Trisha_Saha

#MAGIC

The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe. It has reached the lower boundary and is heading towards breaking above it, with a retest of the upper boundary expected.

We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator, which has reached near the lower boundary, and an upward rebound is expected.

There is a key support zone in green at 0.0950. The price has bounced from this level multiple times and is expected to bounce again.

We have a trend towards stability above the 100-period moving average, as we are moving close to it, which supports the upward movement.

Entry price: 0.0961
First target: 0.0978
Second target: 0.1005
Third target: 0.1039

Don't forget a simple principle: money management.

Place your stop-loss below the support zone in green.

For any questions, please leave a comment.

Thank you.

$MAGIC

NOT/USDT on the 4-hour chart has recently broken its long-term descending trendline with strong volume confirmation. After the breakout, price sharply retested the broken trendline and is now stabilizing near the confluence of the EMA and Ichimoku cloud support. The retest wick shows buyers defending the structure, suggesting that the market is shifting from a downtrend to a potential accumulation or early bullish phase. As long as price holds above the 0.000586 zone, momentum remains positive toward the upper resistance near 0.000834. The rising volume spike at the breakout and the clean retest indicate healthy demand absorption. However, a clean 4H candle close back below 0.000535 would invalidate the setup and expose the previous low again. Overall, the chart structure favors continuation to the upside if the retest holds, signaling early trend reversal confirmation.

$NOT

As of December 9, I would like to share Bitcoin’s bullish scenario.
Below are the main factors supporting the current rebound.

- Detailed Technical Basis

1) Reaching the completion zone of the 1.902 DEEP CRAB pattern
In the Deep Crab pattern, the 1.618 or 1.902 levels are considered reversal zones,
and when the BC extension and XA ratio converge simultaneously, a strong retracement structure is formed.
This aligns with the typical pattern conditions in which the market attempts a meaningful rebound.

2) Overlap of key Fibonacci 0.618 ~ 0.886 retracement zones
The 0.618 ~ 0.886 levels, which serve as the basis for the mid-term trend, are currently overlapping near the price,
forming a strong buy-side defense zone.
This area has acted as a pivot for directional reversals multiple times in the past,
and it now carries sufficient probabilistic context for a similar reaction to occur again.

3) Detection of initial signals of market structure shift
Even as the price continues to decline, bearish momentum is slowing,
and a classic absorption pattern seen in oversold conditions is appearing in the volume structure.
This is not yet a confirmed reversal signal but can be interpreted as an early movement preparing for a rebound.

- Strategy and Target

Based on these factors, I have set the average target zone for this rebound at 92,450 USDT.
If upward movement unfolds, I will reassess whether to continue holding at that level.

I plan to gradually increase long positions based on the technical conditions described above.
Further updates to position management will follow depending on market movement and indicator changes.

Thank you for reading.

$BTC

Why Does Ethereum Need a Weekly Close Above $3,100?

Ethereum is currently trading around $3,035, while the SMA365 sits near $3,100. A weekly close above this level would give ETH investors some breathing room. If ETH can secure a close above the SMA365, we could expect a relief rally toward $3,689, especially considering the uninterrupted decline since the $4,755 top.

On the other hand, the $2,500 zone remains a critical support.

Looking at ETH’s recent price action, this level aligns with a high-volume node on the FRVP, making it a key area of interest. Staying above it supports the bullish scenario — but the fact that ETH hasn’t been able to shift this “high-volume settlement zone” upward for months means it also acts like a magnet.

The white zone on the chart is a strong candidate for the next YTS (New High-Volume Settlement). For ETH to rebuild positive momentum, it needs to trade and settle between $3,350 – $3,450 for a while. In other words, Ethereum must push this liquidity cluster upward by roughly $850–900 (around 38%) — a classic characteristic of bull markets.

In conclusion: purely from a technical perspective, the weekly close at $3,100 is critical.
Above it, the path opens toward $3,600 — below it, there is room to revisit $2,500.

Thank you for reading. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider sharing 🙏

$ETH

#PHA is moving inside a falling wedge pattern on the 12H timeframe. Volume has spiked, which is a positive sign. In case of a breakout above the wedge resistance and the 12H SMA50, the potential targets are:

🎯 $0.0537
🎯 $0.0628
🎯 $0.0702
🎯 $0.0776
🎯 $0.0881
🎯 $0.1014

⚠️ Always remember to use a tight stop-loss and maintain proper risk management

$PHA

SHIB continues to move inside a clear descending channel that has been respected since mid October. Price is once again approaching the mid zone of the channel while holding above a short term support created by recent higher lows.

