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5 reasons why the first quarter of 2026 could launch the largest bull market
Experts are increasingly talking about the possibility of a crypto bull run in the first quarter of 2026. In their opinion, the market could receive a powerful boost due to the coincidence of several macroeconomic factors.
Analysts believe that the implementation of these catalysts could see Bitcoin rise in the range of $300,000 to $600,000. This scenario appears aggressive, but more and more market participants are starting to take it seriously.
Analysts believe that the implementation of these catalysts could see Bitcoin rise in the range of $300,000 to $600,000. This scenario appears aggressive, but more and more market participants are starting to take it seriously.
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Volatility Calendar: a week where the market does not forgive mistakes
A very busy week ahead. News is coming in thick and fast, volatility may be sharp, so it's better to be cautious with large positions. The market does not like overconfidence on such days.
Tuesday, December 16
At 16:30 — data on employment in the private sector.
At 16:30 — the unemployment rate.
The labor market is the overall 'pulse' of the US economy.
Tuesday, December 16
At 16:30 — data on employment in the private sector.
At 16:30 — the unemployment rate.
The labor market is the overall 'pulse' of the US economy.
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Contender for the FRS Head: Trump's Opinion on Rates "Will Carry No Weight"
Kevin Hassett, one of the contenders for the position of Chairman of the Federal Reserve System of the United States, stated that Trump's opinion "will carry no weight" in the decision-making about interest rates. Quite a bold statement for someone who wants to get the position from Trump himself, isn't it?
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Economic Events
Important economic events this week (December 15–21, 2025)
Tuesday, December 16, 2025.
- 16:30 — Average hourly earnings (month over month, November)
Forecast: +0.2%
- 16:30 — Core retail sales (month over month, October)
Forecast: +0.3% (previous: +0.3%)
- 16:30 — Change in non-farm payrolls (November)
Tuesday, December 16, 2025.
- 16:30 — Average hourly earnings (month over month, November)
Forecast: +0.2%
- 16:30 — Core retail sales (month over month, October)
Forecast: +0.3% (previous: +0.3%)
- 16:30 — Change in non-farm payrolls (November)
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💵 #BTCUSDT
After yesterday's movement amid the Fed, the market looks like it could use a bounce from current levels.
In an alternative scenario, they might break through the lower level, collect stop losses, and from there show a reversal upwards.
In short: locally, the long picture still looks neat and workable.
$BTC #btc #frs #frs
After yesterday's movement amid the Fed, the market looks like it could use a bounce from current levels.
In an alternative scenario, they might break through the lower level, collect stop losses, and from there show a reversal upwards.
In short: locally, the long picture still looks neat and workable.
$BTC #btc #frs #frs
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The Fed launches a new liquidity management regime: is this a return to QE
The Federal Reserve has announced a decision that fundamentally changes the liquidity dynamics in financial markets. Formally, the regulator avoids the terminology 'QE', but the mechanics of the adopted steps are very reminiscent of the early stages of quantitative easing programs.
1. Rate cut and halt of QT
1. Rate cut and halt of QT
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Federal Reserve Supporting Letter: Launch of QE and New Trajectory of the Macroeconomic Cycle
The Federal Reserve has published a supporting document that effectively records the transition to a new stage of monetary policy. The central signal was the launch of the quantitative easing program, which significantly alters the balance of power in financial markets.
1. Launch of QE and its impact on liquidity
1. Launch of QE and its impact on liquidity
Какие мысли по сегодняшнему заседанию #фрс ?
Лично я склоняюсь к варианту роста, уж больно сильно долго падаем
#фрс #frs #JeromePowell
Лично я склоняюсь к варианту роста, уж больно сильно долго падаем
#фрс #frs #JeromePowell
Уверенный рост
29%
Уверенное падение
25%
Сначала памп потом летим вниз
25%
Сначала дамп потом летим вверх
21%
24 votes • Voting closed
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The market is showing growth: what lies behind the sudden 'greening'
The cryptocurrency market has entered a phase of increased volatility against the backdrop of a sharp improvement in the news context. At the same time, the number of simplified interpretations of events is rising, provoking excessive optimism among traders. Below are the key factors shaping the current dynamics.
