CryptoQuant Quicktake

On-chain demand continues to deteriorate and retail participation is still falling, indicating a dominant risk-averse stance.

As I mentioned on my Twitter, this risk-off sentiment is also being fueled by fears of another shutdown in the US. If the government shuts down at the end of this week, we could have another period of restricted liquidity.

This, combined with dismantling in carry trade, reduces the flow of liquidity out of Japan, resulting in a period of very restricted liquidity.

A solid recovery will require a renewal in market sentiment and greater retail participation in on-chain volume.

Written by caueconomy

[A Billion Dollar Market Cap]

Reaching a market capitalization of $1 billion in January, NEXO is the native ERC-20 utility token of the Nexo platform, offering instant crypto-backed loans, trading, and a crypto card.

[NEXO Whale Activity Increasing in January]

According to CryptoQuant’s on-chain data, whales have been actively trading the NEXO token in January: As NEXO’s spot price declined beneath $1, whales have started an accumulation pattern, expecting a good entry point.

NEXO traded between $0.90 and $1.00 in mid-January, with an uptrend structure intact, accompanied by short-term pullbacks (below EMA20). This whale-driven volume supports resilience.

[Collateral Accumulation]

Broader platform metrics show rising collateral accumulation, with collateral accumulation index at $1.52 million in mid-January, as pointed out by the CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain.

The index suggests that whales and institutions are depositing or using assets as collateral for loans rather than selling outright. This reduces spot selling pressure and signals confidence in the long-term outlook of NEXO.

[About NEXO token]

The NEXO token is the native cryptocurrency of Nexo, a leading digital assets platform for earning interest, borrowing against crypto, and trading.

NEXO’s token supply is at 1 billion units, with no additional minting possible. This creates a capped and deflationary structure, supported by periodic buyback programs that reduce available supply over time. The reduced supply of NEXO represents digital scarcity, essential for future spot price appreciation.

Written by oinonen_t

Current flow and on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin is losing momentum, as new capital inflows slow rather than capital exiting the market.

Realized Cap shows that capital remains within the system. However, both the rate of change and Z-Trend are in negative territory, reflecting a loss of acceleration in new capital inflows. This setup is typical of consolidation or late-cycle conditions, not the early stages of a fresh bull move.

At the same time, Bitcoin spot reserves on exchanges have been rising since Jun 2025, increasing available on-exchange supply. Historically, this behavior aligns with either gradual distribution or capital positioning ahead of higher volatility - but not with aggressive accumulation.

Spot demand remains weak. A persistently negative Coinbase Premium suggests that U.S.-based spot buyers, institutions included, are largely absent. As a result, recent upside attempts appear increasingly derivatives-driven, making price moves more fragile and less durable.

Taken together, these signals point to a clear conclusion:

Bitcoin is not attracting strong spot demand. The market is in a phase of redistribution and waiting.

A constructive shift would require:

• stabilization and recovery in Coinbase Premium,

• a turn in Realized Cap momentum,

• clear evidence of spot-led absorption.

Until then, upside remains vulnerable, with the risk skewed toward continued range trading or a deeper corrective move 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

Data from Binance shows that daily price momentum is positive at approximately $1,676, with a momentum of 1.93%, indicating a moderately higher closing price compared to the opening price. This reading reflects a clear attempt by the market to regain balance after a previous wave of selling pressure; however, it does not yet constitute strong bullish momentum. Instead, it suggests a quiet corrective move.

Meanwhile, the daily volatility measure stands at around $2,350, with volatility estimated at approximately 2.7%. This level of volatility is moderate relative to previous periods and indicates that the market is not experiencing sharp fluctuations or panic-driven behavior, but is instead moving within a relatively well-defined price range. A decline in volatility typically signals a reduced intensity in the struggle between buyers and sellers, which is common during phases of price base formation.

In terms of volume, current data shows daily trading activity of approximately 17,800 BTC, which is lower than the volume peaks observed during prior downtrends. A decline in volume alongside moderately positive momentum is often interpreted as a reduction in selling pressure rather than evidence of aggressive buying. In other words, prices are rising more due to the absence of sellers than from a significant influx of new liquidity.

the current readings reflect a relatively calm market environment, characterized by limited positive momentum and controlled volatility, pointing to a period of anticipation rather than an immediate breakout or distribution phase.

Written by Arab Chain

Exchange Supply Share (ESS) shows how much of XRP is held on exchanges. When ESS rises, it indicates XRP inflows to exchanges; when ESS declines, it means XRP is moving off exchanges. Historically, ESS and price have shown an inverse correlation most of the time.

