Current flow and on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin is losing momentum, as new capital inflows slow rather than capital exiting the market.
Realized Cap shows that capital remains within the system. However, both the rate of change and Z-Trend are in negative territory, reflecting a loss of acceleration in new capital inflows. This setup is typical of consolidation or late-cycle conditions, not the early stages of a fresh bull move.
At the same time, Bitcoin spot reserves on exchanges have been rising since Jun 2025, increasing available on-exchange supply. Historically, this behavior aligns with either gradual distribution or capital positioning ahead of higher volatility - but not with aggressive accumulation.
Spot demand remains weak. A persistently negative Coinbase Premium suggests that U.S.-based spot buyers, institutions included, are largely absent. As a result, recent upside attempts appear increasingly derivatives-driven, making price moves more fragile and less durable.
Taken together, these signals point to a clear conclusion:
Bitcoin is not attracting strong spot demand. The market is in a phase of redistribution and waiting.
A constructive shift would require:
• stabilization and recovery in Coinbase Premium,
• a turn in Realized Cap momentum,
• clear evidence of spot-led absorption.
Until then, upside remains vulnerable, with the risk skewed toward continued range trading or a deeper corrective move 🧸 DYOR
Written by TeddyVision