The structure is now offering two possible scenarios.

Bullish idea
A reclaim of the short term trendline resistance can trigger a recovery toward the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Important focus points:
• Price stability above the short term support
• Breakout of the diagonal resistance
• Room toward the liquidity cluster at 0.00000913
• A full channel rotation opens the path to 0.00001035

Bearish idea
Failure to hold the mid support area invites continuation inside the channel.
What to watch:
• Loss of the support zone
• Return toward 0.00000827 then 0.00000779
• Deeper liquidity around 0.00000755 at the channel bottom

This level is an important pivot inside the overall channel. SHIB is preparing for a directional decision and the next breakout or rejection should define the coming weeks.

$SHIB

Here is an objective summary of the price action for December 7, 2025, on XRP/USDT, based exclusively on institutional analysis (ICT).

1. Context: Accumulation and Liquidity Engineering

During the first part of the day, price evolved within a consolidation profile. This phase allowed for "Liquidity Engineering," building up stop orders below relative lows (Sell Side Liquidity) and above relative highs (Buy Side Liquidity).

2. The Manipulation (Judas Swing / SSL Raid)

Mid-afternoon volatility kicked in:

SSL Sweep: The market violently took out the 2.00 psychological support and the previous Major Swing Low (1.9950).

Turtle Soup: This run below the low failed to induce bearish continuation. Instead, it served to trigger early buyers' Stop Losses and trap breakout traders.

Reaction: Price reacted instantly, leaving a long lower wick, indicating heavy absorption of sell orders by smart money (Accumulation).

3. Expansion and Displacement

Following the liquidity grab, a bullish impulse move triggered, characterized by strong Displacement:

The up-close candles were large with little to no retracement, signaling clear institutional sponsorship.

Invalidation of Supply: Price sliced through the bearish OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) of the previous dealing range with zero rejection. This indicates the Bears have lost control.

4. Market Structure Shift (MSS)

The candle closes (specifically on the H1 timeframe) validated a trend reversal:

BOS/MSS: By closing above significant recent highs (notably 2.0723), the market confirmed a bullish Market Structure Shift.

Targeting Buy Side Liquidity (BSL): Price was drawn as a magnet toward the External Range Liquidity sitting above the previous range highs.

Technical Conclusion

The day can be summarized by a classic ICT "Purge & Revert" cycle:

Sweep of internal and external liquidity (below 1.9950).

Range reintegration.

Expansion toward external liquidity (above 2.0723).

The Daily Bias has flipped from neutral/bearish to bullish following the strong H1 close, suggesting the current "Draw on Liquidity" is the next major pool around the 2.10 level.

$XRP

HBAR continues to move within a descending channel on the higher time frame, with price now reacting near the lower third of the structure. The current positioning suggests that the next directional move will likely be decided within this zone.

Key points from the chart

Descending Channel Structure
• Price has respected both channel boundaries since early October.
• Each touch of the lower boundary has produced a short term rebound.
• Recent candles show slowing bearish momentum near the same zone.

Local Support Zone
• HBAR is testing a demand area that previously acted as a launch point.
• Reaction from this zone determines whether the market forms a new higher low.

Potential Bullish Scenario
• If HBAR maintains support, price may begin moving toward the middle band of the descending channel.
• A confirmed break above the internal trendline could open the path toward the next resistance levels near 0.152 and 0.204.

Potential Bearish Scenario
• A breakdown from the support region exposes the lower channel boundary.
• Failure to hold this structure may extend the decline toward deeper levels around 0.110 and possibly 0.079.

What to watch
• Strength or weakness around the current support zone.
• Reaction to the internal trendline.
• Volume confirmation on any breakout attempts.

Market stance
Neutral until the channel boundary or the resistance line is decisively broken.

$HBAR

Market Context

BTC remains inside a bearish weekly inside bar, defined by 95,950 as the upper boundary and 80,524 as the lower boundary. Until price closes beyond either side, the higher-timeframe structure remains unchanged.
Friday’s low was liquidated, triggering a clean internal rally, but all movement is still contained within the broader weekly bracket.