February-April 2025 During this period, ESS declined steadily. The price first moved sideways and then broke out sharply to the upside. The reduction of supply on exchanges led to a delayed positive price reaction.

July-September 2025 In contrast, ESS started to rise in this period. While the price experienced high volatility, a market top formed and was followed by a downward move. This phase reflects distribution as exchange balances increased.

October 2025-A Critical Phase is particularly important. A sharp drop in ESS was followed by a strong price dump. The key point here is that the decline in ESS should not be interpreted as panic selling, but rather as a liquidity drain occurring simultaneously with the price decline.

Between November and December 2025, the lack of market volume also affected XRP. ESS remained flat at very low levels, while the price drifted downward gradually.

Current Situation at present, ESS is at the bottom zone, and the SMA(30), SMA(50), and SMA(100) are positioned above the price, indicating that the supply side has stabilized. The price is around the $1.9 level and is still responding weakly relative to ESS. Historically, this setup has tended to push prices higher with a delay.

When ESS stays at bottom levels for 2–4 weeks, price has typically shown an initial relief bounce followed by the beginning of a trend. We appear to be at the early stage of this phase; however, unlike previous instances, there is no volume confirmation. Therefore, any upside move may remain a short term reaction rather than a sustained trend.

Written by PelinayPA

On-chain data tracking large holders (1K–10K BTC, excluding exchanges and mining pools) suggests a notable shift in whale behavior following a prolonged distribution phase in late 2025. After reaching a local peak around mid-2025, total whale balances declined steadily as Bitcoin price remained elevated, indicating classic distribution into strength rather than forced selling.

The 30-day balance change metric confirms this dynamic. Throughout Q3 and early Q4, whale balances consistently posted negative monthly changes, coinciding with increased price volatility and weakening momentum. This divergence highlighted that upside price moves were increasingly driven by marginal buyers rather than sustained accumulation from large holders.

However, recent data shows a clear inflection. Both short-term (7-day) and medium-term (30-day) balance changes have turned positive, while total whale holdings have begun to stabilize and recover from their local lows. Historically, such transitions from net distribution to accumulation tend to occur during periods of price compression or post-correction phases, rather than at market tops.

From a macro on-chain perspective, the 1-year change in whale holdings remains relatively flat, suggesting that the broader cycle has not entered an aggressive accumulation regime yet. This implies the current behavior is more consistent with tactical re-positioning than long-term conviction buying.

In summary, whale activity is no longer exerting sustained sell pressure on Bitcoin supply. While this does not guarantee an immediate bullish continuation, it reduces downside risk and supports the view that the market is transitioning into a stabilization phase, where future price direction will depend on whether accumulation accelerates or stalls at current levels.

Written by CryptoZeno

Over the past 7 days, Binance has experienced a significant and broad-based capital outflow, reflected across both stablecoins and major crypto assets.

On the stablecoin side, USDT (ERC20) recorded a net outflow of approximately $2.26B, while USDC saw an additional $1.24B in net withdrawals. This represents a substantial reduction in on-exchange purchasing power, signaling that capital is being actively removed rather than waiting on the sidelines.

Simultaneously, risk assets also exited the exchange at scale. Bitcoin recorded a net outflow of around $2.14B, and Ethereum saw roughly $1.35B in net withdrawals over the same period. These figures indicate that large holders are moving core assets off Binance, most likely into self-custody or alternative platforms.

The combined effect is clear: Binance has witnessed a heavy net outflow across both “cash” (stablecoins) and “assets” (BTC & ETH) within a single week. This balance is important. While BTC and ETH outflows may reduce immediate sell pressure—often interpreted as mildly bullish—the concurrent stablecoin outflows suggest declining internal liquidity and weaker short-term buying capacity on the exchange.

From a market-structure perspective, this pattern points toward capital reallocation and platform risk management, rather than aggressive positioning for immediate upside. With fewer stablecoins available on Binance, downside moves may face thinner spot bid support, increasing sensitivity to external flows.

Overall, the data reflects a clear liquidity contraction event on Binance over the last 7 days, a condition that typically precedes increased volatility and shifts price discovery toward external demand rather than internal exchange dynamics.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin spot reserves on major exchanges have been rising since June 2025 - consistent with either ongoing distribution or capital positioning ahead of a broader market move 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

On January 23, the Bitcoin: Exchange Stablecoins Ratio on Binance recorded a sharp spike—an event that initially resembles a classic bullish signal. This ratio compares Bitcoin balances on the exchange to stablecoin reserves, which represent available buying power. Under normal conditions, a rising ratio suggests increasing risk appetite and potential upward price pressure.

