Analysis of the Impact of U.S. November Non-Farm Data on International Gold Prices
1. Data Exceeds Expectations: Gold Pressured Downward
If the non-farm employment figure is announced to be 50,000 higher than expected, while the unemployment rate is below 4.4% and average hourly earnings are rising, it will signal that the U.S. labor market remains strong. This will strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or even delay rate cuts, pushing the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields higher. As gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, its attractiveness will decrease, and international gold prices are likely to experience downward pressure, with key support levels needing close attention.
2. Data Falls Short of Expectations: Gold Boosted Upward
If non-farm employment is 50,000 lower than expected, the unemployment rate rises, and hourly wage data is weak, it suggests signs of cooling in the U.S. job market, raising concerns about economic recession. The market will bet on the Federal Reserve speeding up rate cuts, leading to a weaker dollar index and Treasury yields, activating gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes, with capital inflows driving up gold prices, and attention can be paid to the breakout of previous resistance levels.
3. Data Meets Expectations: Gold Consolidates
If non-farm data is basically in line with expectations, the labor market shows a “neutral” state, and there is no clear direction for Fed policy expectations, market bullish and bearish forces will temporarily balance. International gold is likely to be caught in a range-bound pattern, with price movements being more dominated by technical factors and other immediate news (such as geopolitical issues or U.S. dollar liquidity).
In addition, the U.S. October retail sales monthly rate, November average hourly earnings data, and other data released together will form a “data combination punch.” If there is a divergence between non-farm and consumption or wage data (e.g., weak non-farm but rising wages), the volatility and complexity of gold prices will further increase, requiring a comprehensive judgment based on multidimensional data.