1. Aggressively positive expectations regarding monetary policy
1. Aggressively positive expectations regarding monetary policy
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The most important economic events of the week (December 8–15, 2025)
Tuesday, December 9
18:00 – JOLTS: Number of job openings in the US labor market (for September)
Forecast: 7.200 million
Previous value: 7.227 million
Wednesday, December 10
18:30 – Crude oil inventories in the US (EIA)
Forecast: +0.574 million barrels
22:00 – Economic forecasts FOMC
22:00 – Statement of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
22:00 – Decision of the Federal Reserve System on the interest rate
Forecast: 3.75 %
Previous value: 4.00 %
22:30 – Press conference of the Fed Chair
Thursday, December 11
16:30 – Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US
Forecast: 221 thousand
Previous value: 191 thousand
This week will be extremely important due to the FOMC meeting and the likely rate cut of 25 basis points.
#FRS #economy
Tuesday, December 9
18:00 – JOLTS: Number of job openings in the US labor market (for September)
Forecast: 7.200 million
Previous value: 7.227 million
Wednesday, December 10
18:30 – Crude oil inventories in the US (EIA)
Forecast: +0.574 million barrels
22:00 – Economic forecasts FOMC
22:00 – Statement of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
22:00 – Decision of the Federal Reserve System on the interest rate
Forecast: 3.75 %
Previous value: 4.00 %
22:30 – Press conference of the Fed Chair
Thursday, December 11
16:30 – Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US
Forecast: 221 thousand
Previous value: 191 thousand
This week will be extremely important due to the FOMC meeting and the likely rate cut of 25 basis points.
#FRS #economy
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🚨 Preparation for possible market changes
Today at 15:30, the publication of data regarding the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the USA is expected. Forecasts indicate a possible increase to 2.8%.
If the actual figure turns out to be lower, it may signal a decrease in the Fed's rate and stimulate market growth. In case of a higher figure, the market may face a pause and potential decline.
#frs
Today at 15:30, the publication of data regarding the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the USA is expected. Forecasts indicate a possible increase to 2.8%.
If the actual figure turns out to be lower, it may signal a decrease in the Fed's rate and stimulate market growth. In case of a higher figure, the market may face a pause and potential decline.
#frs
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Important Economic Events This Week (February 10-15, 2025)
Tuesday, February 11
6:00 PM – Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Remarks
Wednesday, February 12
4:30 PM – Core CPI (MoM) (January)
- Forecast: 0.3%
- Previous: 0.2%
4:30 PM – CPI (MoM) (January)
- Forecast: 0.3%
- Previous: 0.4%
4:30 PM – CPI (YoY) (January)
- Previous: 2.9%
6:00 PM – Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Remarks
6:30 PM – Crude Oil Inventories
- Previous: 8.664 million
Thursday, 13 February
16:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
- Previous: 219K
16:30 – Producer Price Index (MoM) (January)
- Previous: 0.2%
Friday, February 14
16:30 – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (January)
- Previous: 0.4%
16:30 – Retail Sales Volume (MoM) (January)
- Previous: 0.4%
#frs #data #economy
Tuesday, February 11
6:00 PM – Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Remarks
Wednesday, February 12
4:30 PM – Core CPI (MoM) (January)
- Forecast: 0.3%
- Previous: 0.2%
4:30 PM – CPI (MoM) (January)
- Forecast: 0.3%
- Previous: 0.4%
4:30 PM – CPI (YoY) (January)
- Previous: 2.9%
6:00 PM – Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Remarks
6:30 PM – Crude Oil Inventories
- Previous: 8.664 million
Thursday, 13 February
16:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
- Previous: 219K
16:30 – Producer Price Index (MoM) (January)
- Previous: 0.2%
Friday, February 14
16:30 – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (January)
- Previous: 0.4%
16:30 – Retail Sales Volume (MoM) (January)
- Previous: 0.4%
#frs #data #economy
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Important economic events this week, April 21 - 25:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025
16:45
Manufacturing PMI (April)