However, a closer look at the underlying mechanics tells a different story.

The key driver of this move lies in the denominator of the ratio: stablecoin reserves. During this period, Binance experienced a large-scale capital outflow amounting to several billion dollars, impacting both crypto assets and stablecoins. Crucially, the contraction in stablecoin balances was large enough to significantly reduce the denominator. As a result, the ratio surged due to mathematical compression, not because of new Bitcoin inflows or increased spot demand.

In practical terms, this means the ratio rose because purchasing power was removed, not because demand expanded. This creates a structural false positive—a signal that appears bullish on charts but does not reflect healthier liquidity conditions or stronger internal demand.

From a market-structure perspective, this is an important distinction. While Bitcoin outflows can imply lower immediate sell pressure, the simultaneous depletion of stablecoin liquidity weakens Binance’s ability to absorb downside volatility. With fewer stablecoins waiting on the sidelines, potential buy-the-dip support becomes structurally thinner.

In conclusion, the recent surge in the Bitcoin: Exchange Stablecoins Ratio on Binance should be interpreted cautiously. Rather than signaling renewed accumulation, it primarily reflects liquidity drainage and balance-sheet restructuring. Without confirming stablecoin inflows or external demand, this ratio alone is not a reliable bullish indicator.

Written by CryptoOnchain

• This is the first drop of the cycle where realized losses outweigh realized gains.

• Indicator: Net Realized Profit/Loss (by Julio Moreno).

Written by _OnChain

• Only 3 times in the past three years has realized loss exceeded USD 4.5B. Some Bitcoiners are suffering.

• Indicator: Realized Profit and Loss (by Julio Moreno).

Written by _OnChain

The claim that stablecoins have nothing to do with the Bitcoin bull market is completely baseless.

The first chart shows the Exchange Stablecoins Ratio (USD).

Bitcoin: Exchange StableCoins Ratio USD

All cryptocurrencies are in the numerator, and stablecoins are in the denominator.

So when crypto prices fall and stablecoins remain on exchanges, the blue line goes down.

Right now, this indicator is at the lowest level of the current 4th halving cycle.

Throughout this cycle, there were repeated claims that the bull season had ended early—but those claims were always wrong, and the market kept going.

This time, Bitcoin has been heavily suppressed in price, which pushed the ratio to cycle lows.

That means Bitcoin is deeply undervalued and a large amount of dollar liquidity is waiting on the sidelines.

The second chart shows the ratio by token count, not price.

Bitcoin Exchange Stablecoins Ratio

In terms of token count, the ratio is even more extreme and stuck at historic lows.

Again, all cryptocurrencies are in the numerator and stablecoins in the denominator.

This means there is a massive amount of stablecoin liquidity waiting to buy.

These on-chain indicators clearly suggest that this is not the end of the cycle,

but rather a bull market structure with significant upside liquidity waiting to enter.

Written by CoinNiel

The so-called “super Wednesday” of January 28, 2026 promises to shake global markets. On one side, the crude oil inventories report in the U.S., a direct reference for WTI (CL=F), and indirectly for Brent (BZ=F). On the other, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Both events have the potential to alter expectations of inflation, liquidity, and risk. In this scenario, Bitcoin emerges as an asset sensitive to the same variables, reacting both to energy shocks and to changes in monetary policy. The correlation between oil and BTC gains relevance as a thermometer of investor confidence.

CRUDE OIL FUTURES (WTI – CL=F, MAR/26)

◾ Last price → US$ 60.73/bbl

◾ Daily variation → -0.34 (-0.72%)

◾ Today’s volume → 136,057

◾ Friday’s volume → 260,445

◾ Open Interest → 2,016,566

◾ OI variation → -21,771 contracts

BTC VS. CRUDE OIL – PERCENTUAL PERFORMANCE CORRELATION

◾ BTC Performance % → +5.08%

◾ Crude Oil Performance % → +0.01%

◾ Interpretation: moderate negative correlation in the week, reinforced by the simultaneous drop in OI in oil and BTC → signal of risk reduction before super Wednesday.

CONCLUSION

The numbers reveal a market in a waiting mode. The reduction of positions in both oil and Bitcoin suggests that investors are awaiting crucial definitions. Super Wednesday will be decisive to calibrate expectations and may redefine the correlation between energy and crypto.

