Experts are increasingly talking about the possibility of a crypto bull run in the first quarter of 2026. In their opinion, the market could receive a powerful boost due to the coincidence of several macroeconomic factors.
Analysts believe that the implementation of these catalysts could see Bitcoin rise in the range of $300,000 to $600,000. This scenario appears aggressive, but more and more market participants are starting to take it seriously.
Immediately, five key trends are coming together in what analysts call the perfect storm for digital assets.
The pause in the Fed's balance sheet reduction removes pressure from the market.
The Fed's quantitative tightening, which was draining liquidity from the markets throughout 2025, has recently ended.
Even a simple halt to the outflow of liquidity is historically considered a bullish signal for risky assets. Data from past cycles show that Bitcoin can rise by up to 40% at times when central banks stop reducing their balances.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that the beginning of 2026 could be the period when markets fully feel the effects of the end of QT on the part of the Fed.
The reduction in rates may continue.
The Fed recently lowered the interest rate, and the regulator's comments and Goldman Sachs' forecasts indicate that the cycle of reduction may continue in 2026. In such a scenario, rates could drop to the level of 3–3.25%.
Lower rates usually mean an increase in liquidity and heighten investors' interest in risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. It is during such periods that the market most often begins to seek higher returns, and digital assets find themselves in the spotlight.
The market is seeing more short-term liquidity.
The Fed has begun to act to ease tension in short-term financing. This involves the purchase of Treasury bills, which help keep short-term rates within the desired range and prevent the market from 'overheating' due to a lack of liquidity.
The regulator has already made it clear that it will begin technical purchases of T-bills specifically to manage liquidity. Jerome Powell separately emphasized that these measures do not mean a shift to a loose monetary policy:
"Purchases are made solely to maintain a sufficient level of reserves in the system and effectively control the interest rate. These measures do not reflect a change in the course of monetary policy."
Such interventions are not new for the Fed. When imbalances arise in the system, they quickly manifest in the overnight repo market, where banks borrow cash against government bonds. At such times, the regulator usually enters the market to smooth out the imbalance.
Recently, several indicators have pointed to an increase in short-term pressure on liquidity:
Money funds are holding elevated cash levels.
The issuance of Treasury bills is decreasing after a change in the structure of borrowings by the U.S. Treasury.
Seasonal demand for liquidity continues to grow.
The Fed has begun to buy Treasury bills to ensure that short-term rates do not stray far from the target level for the Federal Funds Rate. These are the shortest government bonds, usually ranging from a couple of weeks to a year.
This is not the same as classic QE. But the effect is similar: there is more money in the market 'here and now', and this almost always helps crypto.
If such actions continue in the first quarter of 2026, the backdrop for risky assets, including crypto and stocks, will improve. The Fed effectively stops tightening conditions and begins to support liquidity.
The authorities are interested in stable markets.
Currently, U.S. authorities are looking at the markets through the lens of the elections. The midterm elections will take place in November 2026, and in such a situation, sharp steps that could shake the stock market are unwelcome.
Instead, the focus is on stability. The calmer the markets behave, the fewer risks there are for the current administration. This reduces the likelihood of unexpected regulatory shocks and makes risky assets more attractive.
Macro researcher Thorsten Fröhlich speaks about this directly:
"If the stock market in the U.S. starts to decline before the midterm elections, the responsibility for this will fall on the current administration. That is why they will do everything possible to support the growth of stocks and the crypto market."
The paradox of the labor market.
When the labor market begins to cool, the Fed usually responds quite predictably. A slowdown in hiring or moderate layoffs quickly changes the regulator's tone and prompts it to act more gently.
This is an important moment for the crypto market. The weaker the labor market looks, the greater the pressure on the Fed to ease policy. And this almost always means more liquidity in the system and more comfortable conditions for the growth of digital assets.
Expert opinions indicate a strengthening of bullish sentiments.
Now more and more assessments are converging on one scenario. The macroeconomic background is gradually improving, and market participants are beginning to notice this. In the industry, there is increasing talk that the crypto market could return to growth as early as the beginning of 2026.
Alice Liu, head of research at CoinMarketCap, expects a recovery in February and March, linking this to a combination of positive macro indicators.
"We will see a return to growth in the first quarter of 2026. February and March will again become bullish months, based on the aggregate of macro indicators," Binance quotes Alice Liu.
There are also bolder forecasts. Crypto commentator Vibes believes that in the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin could move into the range of $300,000–$600,000. Such estimates reflect extremely bullish expectations amid improving liquidity and easing macro conditions.
At the same time, the market looks quite calm right now. Open interest in Bitcoin has decreased, indicating traders' caution and a lack of hype.
But this is precisely what creates the ground for a sharp movement. If macro factors indeed play out, a prolonged consolidation could end very quickly. In that case, the crypto market could well start 2026 with a movement that will later be remembered as one of the key turning points in the cycle.
