a market drop. After realizing profits, they switch to spot buying at lower levels. Tracking whale behavior has historically been profitable. However, this expectation is based on past patterns and is not guaranteed. Therefore, monitoring inflows and outflows remains crucial.

If inflows increase while prices are declining as we see now it suggests that capital is entering for dip buying, and smart money may be accumulating. Binance is the primary hub for institutional and whale activity, making stablecoin inflows to Binance particularly important to watch.

Recently, the presence of small but consistent positive netflows along with sideways EMA trends indicates liquidity accumulation. In the short term, this can lead to increased volatility and raises the probability of a bullish fake breakout.

Stablecoin inflows typically move first into BTC, then ETH, and finally into altcoins. Therefore, this data could be an early signal of an altcoin season. However, it does not start immediately it is a process and currently in its earliest phase. The beginning of a full altcoin season may take months, and it is generally more appropriate to expect it after a major market bottom has formed.

Written by PelinayPA

As depicted in the chart, the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-7) for Ethereum’s “Total Transfer Count” has once again breached the 1.3 million mark, returning to its All-Time High (ATH) previously recorded in mid-February.

This milestone offers several on-chain signals:

Fundamental Strength & High Utility: Reaching an ATH in transfers reflects a highly robust network, increasing user adoption and a dynamic ecosystem (likely driven by DeFi, Layer 2 scaling solutions, and other smart contract activities). It shows Ethereum is not merely being held as an asset; it is being actively utilized.

Price vs. Activity Divergence: While the transaction count is at its absolute peak, Ethereum’s price (the black line) is consolidating around the 2,100 level, remaining significantly below its historical price highs. This creates a compelling bullish divergence. The network’s intrinsic value and real-world utility are expanding at a faster pace than its market valuation, suggesting ETH may currently be undervalued.

Enhanced Deflationary Impact: Higher transfer volumes naturally translate to increased gas consumption. Under Ethereum’s fee-burning mechanism, this accelerates the burning of circulating ETH, generating indirect and continuous long-term buying pressure.

The unprecedented surge in the Total Transfer Count metric confirms that real, organic demand for the Ethereum blockchain is at its peak. If this strong utility trend persists, the probability of the price eventually catching up with these robust on-chain fundamentals in the mid-term remains highly favorable.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin is showing a clear transfer of supply from weaker hands to stronger ones.

That shift is becoming visible across both exchange flow and realized cap data. Whale inflows to Binance have dropped sharply, while long-term holders are rebuilding exposure and short-term holders remain under pressure.

On Binance, the 30-day whale inflow fell to $2.96 billion, dropping below $3 billion for the first time since June 2025. At the same time, LTH Realized Cap Change (30d) rose to $49 billion on April 9, marking its second return to that level since March 26. Meanwhile, STH Realized Cap Change (30d) fell to -$54 billion, its third drop below -$50 billion since March 2.

Taken together, the data suggests weaker holders are still distributing, while long-term holders are stepping back in to absorb supply.

Written by Amr Taha

Binance data on XRP indicates a significant decline in trading activity recently, with the Z-Score falling to its lowest level since 2025. This clearly points to weakening market momentum and a decrease in short-term trader interest.

The Volume Z-Score (30d) reflects the extent to which current trading volume deviates from its 30-day average. When the index falls into negative territory, it means that current trading volume is below the historical average, indicating reduced activity and liquidity. According to recent data, the index has dropped below -1, marking one of its lowest levels since 2025 and reflecting a clear slowdown in XRP trading on the Binance platform.

Meanwhile, the price of XRP has shown a gradual downward trend over the same period, declining from higher levels in 2025 to lower ranges recently. This suggests that the decrease in trading volume has coincided with weakening price action. A decline in trading volume is typically associated with a period of market anticipation, during which investors prefer to wait for clearer signals before entering new positions.