Written by GugaOnChain

According to data from CryptoQuant analysts Ki Young Ju, Darkfost, and Julio Moreno, Bitcoin’s hashrate has dropped sharply in recent days. Observations show a fall from around 1.13 ZH/s to roughly 690 EH/s within two to three days—about a 30% short-term decline. The attached chart highlights a clear divergence: while price has hovered near $88,000, hashrate alone has fallen steeply.

Crucially, this move should not be immediately labeled as classic miner capitulation driven by price weakness. The primary catalyst is a severe cold wave across the United States that has strained power grids. As electricity demand surged, non-essential usage was curtailed and power costs spiked, prompting miners to temporarily reduce operations. Given the U.S. represents a large share of global hashrate—especially with major hubs concentrated in Texas—these operational decisions quickly affected network-wide metrics.

Julio Moreno’s data shows the impact in daily production. Over the past several days, CleanSpark fell from 22 BTC to 12 BTC, RIOT from 16 BTC to 3 BTC, and IREN from 18 BTC to 6 BTC. MARA, which relies heavily on solo mining and is therefore more volatile, dropped from 45 BTC to just 7 BTC.

Viewed on a medium-term basis, miner-specific on-chain data shows uneven depth of impact. MARA displays a clear deviation below its monthly average, while CleanSpark, RIOT, and IREN show sharp short-term declines but limited evidence of structural damage to production capacity. This points to temporary, region- and power-driven adjustments rather than uniform industry deterioration.

Near term, block intervals have lengthened and the next difficulty adjustment is expected around −4%. Key checks ahead are hashrate recovery speed, post-adjustment stability, miner exchange inflows, and whether the price-hashrate gap closes—factors that will determine whether this shock proves temporary or structural.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

After reaching a new all-time high of $1.76B on July 17 on Binance, XRP open interest began to decline sharply.

This contraction in the derivatives market was accompanied by a significant price correction, with XRP falling from $3.55 to $1.83, representing a drawdown of nearly 50%.

As positions were liquidated or voluntarily closed, open interest on Binance continued to decrease, recently dropping below the $500M threshold.

This level had now persisted since the exceptional liquidation event that occurred on October 10.

Overall, XRP open interest has declined by nearly 60%, highlighting a substantial destruction of liquidity in the derivatives market especially since the 10/10 event. It is also important to note that the decline in XRP’s price mechanically weighs on open interest, amplifying the contraction as prices move lower.

Taking a step back, these deleveraging phases play a crucial role.

They help flush out excess leverage built up in the market and restore a healthier market structure. Such periods are highlighted when XRP open interest on Binance falls below its semi-annual average.

Historically, these cleanup phases have often been followed by a bullish recovery, once investor interest gradually returns to the derivatives market.

Written by Darkfost

📰 Daily Market Update:

Over the past two weeks, Ethereum price action has been strongly influenced by what’s happening inside the derivatives market, especially on Binance, the largest crypto exchange by trading volume.

📊 ETH: Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume / OI [USD] 24H

📉 The first chart clearly shows a sharp decline in Ethereum derivatives Open Interest on Binance.

📉 Open Interest dropped aggressively from around $8 billion to nearly $6.4 billion in less than two weeks, which is a very significant contraction in leverage.

📉 This drop in OI happened at the same time Ethereum price was falling, with ETH currently trading below the $3,000 level.

📈 What is interesting here is that CVD moved higher while Open Interest was declining.

This behavior suggests that the majority of the OI reduction came from short positions being closed.

📊 ETH: Binance Liquidation Delta

The liquidation delta chart shows where forced liquidations have taken place at different price levels.

💥 The chart highlights a major short liquidation event above the $3,300 level on Binance.

📉 This event was actually the first warning signal that Ethereum could start a reversal, since once late shorts are wiped out, upside momentum usually weakens.

🗺️ ETH Liquidation Heatmap

The liquidation heatmap shows another important side of the story.

📉 During Ethereum’s decline over the last two weeks, large liquidation clusters of late buyers (longs) were completely destroyed.

As price moved lower, these highly leveraged long positions were forced to close, adding more selling pressure into the move.

🧠 Final Thoughts

Tracking derivatives metrics like OI, CVD, and liquidation maps offers real-time insight into trader behavior, providing a clearer view of the factors driving price action, especially in the short to medium term.

Written by Amr Taha

While ApeCoin (APE) price action continues its severe downward spiral, reaching a new All-Time Low (ATL) of $0.18, on-chain data reveals a significant anomaly suggesting potential investor capitulation.

On-Chain & Technical Analysis

Analyzing the weekly Exchange Netflow for altcoins on Binance highlights a drastic spike for APE. Precisely as the token lost critical support levels to touch $0.18, the Exchange Netflow registered a massive positive value of $10.2 million. This figure represents the highest weekly inflow for APE on Binance in the recorded history of this chart.