Technical Frame (CORE5 Logic)

MSM: The sweep of Friday’s low expanded the internal range, but the broader regime remains bearish until 92,716.42 breaks.
VFA: The reaction formed at a negative two-channel volume confluence, a typical exhaustion zone where responsive buyers step in.
OFD: Order flow thinned immediately after the sweep, signaling a low-liquidity reversal rather than sustained demand.
PEM: The internal long was valid and the stop-to-breakeven logic holds, but conviction remains tactical until weekly structure confirms.

The key internal level is 92,716.42.
A clean break above it would mark the first meaningful bullish structural shift since the weekly inside bar formed.

Fundamental Context

Next week’s macro calendar—CPI, PPI, Retail Sales—anchors the landscape.
Weekly bias depends on how BTC behaves around the internal high as macro volatility increases.
Until then, internal rallies remain part of the broader weekly compression.

CORE5 Rule of the Day

Structure sets the truth. Emotion sets the trap.

Summary Insight

BTC remains in controlled weekly compression.
Internal rallies gain meaning only if structure confirms.
92,716.42 is the hinge.

—Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.

$BTC

Price swept the lows and is now stabilizing below structure, showing early signs of seller exhaustion.
If buyers reclaim momentum, this becomes a clean continuation-reversal long setup.

• Direction: Long
• Entry Zone: 132.40 – 133.00
• Stop Loss: 127.99
• Target: 156.13
• R/R: High-quality expansion setup if price pushes back above the EMAs

Bias remains bullish as long as price holds above the recent liquidity sweep and does not break back below 128.

Watching for a clean break and close above the short-term EMA cluster to confirm the move.

$SOL

Hey guys, Bitcoin on the 4H is setting up what looks like a textbook distribution pattern, and I'm leaning bearish here despite the recent bounce off $87,688.

Price is currently trading at $91,332, sitting in a really uncomfortable middle zone. We're above the short-term moving averages (EMA20 at $90,193 and EMA50 at $90,276), which on the surface looks bullish. But here's the problem: we're still firmly rejected below the EMA200 at $93,179, and that level's been acting as a ceiling for multiple sessions now. Every time we push toward $92,900-$93,200, sellers step in hard. That's your primary supply zone, and it's reinforced by the Bollinger Band upper limit at $92,918.

The indicator stack is where things get really interesting. ADX is screaming at 77.1, that's extreme trend strength, folks. But which trend? The MACD is still bearish at -286.85 versus signal at -284.68, telling us the momentum remains to the downside despite this bounce. More importantly, check out the Stochastic at 96.4, that's massively overbought on the 4H timeframe. When you see Stochastic that extended, you're usually near a local top, not the beginning of a rally.

Here's where it gets spicy: the MFI is sitting at just 22.9. Let that sink in. Price is pushing higher, Stochastic is overbought, but money flow is absolutely anemic. That's classic divergence, price going up on declining participation. Smart money's distributing into strength while retail's buying the breakout. I've seen this movie before, and it doesn't end well for late buyers.

Volume analysis supports the bearish thesis. We're running 30% above average at $26,852, which confirms active participation. But notice the wick structure: 18.4% lower wick shows buyers stepped in aggressively, yet we've got a 5.6% upper wick showing sellers immediately absorbed that pressure. In a healthy uptrend, you want to see small upper wicks and strong closes. This candle structure screams exhaustion.

From a structural perspective, we've formed a higher low (bullish), but we haven't confirmed a higher high yet (neutral to bearish). That makes this a potential bear flag rather than a reversal pattern. The Bollinger Bands are telling a similar story, we're trading just above the middle band at $90,391, but we haven't been able to sustain any momentum toward the upper band. That middle band is now acting as resistance rather than support, which is a bearish flip.

Support levels to watch: immediate support sits at the HMA55 around $90,540, then the EMA20 at $90,193. If those break, we're looking at a quick move back to the lower Bollinger Band at $87,864, which aligns with today's low of $87,688. That zone saw significant buying interest earlier, so it should provide a bounce, but if it fails, we could see acceleration toward the $86,200-$85,500 range where weekly support clusters.

Resistance is clearly defined: $92,918 (Bollinger upper), $93,179 (EMA200), and $93,500 (psychological). Any sustained move above $93,200 would invalidate this bearish setup and suggest we're heading for price discovery toward the $95,000 zone. But with current momentum and indicator readings, I'm assigning less than 30% probability to that scenario.

Trading setup: I'm looking at short entries in the $89,800-$90,500 range if we get a lower high formation on the 1H chart. Stop loss goes above $92,500 to give room for a false breakout. Targets are $87,800 (TP1), $86,200 (TP2), and $85,000 (TP3) for the aggressive traders. Risk/reward on this is roughly 1:2.5 to first target, which is acceptable given the confluence of bearish signals.