A decline in the Z-Score also indicates reduced investor participation, particularly among short-term traders who rely heavily on momentum and trading volume. When activity drops to these levels, the market often enters a consolidation phase, which typically precedes strong upward or downward price movements.

On the other hand, this decline may also reflect reduced market volatility, with fewer large buy and sell orders resulting in weaker price action. This pattern is common after periods of high activity, as the market tends to enter a rebalancing phase.

Written by Arab Chain

Bear market bottoming is a marathon of exhaustion. While data suggests we are halfway through, a final "wash-out" is likely still ahead. As the saying goes: history may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

On-Chain Indicators：

1. Whale Profits (Unrealized): LTH Whales (>155 days) still hold significant profit buffers. Historically, true bottoms occur only when these profits approach zero, forcing a final transfer of chips from "strong hands" to the desperate.

2. MVRV Z-Score: This valuation metric is cooling but has yet to enter the negative/undervalued zone. Every "iron bottom" in history has seen this score dip below zero; currently, the market is merely cooling, not despairing.

3. Cost Basis (STH vs. LTH): A "Death Cross"—where Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price falls below Long-Term Holder (LTH) price—is the ultimate capitulation signal. This hasn't happened yet, meaning the final shuffle is incomplete.

🔮 Cycle Predictions:

1. The Bottom: Oct-Dec 2026

Rationale: At current trajectories, the STH and LTH cost curves should converge in Q4 2026. This timing aligns with a potential sub-zero MVRV Z-Score and a final panic sell-off by whales.

Target: $55K – $60K, coinciding with a sub-zero MVRV Z-Score.

2. The Next Peak: 2nd half of 2029

Rationale: Following a late 2026 bottom, we expect a two-year accumulation phase. Combined with the April 2028 Halving, the market typically peaks 12–18 months post-halving, making late 2029 the likely window for the next parabolic bull run.

Written by Sunny Mom

Despite a persistently uncertain macro environment, several signals point to a gradual improvement in Ethereum, particularly on the derivatives side.

It has been nearly three years since such a setup was last observed in the ETH Taker Buy Sell Ratio on Binance.

The indicator has now moved back into positive territory, with a monthly average around 1.016, and has been holding above 1 for several consecutive days. This reflects a progressive return of buyer dominance on perpetual markets, suggesting the early stages of a more constructive trend.

This signal is particularly relevant given that Binance accounts for over 37% of total ETH open interest, making it a key venue for assessing derivatives positioning.

As a reminder, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio measures the relationship between market buy and sell volumes on perpetual contracts.

When the ratio is above 1, it indicates that buy orders are dominant, reflecting a bullish bias.

Conversely, a ratio below 1 signals stronger selling pressure and a more bearish sentiment.

This therefore marks a constructive development for Ethereum, not seen since 2023.

Moreover, this shift is unfolding gradually, without excessive spikes, which is typically healthier in derivatives markets that are often prone to rapid imbalances and liquidation cascades.

Written by Darkfost

March 2026 marked a clear shift toward Ethereum in the crypto market. While Bitcoin gained just +1.83%, Ethereum rose +7.12%, signaling a notable capital rotation. This divergence reflects structural change rather than simple price action. Bitcoin’s market cap slightly declined (-0.43%), whereas Ethereum’s grew (+2.97%), suggesting capital reallocation toward higher return opportunities.

Ethereum also showed higher realized volatility (62.8% vs. Bitcoin’s 49.8%), reinforcing its role as a higher-beta asset. Despite a strong correlation (~0.94), ETH reacts more aggressively to shifts in liquidity and risk appetite, effectively acting as a leveraged market beta.

More importantly, supply dynamics favor ETH. Continued exchange outflows indicate reduced sell pressure and rising long-term holding. On-chain data further supports this. The Coinbase Premium Gap remains negative but is improving, signaling early-stage recovery in U.S. demand. Meanwhile, Active Addresses continue trending higher, pointing to growing network usage.