Market Implications

A surge in Exchange Inflow (positive Netflow) is typically a bearish signal, indicating that investors are moving assets from private wallets to exchanges, likely to liquidate positions.

Occurring at a price floor, this record-breaking inflow suggests two scenarios:

Final Capitulation: Long-term holders or “bag holders” may be finally surrendering to the bearish trend, exiting the market at a loss.

Supply Shock: An influx of $10.2M in selling pressure requires substantial buy-side liquidity to be absorbed. Without a corresponding spike in demand, this supply shock could suppress any potential rebound or drive prices into deeper price discovery.

Conclusion

The correlation between APE hitting its ATL and this historic inflow spike indicates extreme bearish sentiment. Traders should exercise caution, as the market is currently digesting a significant supply shock.

Written by CryptoOnchain

On Bitcoin, one indicator of the network’s “health” is the hashrate, which reflects the level of mining activity.

When it drops sharply, it means miners are reducing their activity by voluntarily shutting down machines.

That’s exactly what we’re seeing today.

The hashrate has fallen from 1.133 ZH/s to 690 EH/s in just two days.

Most of the time, this kind of move is caused by periods of voluntary miner capitulation, but today the reason appears to be very different.

It seems that a large number of ASICs have been shut down during this period, which coincides with the severe ice storm currently hitting the United States, a country that concentrates around **one third of the total hashrate.

The cold is also affecting Texas, where major mining players such as MARA or Foundry Digital are mainly located.

For example, Mara’s hashrate has been cut by a factor of 4 over the past three days compared to its monthly average.

Extreme cold leads to power grid disruptions, the need to cut non-essential loads, and electricity costs also spike.

As a result, the time between blocks will continue to increase, and mining difficulty should drop sharply,

The next difficulty adjustment is already estimated to be down by around -4.54%.

This period of stress could even trigger some BTC selling if the storm were to persist, as miners may still need to cover fixed operating costs while waiting for conditions to normalize.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin’s latest drawdown has revived a key question for institutional desks: is this miner capitulation, whale dumping, or something more nuanced?

The flow data points to a controlled, early-bear digestion rather than a disorderly unwind.

Miners first. The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) spiked to +2–3 several times at the $110k–$120k highs, indicating miners aggressively monetised inventory at those levels. Since Q4, MPI has compressed around zero and recently printed near -1.5, indicating miners are now selling less than their 1-year average. The Miner Netflow Total chart tells the same story: heavy outflows through mid-2025, then much smaller, near-zero prints. Miners have already supplied the market; they are not the marginal forced seller here.

On the venue side, Exchange Reserve - All Exchanges continues to grind lower, from ~2.95M BTC to ~2.73M BTC. Structural spot inventory on exchanges remains tight, even after the correction. Exchange netflows have shifted from persistent outflows to small, occasional inflows, suggesting some re-risking and hedging, but not a broad rush to exit.

Finally, the Exchange Whale Ratio sits toward the upper end of its recent 0.4–0.6 range. Whales dominate a modest inflow stream, but absolute deposits are well below prior spike highs, implying tactical, price-sensitive distribution rather than all-in capitulation.

Net result: no single distressed cohort is driving this leg lower. Previously de-risked miners and opportunistic whales are selling into rallies against lean exchange inventories. That mix argues for choppy, supply-heavy bounces rather than a miner-led air pocket, classic early-bear behaviour.

Written by Novaque Research

The Bitcoin Spot ETF market witnessed a significant downturn last week, recording a total net outflow exceeding $1 billion. As illustrated in the weekly netflow chart, this marks the most substantial weekly exit of capital since November 24th, signaling a potential cooling in short-term institutional appetite.

A breakdown of the data reveals that the selling pressure was broad-based but led by major players. According to the fund-specific metrics (measured in thousands of dollars), Fidelity's FBTC saw the largest withdrawal, shedding approximately $542.65M, followed closely by BlackRock's IBIT with an outflow of $380.77M. Even Grayscale's GBTC, typically a source of outflows, contributed a smaller $12.35M to the total.

This synchronized selling across top issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity is noteworthy. While ETF flows are often lagging indicators of price action, such a sharp reversal after weeks of mixed activity suggests that institutional investors may be de-risking in response to macroeconomic uncertainty or profit-taking at current price levels. Traders should monitor if this trend persists into the coming week, as sustained outflows could exert further bearish pressure on Bitcoin's spot price.

Written by CryptoOnchain