The internal market state shows bullish bias but only 38.6% directional confidence, that's essentially a coin flip, and when the algos are this uncertain, I fade the recent move. The 6-2 bull-bear stack sounds bullish until you realize that's only 75% agreement, and with ADX this high, we need near-unanimous confirmation for continuation.

Bottom line: this looks like a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend rather than the start of a new leg up. The combination of overbought Stochastic, weak money flow, bearish MACD, and resistance cluster overhead tilts the probabilities toward downside resolution. I'm giving this a 68% confidence bearish call, not slam-dunk territory, but enough edge to take a position with proper risk management.

What are you guys seeing here? Are you fading this bounce or waiting for confirmation above $93,200?

$BTC

To date, the market continues to move exactly according to the scenario that I outlined in the last review. On Monday and Tuesday, the probability of a flat with sales attempts prevails, but from the middle of the week I expect the bullish trend to continue as part of a pullback on the annual candle and seasonal growth with an attempt to consolidate in the range of 3250-3500 ETH.
This week, NFP and SHELL reached medium-term supports, which I am now taking into account to work alongside TURTLE NTRN MITO VIC ENSO HOOK BMT. At the moment, 50% of tokens are already in circulation with further smooth unlocking, which will put minimal pressure on the price. In the future, the area for reliable scalping will shift slightly next year. For this instrument, there are long-term technical signals for growth up to 0.35-45, that is, 10X+. However, with the current bear market, we can still expect an attempt to retest the 0.060-75 range with a further pullback and resumption of growth in a new annual candle, which can already bring up to 150% profit. The intermediate resistance is the 0.05 level. If the daily or weekly candle opens higher, an active continuation of growth is likely. The opening of the second half of the month above this level will also be a signal for support.

$NFP

By analysing the 4H BTCUSDT chart, we can see that a fall into the FVG and dropping all the way too $87700, it has reacted positively and is now being traded at $91700!
We shall see if BTC manages to go through the daily FVG, which is the $96900-$98000 zone. If BTC goes over than zone, another run to over $100K is possible!
This analysis will be updated!

$BTC

Hello friends

Considering the decline I had, you can see that the price has been supported in our support area and the price has grown well.

Now, given the good growth we had, we have a high and low, which is a sign of the entry of sellers, and this means that the price will correct to the specified areas, and from there we can again expect the price to grow to the specified targets.

This analysis is technically reviewed and is not a buy or sell recommendation, so please follow risk and capital management.

*Trade safely with us*

$HEMI

After weeks of controlled bleed, the price is now sitting directly on a major historical demand zone, the same region that previously launched the last impulsive move. This time, however, the story underneath the candles is shifting.

Volume is quietly increasing on the lows.
Momentum indicators are printing multiple bullish divergences.
And the selling pressure that dominated the entire downtrend is clearly losing strength.

If this area holds, the next key step is simple: break back into the previous range.
A clean reclaim above the local structure would confirm that this isn’t just a bounce, it’s the start of a trend reversal.

Lose this zone, and we extend the downtrend.
Hold it, and Hemi has room to move.

What’s your bias here, early reversal forming, or just another relief pop before lower?

$HEMI

Price has completed a textbook bullish market structure shift (MSS) after sweeping significant sell‑side liquidity below the $3,069 level. Following the displacement, price is now in a pullback phase, retesting the newly formed support zone and Fair Value Gap (FVG). This is a high‑quality ICT long setup for continuation toward the recent swing highs.

• Direction: Long
• Entry Zone: 3,135 – 3,145 (retest of FVG support & previous resistance turned support)
• Stop Loss: 3,049 (below the swept low and bullish order block)
• Target: 3,400 (previous high + equal legs projection / HTF liquidity pool)

• R/R: High‑quality expansion setup – risk is well‑defined below the liquidity sweep, reward offers a clear path to the next major liquidity zone.

Key ICT/SMC Observations:

Clear sell‑side liquidity sweep below $3,069 followed by a strong displacement candle.

Bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS) confirmed with a higher high and higher low.

Price is now retracing into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) created during the initial rally, offering a premium entry.

The 3,135–3,145 zone now acts as a support confluence (FVG + previous resistance).

Bias remains bullish above the swept low. A reaction from the 3,135–3,145 support zone will signal buyers are in control, targeting the 3,400 liquidity area for the next leg up.