This combination suggests a typical early-cycle structure: institutional demand has not fully returned, but real usage is already expanding. Ethereum’s ecosystem — including stablecoins, DeFi, and tokenized assets — strengthens its role as a financial infrastructure layer, unlike Bitcoin’s store-of-value focus.

Although declining volume implies some liquidity-driven price action, ETH currently benefits from simultaneous capital inflow, supply tightening, and ecosystem growth. This positions Ethereum as a structurally stronger asset in the current phase, with potential to outperform further as liquidity conditions improve.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Ethereum’s available sell-side supply continues to thin across major exchanges, a sign that less ETH is sitting on trading venues and ready to be sold.

That matters because reserve declines across multiple exchanges usually point to a broader supply contraction, not just an isolated move on one platform.

In this case, the trend has appeared across Coinbase, Binance, Gemini, and OKX.

On Coinbase, ETH reserves fell from 5.6 million in early August 2025 to 3.2 million ETH by April 9, 2026. On Binance, reserves dropped from 4.75 million ETH on August 11, 2025 to 3.3 million ETH on April 9, 2026.

Other exchanges also saw sharp declines.

Gemini recorded an almost 74,000 ETH drop in a single day on February 19, while OKX saw reserves fall from around 990,000 ETH on March 20 to just 167,000 ETH by April 9.

Taken together, the data shows Ethereum reserves continuing to contract across major venues, reducing the amount of ETH immediately available for sale on exchanges.

Written by Amr Taha

U.S.-Iran risk is not fully gone. A fragile ceasefire is under strain, U.S. forces are still positioned around Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz issue remains unresolved. In that kind of environment, capital usually moves defensively first, often toward cash-like instruments such as stablecoins.

That is why these three metrics matter. CryptoQuant defines Exchange Reserve as the total amount of coins held on exchange addresses, and a falling reserve generally points to lower available sell-side supply. Exchange Stablecoins Ratio tracks BTC reserves relative to stablecoin reserves on exchanges, while SSR compares Bitcoin’s market cap to total stablecoin market cap. Lower SSR means relatively stronger stablecoin buying power.

The chart structure is constructive. Bitcoin Exchange Reserve has fallen toward multi-year lows, Exchange Stablecoins Ratio has compressed toward the bottom of its range, and SSR has reset sharply from prior highs. In plain English, fewer BTC appear to be sitting on exchanges while stablecoin liquidity looks relatively stronger. That does not guarantee upside, but it does suggest the market still has dry powder instead of showing pure liquidation stress.

This is the geopolitical read-through: if fear headlines keep hitting but BTC does not fully break down while stablecoin-linked metrics stay supportive, then the market may be converting fear into sidelined buying power rather than outright exit. In that case, any meaningful de-escalation could trigger a fast relief move.

Risk management still matters. These metrics are not standalone trade signals. If geopolitical stress worsens and Exchange Reserve starts rising while SSR also turns higher, that would imply fresh BTC supply is returning to exchanges and stablecoin buying power is fading. Until that happens, the bigger message is simple: the news flow is producing fear, but on-chain liquidity does not look exhausted.

Written by The Alchemist 9

Both legs ended at exchanges. ⚠️

Last time STH behavior was this erratic on both sides of a price move: March 2024 distribution top.

- Apr 3-5: BTC 66.5K-67.5K, P&L slightly negative - sending at a loss, low volume, no panic

- Apr 6-7: price ripped to 71.5K, STH P&L spiked to +2.5K BTC - profit-intent inflows staged at exchanges on both pumps

- Apr 7-8: price retraced to 68K, P&L crashed to -2.7K BTC - underwater holders sending to exchanges, capitulation pressure elevated

- Apr 8-9: recovery to 72K+, P&L flipped positive again - same playbook, sell-side supply reloaded into the rip

Every pump: exchange inflows in profit. Every dip: exchange inflows at a loss.