Previous value: 50.2
16:45
Services PMI (April)
Previous value: 54.4
17:00
New home sales (March)
Forecast: 680K | Previous value: 676K
17:30
Crude oil inventories
Previous value: 0.515 million barrels
Thursday, April 24, 2025
15:30
Initial jobless claims
Previous value: 215K
17:00
Existing home sales (March)
Forecast: 4.14 million | Previous value: 4.26 million
#FRS #economy #data
Wednesday, April 23, 2025
16:45
Manufacturing PMI (April)
Previous value: 50.2
16:45
Services PMI (April)
Previous value: 54.4
17:00
New home sales (March)
Forecast: 680K | Previous value: 676K
17:30
Crude oil inventories
Previous value: 0.515 million barrels
Thursday, April 24, 2025
15:30
Initial jobless claims
Previous value: 215K
17:00
Existing home sales (March)
Forecast: 4.14 million | Previous value: 4.26 million
#FRS #economy #data
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Important economic events this week, March 3–8:
Monday, March 3, 2025
17:45 – Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector (February)
Forecast: 51.6
Previous: 51.2
18:00 – Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from ISM for the manufacturing sector (February)
Forecast: 50.8
Previous: 50.9
Wednesday, March 5, 2025
16:15 – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls from ADP (February)
Previous: 183K
17:45 – Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the services sector (February)
Forecast: 49.7
Previous: 52.9
18:00 – Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the U.S. from ISM (February)
Forecast: 53.0
Previous: 52.8
18:30 – Crude Oil Inventories
Previous: -2.332M
Thursday, March 6, 2025
16:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: 242K
Friday, March 7, 2025
16:30 – Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) (February)
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.5%
16:30 – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (February)
Forecast: 133K
Previous: 143K
16:30 – Unemployment Rate (February)
Forecast: 4.0%
Previous: 4.0%
19:00 – FOMC Monetary Policy Report
20:30 – Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell
#frs #data #economy
Monday, March 3, 2025
17:45 – Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector (February)
Forecast: 51.6
Previous: 51.2
18:00 – Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from ISM for the manufacturing sector (February)
Forecast: 50.8
Previous: 50.9
Wednesday, March 5, 2025
16:15 – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls from ADP (February)
Previous: 183K
17:45 – Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the services sector (February)
Forecast: 49.7
Previous: 52.9
18:00 – Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the U.S. from ISM (February)
Forecast: 53.0
Previous: 52.8
18:30 – Crude Oil Inventories
Previous: -2.332M
Thursday, March 6, 2025
16:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: 242K
Friday, March 7, 2025
16:30 – Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) (February)
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.5%
16:30 – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (February)
Forecast: 133K
Previous: 143K
16:30 – Unemployment Rate (February)
Forecast: 4.0%
Previous: 4.0%
19:00 – FOMC Monetary Policy Report
20:30 – Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell
#frs #data #economy
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Local altseason?
Essentially, last week we saw what we wrote after the CPI data: we expect growth before the Fed meeting or, at least, over the weekend.
After a week of sideways movement, both the altcoins and the mid- and small-cap coins performed well: $ETH – up to $4700, SOL – up to $243, and the same PUMP shot up nearly 3x from the bottom, etc.
We know that many were waiting for similar levels to lock in profits, so congratulations: perhaps someone locked in part of their positions and took some stables for themselves.
We are smoothly approaching day X (Fed rate), we are already seeing a slight pullback in the market, and besides sell on news, many forget that September is the end of the financial year in the USA.
Therefore, the second half is that period when funds are "poured out": companies sell off and lock in profits for reporting. Most likely, they could also pull down crypto, so be prepared for such a scenario.
#FRS
Essentially, last week we saw what we wrote after the CPI data: we expect growth before the Fed meeting or, at least, over the weekend.
