November seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data preview: Gold under short-term pressure, primarily short on rebounds

At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the market is focusing on the U.S. November seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data, which will be officially released. This data has been delayed due to a previous government shutdown, and its results will directly reshape the Federal Reserve's policy expectations and the trends of major assets. Combining leading indicators and market logic, this month’s non-farm data is likely to exceed expectations, and gold will face significant bearish pressure in the short term.

From the data clues, October non-farm payroll data has been revised up from 12,000 to 36,000, coupled with the fading of temporary disruptive factors such as hurricanes and strikes, the November labor market is expected to show a strong rebound. Although some institutions predict an increase in employment of about 50,000, historically, the fading of disruptive factors is often accompanied by a recovery in employment data, and there is strong recruitment demand in industries such as healthcare and leisure hotels, further supporting the possibility of non-farm data exceeding expectations.

The linkage logic between non-farm data and gold is clear: exceeding expectations in employment numbers indicates an improving U.S. economic environment, which will strengthen market expectations for high interest rates, pushing the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields upward, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, putting pressure on gold prices. Currently, gold is supported by medium to long-term interest rate cut expectations and central bank gold purchases, but under the short-term data impact, bearish sentiment is likely to dominate the market.

It is recommended to seize short-selling opportunities on rebounds: when gold prices rebound to the 4300-4310 range, short positions can be established, with a target looking towards the 4260-4240 area.

It should be noted that market volatility may increase after the data release, and strict stop-loss measures should be set to guard against the risk of a pullback caused by unexpected variables such as a higher-than-expected unemployment rate. The core of the operation is to rely on data logic, focus on short-term volatility opportunities, while being alert to the game between medium to long-term trends and short-term shocks.