Trade at your own risk. Manage size and always use a stop.

$ETH

MET Update:

Metora ranging since November 25th, still unable to reclaim 0.343, which remains the key resistance.

Above that, the next important level is 0.368, which lines up with the mean threshold of the bearish Order Block. A move into that zone would make sense once 0.343 is reclaimed.

Beyond that, the real liquidity sits higher — around 0.398, which likely becomes the magnet once those lower levels get cleared.

So the ideal flow looks like:

Reclaim 0.343 → Push into 0.368 (MT of bearish OB) → Then target liquidity above 0.398

$MET

Hello friends

As you can see, after the resistance level we set was broken, the price has grown well, and now with this bullish trend, there is a sign of sellers entering, and there is a possibility of price correction, and the price can grow again from these areas and move to our targets.

This analysis is technically reviewed and is not a buy or sell recommendation, so please follow risk and capital management.

*Trade safely with us*

$SUI

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ETH is consolidating at a critical decision zone around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ($3,040) on the daily timeframe. The market shows mixed signals with short-term bullish momentum (1H MACD positive) conflicting with medium-term bearish structure (4H below key MAs). Derivatives data indicates deleveraging with declining Open Interest (-14% from peak) and neutral funding rates. Fear & Greed Index at 22 (Fear) suggests cautious market sentiment, though ETH is outperforming BTC across all recent timeframes.

BIAS: NEUTRAL with slight BULLISH short-term / BEARISH medium-term

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🔴 KEY RESISTANCE ZONES (Short Targets)

R1: $3,043 - $3,108 | 4H Bearish OB + FVG cluster | HIGH
R2: $3,144 - $3,235 | Daily OB + S/R (5 bounces) + Fib 23.6% | CRITICAL
R3: $3,255 - $3,398 | Daily FVG + OB | MEDIUM
R4: $3,519 - $3,580 | Daily FVG | MEDIUM

🟢 KEY SUPPORT ZONES (Long Targets)

S1: $2,970 - $3,028 | Daily OB + Daily FVG + 4H FVG + POC | CRITICAL
S2: $2,913 - $2,920 | Fib 61.8% Daily | HIGH
S3: $2,813 - $2,918 | 4H OB + FVG + VAL | HIGH
S4: $2,713 - $2,722 | Multi-TF S/R + Fib 100% | MEDIUM

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TECHNICAL INDICATORS SUMMARY

Momentum (RSI 14):
• 1H: 46.00 | 4H: 46.92 | 1D: 46.53
• All neutral - room to move in either direction

MACD:
• 1H: Histogram +3.00 (bullish)
• 4H: Histogram -16.68 (bearish)
• 1D: Histogram +51.65 (bullish momentum building)

MFI:
• 4H at 23.77 - approaching OVERSOLD zone
• Potential bounce signal

Stochastic:
• 1H: 50/43 (neutral, %K > %D bullish)
• 4H: 43/43 (neutral)
• 1D: 76/82 (overbought zone, %K < %D bearish)

ADX (Trend Strength):
• 1H: 16 (no trend)
• 4H: 21 (weak trend)
• 1D: 36 (moderate trend)

Moving Averages vs Price ($3,043):
• Below EMA20 on 4H ($3,061) and 1D ($3,067) - resistance
• Below EMA50 on 1H ($3,060) - immediate resistance
• Below SMA50 on 4H ($3,015) - support
• Well below EMA200 on 4H ($3,349) - major resistance

Bollinger Bands:
• 4H: Price in lower half (bearish bias)
• 1D: Price above middle band (recovery in progress)

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VOLUME PROFILE

POC (Point of Control): $3,018 - $3,034
Price is currently AT the POC level - equilibrium zone

Value Area: $2,833 (VAL) - $3,204 (VAH)
Price inside Value Area = mean-reversion environment

High Volume Nodes (Support/Resistance):
• $3,034 - Strongest (2.87x avg volume)
• $3,013 - Strong (2.67x avg)
• $3,183 - Resistance (1.71x avg)
• $2,822 - Support (1.51x avg)

Low Volume Nodes (Fast moves expected):
• Below $2,700 - Very low liquidity
• Above $3,600 - Very low liquidity

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DERIVATIVES DATA

Open Interest: $1.66B (-14% from peak) - Bearish (deleveraging)
Funding Rate: +0.00018% - Neutral
L/S Ratio: 1.85 - Moderately Bullish
Top Traders L/S: 1.85 - Aligned with retail
Taker Buy/Sell: 1.05 - Slight buy pressure
Loan Ratio: 17.68 (declining) - Deleveraging

Interpretation:
Market is in consolidation with reduced speculative activity. Declining OI and loan ratio suggest traders are de-risking. Neutral funding rates indicate no overcrowding on either side. L/S ratio at 1.85 shows moderate long bias but well below recent extremes (was 4.0+).