After a week of sideways movement, both the altcoins and the mid- and small-cap coins performed well: $ETH – up to $4700, SOL – up to $243, and the same PUMP shot up nearly 3x from the bottom, etc.
We know that many were waiting for similar levels to lock in profits, so congratulations: perhaps someone locked in part of their positions and took some stables for themselves.
We are smoothly approaching day X (Fed rate), we are already seeing a slight pullback in the market, and besides sell on news, many forget that September is the end of the financial year in the USA.
Therefore, the second half is that period when funds are "poured out": companies sell off and lock in profits for reporting. Most likely, they could also pull down crypto, so be prepared for such a scenario.
#FRS
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The reason for the current correction is the speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Alberto Musalem. He said it may be time to slow the pace of interest rate cuts amid higher inflation and easing concerns about the labor market.
Be careful and follow your RM!!!
#BTC #ETH #SOL #FRS
The reason for the current correction is the speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Alberto Musalem. He said it may be time to slow the pace of interest rate cuts amid higher inflation and easing concerns about the labor market.
Be careful and follow your RM!!!
#BTC #ETH #SOL #FRS
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Important economic events this week, November 4-8:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
- 13:00
Presidential elections
- 17:45
Business Activity Index (PMI) in the services sector (October)
Forecast: 55.3
Previous: 55.3
- 18:00
ISM US Non-Manufacturing PMI (October)
Forecast: 53.3
Previous: 54.9
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
- 18:30
Crude oil reserves
Previous: -0.515 million barrels
Thursday, November 7, 2024
- 4:30 p.m
The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits
Previous: 216 thousand
- 21:00
Fed interest rate decision
Forecast: 4.75%
Previous: 5.00%
- 22:00
FOMC statement
- 10:30 p.m
FOMC press conference
#frs #economy #data
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
- 13:00
Presidential elections
- 17:45
Business Activity Index (PMI) in the services sector (October)
Forecast: 55.3
Previous: 55.3
- 18:00
ISM US Non-Manufacturing PMI (October)
Forecast: 53.3
Previous: 54.9
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
- 18:30
Crude oil reserves
Previous: -0.515 million barrels
Thursday, November 7, 2024
- 4:30 p.m
The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits
Previous: 216 thousand
- 21:00
Fed interest rate decision
Forecast: 4.75%
Previous: 5.00%
- 22:00
FOMC statement
- 10:30 p.m
FOMC press conference
#frs #economy #data
See original
Key points from Jerome Powell's speech before the US Senate Banking Committee:
Powell said he doesn't expect an interest rate hike anytime soon, but declined to specify the exact timing of a possible cut. "I'm not going to give any signals about the timing of future actions."
The chairman of the Fed stressed the importance of a cautious approach to avoid risks to the economy associated with premature or delayed actions. He noted that all decisions will be made gradually, based on current data, with the possibility of a rate reduction in September.
The latest inflation data suggest gradual progress, and positive results could bolster confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target. Powell also noted that unexpected weakness in the labor market could be a reason to lower rates.
Despite some slowing of the economy and cooling of the labor market, the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards. Powell emphasized that the US economy remains one of the strongest in the world.
Markets reacted mutedly as Powell avoided giving clear signals about the Fed's short-term policy.
#frs #data #economy
Powell said he doesn't expect an interest rate hike anytime soon, but declined to specify the exact timing of a possible cut. "I'm not going to give any signals about the timing of future actions."
The chairman of the Fed stressed the importance of a cautious approach to avoid risks to the economy associated with premature or delayed actions. He noted that all decisions will be made gradually, based on current data, with the possibility of a rate reduction in September.
The latest inflation data suggest gradual progress, and positive results could bolster confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target. Powell also noted that unexpected weakness in the labor market could be a reason to lower rates.
Despite some slowing of the economy and cooling of the labor market, the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards. Powell emphasized that the US economy remains one of the strongest in the world.
Markets reacted mutedly as Powell avoided giving clear signals about the Fed's short-term policy.
#frs #data #economy
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