Neither direction is being absorbed. Overhead supply is not clearing.

Bearish bias. Until loss-sending dries up on dips and profit inflows stop on pumps, this is a churn market - not a base.

Written by IT Tech

Ethereum data indicates that approximately 82 million ETH were withdrawn from exchanges during the first quarter of 2026. This relatively high amount suggests increased demand for ETH withdrawals outside of exchanges. Binance recorded withdrawals of approximately 33 million ETH, OKX recorded approximately 11 million ETH, and Coinbase recorded approximately 6 million ETH, while the remaining amount was distributed among other exchanges.

This elevated level of withdrawals reflects a notable shift in investor behavior, as large amounts of Ethereum moving off exchanges are typically associated with accumulation and long-term holding strategies. When investors withdraw assets from exchanges, it often indicates reduced intent to sell in the short term, which can contribute to tightening available supply in the market. This trend is particularly significant when withdrawals occur across multiple major exchanges simultaneously, suggesting broader market participation rather than isolated activity.

Binance leading withdrawals with 33 million ETH highlights its continued dominance in global trading activity and liquidity. Large outflows from Binance often carry strong market implications, as the platform hosts a significant share of retail and institutional trading volume. Similarly, withdrawals from OKX and Coinbase further reinforce the narrative of sustained demand, especially considering Coinbase is commonly associated with institutional investors. The presence of notable outflows from Coinbase may indicate growing institutional accumulation during this period.

Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin consolidates at $72,411.9 (+1% 24h | +8.22% 7d), masking a dangerous divergence in the market's microstructure. The Binance USDT Refresh Rate Z-Score (SMA-30) indicator, which remains in negative territory (-1.56), confirms the apathy in the organic injection of spot dollars. This pause in the buying flow has attracted aggressive local and global bearish positions: the Bitcoin: Funding Rates - Binance anchored at -0.002009, in total synchrony with the Bitcoin: Funding Rates - All Exchanges, which also retreated into the same negative territory (-0.001855).

INSTITUTIONAL INTERPRETATION

Accompanied by a growing Bitcoin: Estimated Leverage Ratio - All Exchanges of 0.22, the scenario shows that tactical traders are gradually increasing leverage in short positions (Shorts), assuming that the market lacks the capital momentum to break through resistances.

RISK ASYMMETRY

The tactical error of this reading is ignoring macro-liquidity. The Bitcoin: Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) currently stands at 10.51 — far from the liquidity depletion levels typical of cycle tops (above 16). Meanwhile, the Bitcoin: Exchange Stablecoins Ratio USD - All Exchanges revealed an increase in reserves, over the same period, of 47.35% (1.59). Mathematically, there is an ocean of stablecoins (dry powder) just watching the market from the sidelines. The risk asymmetry turns against the short sellers: with vast idle liquidity and excess leverage in Shorts, the probability of a cascading Short Squeeze assumes the central weight.

CONCLUSION

Traders betting on the downside below $70,000 are focused on short-term apathy, but ignore or are unaware of the mountains of stablecoins parked on the sidelines. The global market is not out of fuel; it merely awaits the panic of short sellers to ignite a violent wave of liquidations.

Written by GugaOnChain

Ethereum just saw a sharp cleanup of weak long positions on Binance, with late buyers taking the hit.

That matters because this was not broad strength returning to the market. It was a one-sided flush, showing that aggressive buyers who entered too late were forced out around the same price zone.

On the ETH: Binance Liquidation Delta chart, two major liquidation events stand out clearly.

The first reached about $206 million near $2,020, followed by a larger $258 million liquidation event near $2,027.

The liquidation pressure was concentrated almost entirely on the long side, meaning the traders who got wiped were mostly late buyers. When this kind of one-sided move appears, it usually reflects fragile short-term positioning and an overcrowded long setup that the market failed to sustain.

Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin consolidates at $72,141.43 (+1.19% 24h | +7.83% 7d), masking a dangerous divergence in the market's microstructure. The Binance USDT Refresh Rate Z-Score (SMA-30) indicator, which remains in negative territory (-1.56), confirms the apathy in the organic injection of spot dollars. This pause in the buying flow has attracted aggressive local and global bearish positions: the Bitcoin: Funding Rates - Binance anchored at -0.002009, in total synchrony with the Bitcoin: Funding Rates - All Exchanges, which also retreated into the same negative territory (-0.001855).

INSTITUTIONAL INTERPRETATION

Accompanied by a growing Bitcoin: Estimated Leverage Ratio - All Exchanges of 0.22, the scenario shows that tactical traders are gradually increasing leverage in short positions (Shorts), assuming that the market lacks the capital momentum to break through resistances.

RISK ASYMMETRY

The tactical error of this reading is ignoring macro-liquidity. The Bitcoin: Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) currently stands at 10.51 — far from the liquidity depletion levels typical of cycle tops (above 16). Meanwhile, the Bitcoin: Exchange Stablecoins Ratio USD - All Exchanges revealed an increase in reserves, over the same period, of 47.35% (1.59). Mathematically, there is an ocean of stablecoins (dry powder) just watching the market from the sidelines. The risk asymmetry turns against the short sellers: with vast idle liquidity and excess leverage in Shorts, the probability of a cascading Short Squeeze assumes the central weight.

CONCLUSION

Traders betting on the downside at $71k are focused on short-term apathy, but ignore the mountains of stablecoins parked on the sidelines. The global market is not out of fuel; it merely awaits the panic of short sellers to ignite a violent wave of liquidations.

Written by GugaOnChain

Bitcoin is trading above $71,000, but Binance data suggests the latest move higher is still facing only limited profit-taking rather than broad panic selling.

The clearest signal comes from the 7-day standard deviation in Binance short-term holder realized profit/loss pressure, which fell to 260 on April 9.

That is close to the 251 seen on March 26 and below the 277 recorded on February 28. In simple terms, short-term holder behavior has become calmer even as BTC remains elevated above $71K.

This time, the pressure reading is cooling instead of expanding.

So far, that points more to a controlled market structure than to a broad rush to exit.

A second Binance chart supports the same idea.

On April 8, the 1 day to 1 week holder group sent about 95 BTC to Binance.

That likely reflects profit-taking from smaller or very short-term investors, but it does not yet look like large-scale distribution from older holder cohorts.

Taken together, the data suggests that some fast-money participants are realizing gains into strength, but the broader market is not showing signs of widespread panic.

As long as short-term holder pressure stays near these relatively low levels, Bitcoin’s move above $71,000 appears to be meeting selective selling, not heavy market-wide liquidation.

Written by Amr Taha

Throughout the chart, the ratio frequently falls below 1. This indicates that on the market order side, sellers are acting more aggressively than buyers. However, despite this persisting for a long time, Ethereum’s price has not entered a full collapse trend. This suggests that passive buyers (limit bids) are, interestingly, holding the market up.

In mid 2025, as the price rose from around $2K to $4K, the ratio failed to sustain a consistent upward move. The rally did not occur with strong market buy dominance, but rather appears to have been driven by liquidity gaps and passive demand. This is why the uptrend was not sustainable.

The recent mismatch between price and ratio serves as evidence that buying pressure is being absorbed by selling. This type of structure is typically seen in environments where whales are exiting their positions.

According to the chart, the price does not have the structure to rise without first moving down and collecting liquidity. It is very weak, low in volume, and every small upward move is met with selling pressure. For this reason, it is difficult to expect ETH to rise without forming a new bottom first.

Written by PelinayPA

XRP accumulation and distribution data on Binance (SUM 30D) indicate a significant decline in market activity recently, with both accumulation and distribution falling to their lowest levels since 2021. This clearly points to a noticeable weakening in investor activity and reduced market liquidity.

