molfar_Uk

Market Overview (Globally)

Now let's zoom out.
The market is really tough right now; for the last 2 months, we've been stuck in a range with constant tension from both sides. Everything is being overshadowed by AI performance, which could start dragging at any moment. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 hit an ATH, while <a>$BTC </a> Bitcoin hasn't even crossed 80K.

Main Scenario:
I'm waiting for a bottom formation in various scenarios, where I WILL BE BUYING. Check out the screenshot; these are all entry points. There's no point in guessing:
- If geopolitics or macro factors hit, we could drop harder;
- If there's less FOMO, we might drop less.

What if we don't go for a correction?
If we don't drop soon and move towards 80K+, I'll have to admit that we've missed the bottom and will need to buy higher. But right now, my portfolio has 50% in stablecoins, so that scenario works for me.

Conclusion
We're operating with moderate risk and trying to protect ourselves from all scenarios. Diversification isn't about maximizing profits; it's about minimizing mistakes.

❓ Powell's 8-year term is coming to an end

Today at 21:00 – the Fed's decision on the rate.

The market is pricing in a 99-100% chance of keeping the rate at 3.5–3.75% – this will be the third meeting in a row with no changes.

The ongoing war with Iran continues to pressure energy and prices – the Fed has adopted a "wait and see" tactic, taking its time to neither cut nor raise.

The key point today isn't really the decision itself, which likely won't bring high volatility, but Powell's press conference, which will be his last.

Two scenarios:

🟢 either a hard signal about worsening economic conditions - leading to increased volatility in the markets

🟢 or a neutral outcome, leaving everything for the successor.

Both options are worth keeping in mind.

The successor – Kevin Warsh, a Trump nominee who has already passed the Senate committee. Historically a "hawk", but lately criticized the Fed for its slow pace in lowering rates. How he will stand up to Trump's pressure to cut rates – time will tell.
$BTC
🔴 No trading decisions regarding the market will be made until the rate release and press conference – we are waiting for the actual release and listening to Powell's final rhetoric. Only after that can we plan our next moves.
$XRP
$PEPE

$BTC $ETH $XRP NO MORE "MR. NICE GUY!" — Trump posted a pic where he's holding a weapon against a backdrop of explosions.

⚡️🛡 Trust Wallet has integrated Hyperliquid - commission-free trading (!) is now available right in the wallet, with a user-friendly mobile interface.

Now, Trust Wallet users can directly trade on the Hyperliquid and Aster markets straight from one wallet – simultaneously opening up mass distribution for Hyperliquid through the Trust Wallet audience and strengthening its position in the "wallet wars."

Against this backdrop, an interesting dynamic is forming: on one hand, CZ might be losing the battle in the perp DEX segment, but at the same time, he’s winning thanks to Trust Wallet as a channel for integrating Hyperliquid. Moreover, this seems like a conscious move by Trust Wallet to step outside the BNB ecosystem, emphasizing a shift towards a more open multi-chain strategy and competing for users at the product level, rather than through ecosystem lock-in.

$ETH doesn't like FOMC meetings 🤬

Since last October, ETH has dropped over 17% after each meeting.

Let's hope this time the pattern doesn't play out.
Drop your comments below!!

❗️👀 Pumpfun just burned 36% of the PUMP supply worth $370 million and is launching a buyback program, allocating 50% of the revenue for it.$PUMP

$BTC $ETH so what do you think about that? in the green or in the red?

Polymarket — the next mega-app

You’ve probably seen that Polymarket has rolled out a massive upgrade where they launched their stablecoin $pUSD. If you’re trading on Polymarket, make sure to convert your balances to the new stablecoin.

Recently, the project has grown significantly. Here are some key metrics:
- 122M visits in Q1;
- Volumes on all markets except sports are nearly 5 times that of Kalshi;
- In the last 30 days, revenue hit $25M (in the NHL - $52M);
- $2.9B invested with a valuation of $15B.

Just a month ago, Polymarket added fees and already has such high revenue (top 3 protocol), and it’s clear this is just the beginning, especially since futures will add to the revenue.

The only challenge is how to gain exposure to a project with such metrics, as there are many people involved. You can hope for base rewards and push the leaderboard to 100K in volumes; that’s still manageable.

And of course, trading natively is key—there’s been a lot of speculation, and I think there will be even more! 👍
I would appreciate a cup of tea!!!

UAE is pulling out of OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1st.ㅤㅤ

The country is no longer bound by oil production quotas.