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CANDLESTICK PATTERNS

Recent Bullish Signals:
✅ Hammer (1H) - Dec 7 at $3,036 - Strong
✅ Hammer (4H) - Dec 6 at $3,036 - Strong
✅ Bullish Harami (1H) - Dec 6 at $3,038

Recent Bearish Signals:
⚠️ Bearish Engulfing (4H) - Dec 6 at $3,029
⚠️ Hanging Man (1H) - Dec 6 at $3,024
⚠️ Shooting Star (1H) - Dec 5 at $3,172 (preceded drop)

Pattern Bias: Slightly Bullish with HIGH Indecision
• 32 bullish vs 22 bearish signals
• 70 indecision patterns (Doji/Spinning Top)
• Hammer patterns suggest support forming at $3,036

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MARKET CONTEXT

Fear & Greed Index: 22 (Fear)
• Recovering from Extreme Fear (10-15 two weeks ago)
• 7-day range: 16-27
• Contrarian signal: Fear = potential buying opportunity

BTC Dominance: 58.55% (-0.09%)
• Near cycle highs but showing slight decline
• Early sign of rotation to alts

ETH vs BTC Performance:
• 1H: ETH +0.37% vs BTC +0.31% ✅
• 24H: ETH +0.60% vs BTC +0.10% ✅
• 7D: ETH +1.63% vs BTC -1.53% ✅
• 30D: ETH -8.35% vs BTC -11.67% ✅
ETH outperforming BTC across ALL recent timeframes - bullish for ETH

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FIBONACCI LEVELS

Daily (Bearish Retracement):
Swing: $2,718 - $3,239
• 23.6%: $3,116 (resistance)
• 38.2%: $3,040 ← CURRENT LEVEL
• 50.0%: $2,978 (support target)
• 61.8%: $2,917 (golden ratio support)

4H (Bullish Retracement):
Swing: $2,980 - $3,224
• 23.6%: $3,037 ← CURRENT LEVEL
• 38.2%: $3,073 (resistance)
• 50.0%: $3,102 (resistance)

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TRADING SCENARIOS

📈 SCENARIO 1: BULLISH (Probability: 45%)
Trigger: Break and hold above $3,073 (Fib 38.2% on 4H)
Targets: $3,108 → $3,144 → $3,235
Stop Loss: Below $2,970
Confirmation: 4H close above EMA20, increasing volume

📉 SCENARIO 2: BEARISH (Probability: 40%)
Trigger: Break below $2,970 (Daily OB)
Targets: $2,917 (Fib 61.8%) → $2,833 (VAL) → $2,718
Stop Loss: Above $3,073
Confirmation: Increasing OI with price decline, funding going negative

📊 SCENARIO 3: RANGE (Probability: 15%)
Range: $2,970 - $3,108
Strategy: Buy at S1, sell at R1
Duration: Until clear breakout with volume

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⚠️ KEY RISK FACTORS

1. BTC correlation - Any BTC dump will drag ETH down regardless of ETH-specific signals
2. Low liquidity zones below $2,700 - Flash crash risk if support breaks
3. Fear & Greed still in Fear territory - Market vulnerable to negative catalysts
4. Declining OI - Reduced speculative interest may limit upside momentum
5. Price trapped between key Fibonacci levels - Choppy action likely

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CONCLUSION

ETH is at a critical inflection point at the 38.2% Fibonacci level with strong support confluence at $2,970-$3,028 (POC + Daily OB + FVG). Short-term momentum is turning bullish (Hammer patterns, 1H MACD), but medium-term structure remains bearish (below key MAs on 4H/1D).

The derivatives market shows healthy deleveraging with no extreme positioning - ideal conditions for a new trend to emerge. ETH's outperformance vs BTC and Fear & Greed recovery from Extreme Fear levels provide a constructive backdrop.

Watch for: Break above $3,073 for bullish confirmation OR break below $2,970 for bearish continuation.

Not financial advice. DYOR.

$ETH