Prospective CPI Tonight: Inflation Eases Amid Upward Revision Expectations, Key Points for Dual Betting and Risk Control in the Gold Market

Why is the market indifferent to this CPI report?

The market's expectation of an annual rate of 3.1% sharply contrasts with the rhetoric of easing inflation, with the core issue stemming from the inherent flaws in this CPI data and the deep switch in the Federal Reserve's policy logic, which can be summarized into three key factors:

1. Doubts about data quality, significant discount on credibility

Due to the record government shutdown in the U.S. from October to November, the October CPI data is permanently missing due to interrupted surveys and cannot be retroactively collected. This report will completely lack month-on-month data and can only present incomplete year-on-year indicators. At the same time, the shutdown has led to November's data collection relying on non-survey alternative sources, with Goldman Sachs warning that biases in data collection during the latter half of the holiday sales season could drag core CPI down by 0.15 percentage points, significantly weakening statistical accuracy and reference value.

2. Shift in Federal Reserve policy focus, diminishing importance of CPI

The core contradiction of the Federal Reserve has shifted from "fighting inflation" to "stabilizing employment". Signs of a weak job market have become a key anchor for policy adjustments, with preventive interest rate cuts aimed at avoiding economic stall risks. In the balance between "full employment" and "price stability", the trend of moderate inflation retreat has created room for easing. Unless CPI shows an extreme deviation far exceeding expectations, it is difficult to change the current policy trajectory, naturally reducing the guiding role of data for the market.

3. Policy expectations "jumping the gun", personnel changes dominate pricing

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will step down in May next year, and the market is focused on the dynamics of his successor—popular candidate Kevin Hassett has a higher tolerance for inflation, and the Trump administration has clearly indicated a tendency for interest rate cuts as a "litmus test" for appointments. The market generally expects the new chairman to push for more significant easing. This pre-pricing of future policies has greatly diluted the short-term impact of the current CPI data, becoming a key driver for the market's indifference to its fluctuations.

Tonight's focus is mainly on the evening's volatility. Brothers can take light positions or stay on the sidelines; the resistance at 4350 is relatively strong, so a light position can be taken with a stop at 4360, targeting around 4300 below.

If effective support is found around 4300 in the evening, one can reverse to go long, targeting up toward 4350-4380.