For your info:
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is an international cartel of oil-producing nations, established in 1960 to coordinate policies and stabilize oil prices.

This could increase oil supply in the market and drag prices down. At the same time, the market will become more volatile — sharp swings are possible.$CL

So who's dumping $ETH ?

Two wallets linked to Galaxy Digital have offloaded 45,000 ETH ($104 million) in the last 15 hours, sending it over to Binance, Bybit, and OKX.

⚡️ The global economy is hanging by 5 key nodes, one of which is blocked — we're talking about the Omur Strait, and another node is literally under the crosshairs of the Houthis.

If other "bottlenecks" get blocked, we could face a global crisis.

• The Bosporus in the Black Sea and the Danish Straits in the Baltic are critically important routes for both Ukraine and Russia.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
The main flow of raw materials from Russian Baltic ports like Ust-Luga and Primorsk goes through the Danish Straits. But Europe can't block the "shadow fleet" due to international obligations and the risks of escalation.

• The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait — we've talked about it before. Right now, this is potentially the most dangerous zone.

• The Malacca Strait — the shortest corridor from the Middle East to Asia could be blocked due to the US-China conflict.

In the worst-case scenario, China could close the Malacca Strait — thereby blocking energy resources for Taiwan, South Korea, or Japan.

• The Panama Canal — provides a direct route from the Atlantic to the Pacific, with risks of shallowing due to climate change. The canal is especially important for connecting the US East and West Coasts.

Why do I want to transfer $ETH to $HYPE ?

I came across a post on Twitter by Ansem about his thoughts on ETH, and I really liked them.

The thesis for ETH's growth has been gradually declining over the past few years:
- Solana has been dominating retail;
- Hyperliquid is active in perpetuals;
- L2 rollups haven’t gained enough traction, and Vitalik has already distanced himself from them.

The core value of ETH lies in the security and reliability of DeFi and institutional players, and the situation with AAVE is a direct hit to ETH's value.

ETH in 2026 is in a worse position than in 2023 and right now it looks like an asset at $300B with some nuances:
- many holders are ready to sell as soon as it rises slightly;
- purchases by Tom Lee, which centralizes supply;
- holders sitting idle in DeFi protocols.

With this post, I’m not saying that I don’t believe in this asset — no, it’s fundamental, but we see how ETH has been performing worse each year, so I want to derisk and transfer to a more promising asset for the long haul.

👀Circle Ventures is scooping up tokens $AAVE because a strong DeFi infrastructure doesn’t just pop up out of nowhere.

Aave is shaping the future of on-chain finance, and we’re backing this ecosystem and the entire community that has formed around it.

How long does it take to crack a password?

It all depends on the length and variety of characters: 8 characters with letters, numbers, and symbols can be brute-forced in about 5 months, while 12 characters with the same set can take up to $ million years.

A typical long password with numbers, letters, and symbols is practically impossible to crack through brute force, but short and simple combinations like qwerty123 can be broken almost instantly.$BTC $ETH $BNB

Got burned on the edge 😁

Today, that same insider who made $2.2 million on APE went long on LDO, opening a position of $4.58 million.

But apparently, the strong shill on Twitter about him going long on $LDO scared him off, and he closed his position at a loss.

S&P 500 — ATH
Nasdaq — ATH
Russell 2000 — ATH
$BTC — 61% до ATH

ETH season - not just shields are firing, but also NFTs 😎$ETH

Meanwhile, the price of Ether:

⚪️April 26, 2021 - $2,328
⚪️April 27, 2026 - $2,328

NVIDIA's market cap is back up to $5 trillion $XAU

❗️Trump to New York Post reporter: Time to bounce from Islamabad. There won’t be a second round of talks between the US and Iran.

Fresh tweet from Trump
I just canceled my reps' trip to Islamabad, Pakistan, to meet with the Iranians.

Moreover, they (Iran) have huge internal discrepancies and chaos in their "leadership." Nobody even knows who's in charge, not even them. Besides, we hold all the aces, they have none! If they want to talk, they just need to ring us up!$BTC $CL

A quantum computer has demonstrated the breaking of the cryptography that Bitcoin relies on.ㅤㅤㅤㅤ

A researcher snagged 1 BTC for cracking a 15-bit elliptic curve cryptography key using Shor's algorithm on public quantum hardware.

This is at an experimental level, which is significantly weaker than the real 256-bit keys used in blockchains.

In the long run, this ramps up the debate about the security of crypto assets and the need to transition to post-quantum solutions.$BTC