The data shows that 30-day accumulation recently stabilized at approximately 2.06 billion XRP, while 30-day distribution reached around 2.09 billion XRP, resulting in a net negative accumulation of approximately -36 million XRP. This slight advantage of distribution over accumulation reflects continued selling pressure, with investors tending to reduce their positions rather than increase their exposure to the asset.

The fact that both accumulation and distribution have reached their lowest levels since 2021 is a significant indicator of declining overall market activity, which is typically associated with periods of calm or anticipation before larger market movements. Weak accumulation suggests a decrease in buying activity, while declining distribution also indicates reduced selling activity, reflecting an overall drop in investor participation.

The move in net accumulation into negative territory further reinforces this view, indicating a slight but continued dominance of selling pressure despite the overall decline in activity. Such periods often signal a transitional phase in the market, where activity slows before a new trend begins.

Written by Arab Chain

USDC (ERC20) still looks active. Since Apr 9, 2025, active addresses rose from roughly 78.8K to 210.3K, up about 167%. Transfer event count also climbed from 283.6K to 633.0K, up about 123%. Network usage clearly expanded.

But the supply side tells a different story. Circulating supply was roughly 40.7B about a year ago and now stands near 35.3B, down about 13.2%. It is also roughly 32.2% below the cycle peak near 52.0B reached in mid-November.

The exchange metrics matter even more. Exchange Supply Ratio now sits near 0.0948, down about 12.6% over the last 30 days and roughly 9.1% below its 30D SMA. That points to less USDC sitting on spot exchanges on the right edge, not more.

Exchange Netflow confirms the same shift on the right edge. Over the last 30 days, netflow was negative by roughly 824M, with more negative days than positive ones. That is net exchange outflow, not fresh exchange buildup.

Tokens Transferred (Total) helps refine the picture. Total transferred volume is still much higher than it was a year ago, up about 60.7% since Apr 9, 2025. But right now it is not accelerating. Over the last 30 days, transferred volume is down about 2.6% and sits roughly 20.6% below its 30D SMA.

That matters. Activity is still there. But large-scale transfer volume is not expanding on the right edge, and exchange-side supply is still shrinking.

This is not dormant stablecoin behavior. But it is not exchange accumulation either 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

Today, nearly 1 BTC out of 2 is held at a loss.

More precisely, the share of Bitcoin supply still in profit is estimated at around ~59%, a level close to what was observed during the last bear market.

This may seem counterintuitive to some, but the market actually needs investors in profit to sustain a positive momentum. Historically, the average sits closer to ~75% of supply in profit.

We are therefore well below typical levels today.

Looking at the data, the 50% level appears to be a key threshold. We are not there yet, but historically bear markets have tended to bottom around that area.

This chart helps assess when losses or profits become significant across the market.

The strategy is relatively straightforward :

— Accumulate when losses reach extreme levels, positioning yourself ahead of a majority of investors.

— Reduce exposure when profits approach 100%.

The current environment appears more suited for accumulation than for selling at this stage.

Written by Darkfost

Long-Term Holder SOPR (30D SMA) is compressing toward the neutral level (~1), reflecting a contraction in realized profits among long-term holders.

This metric captures whether coins held for more than 155 days are being spent at a profit or loss, representing the realized behavior of long-term holders.

Historically, sustained resets of LTH-SOPR toward or below 1 have aligned with phases of profit-taking exhaustion and structural reset in the market.

During prior cycle bottoms, LTH-SOPR moved decisively below 1, signaling that long-term holders were realizing losses and that capitulation had emerged.

In contrast, LTH-SOPR is stabilizing near 1, without entering the deeply negative regime seen during prior bottoms.

This suggests that while profit-taking pressure has been largely absorbed, the market has not yet entered the structural stress typically associated with major accumulation phases.

Source: CryptoQuant

Written by Zizcrypto