V340RK
Публікую логіку ринку, а не «поради». Пояснюю тренди, цикли, ліквідність. Слідкуй за ходом великих гравців.
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Extension of Cycles: why the market's end may be postponed
Raoul Pal's View: the cycles are no longer the same
Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision, has long viewed the crypto market not in isolation, but through macro lenses. He is one of those who warned in advance about a Bitcoin correction of approximately 35%, and here the important thing is not the prediction itself, but the logic he employs.
Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision, has long viewed the crypto market not in isolation, but through macro lenses. He is one of those who warned in advance about a Bitcoin correction of approximately 35%, and here the important thing is not the prediction itself, but the logic he employs.
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The first month of copy trading: calmly and in profit
The first month of our work in copy trading has passed. There were not many trades — without chaos and the rush for every movement. The focus was on reliable setups, not on quantity.
As a result of the month, we have +40%. For a start — the result is more than adequate. Without crazy risks and nervous decisions.
We continue at the same pace. The main thing is stability, a cool head, and risk control. The market will still provide opportunities.
The first month of our work in copy trading has passed. There were not many trades — without chaos and the rush for every movement. The focus was on reliable setups, not on quantity.
As a result of the month, we have +40%. For a start — the result is more than adequate. Without crazy risks and nervous decisions.
We continue at the same pace. The main thing is stability, a cool head, and risk control. The market will still provide opportunities.
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Volatility Calendar: a week where the market does not forgive mistakes
A very busy week ahead. News is coming in thick and fast, volatility may be sharp, so it's better to be cautious with large positions. The market does not like overconfidence on such days.
Tuesday, December 16
At 16:30 — data on employment in the private sector.
At 16:30 — the unemployment rate.
The labor market is the overall 'pulse' of the US economy.
Tuesday, December 16
At 16:30 — data on employment in the private sector.
At 16:30 — the unemployment rate.
The labor market is the overall 'pulse' of the US economy.
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Bitcoin and Altcoins: The End of the Cycle or the Substitution of Reality
The market is tough right now. Tired, nervous, without euphoria. In such moments, the worst decision is to trade on emotions. So we look not at loud opinions, but at structure, numbers, and recurring patterns. Not forecasts. Probabilities.
Time and cycles #BTC
In previous cycles, Bitcoin formed peaks almost in the same period — in December. 2013, 2017, 2021. Now it's December again, but in 2025.
Time and cycles #BTC
In previous cycles, Bitcoin formed peaks almost in the same period — in December. 2013, 2017, 2021. Now it's December again, but in 2025.
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The Federal Reserve, 'printing press' and a cold shower for myths: what really happened on December 10
After the Federal Reserve meeting, the narrative split into two camps. Some shout that 'the Fed is printing money again', while others calm down: 'These are just technical operations with short-term bonds'. And the truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle. Let's sort it out without magic, conspiracy theories, and 'new QE'.
On December 10, the Federal Reserve took three steps. First, it lowered the rate by 0.25 percentage points again — nothing sensational, just a move towards easing. Second, QT was completed on December 1, so the balance is no longer shrinking. Third, and most importantly: official purchases of short-term Treasury securities have been launched within the Reserve Management Purchases. The goal is simple — to ensure a comfortable level of reserves in the banking system, and that short rates do not jump.
On December 10, the Federal Reserve took three steps. First, it lowered the rate by 0.25 percentage points again — nothing sensational, just a move towards easing. Second, QT was completed on December 1, so the balance is no longer shrinking. Third, and most importantly: official purchases of short-term Treasury securities have been launched within the Reserve Management Purchases. The goal is simple — to ensure a comfortable level of reserves in the banking system, and that short rates do not jump.
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How the Fed quietly launches the "printing press"
<t-7/>#FRS is again entering the territory of quasi-#qe . Officially, no one calls it that, but in fact we have regular buybacks of government bonds worth billions of dollars. A way to support the market without directly announcing stimulus.
The buyback schedule looks like this:
December 12, 2025 — 8.167 billion dollars
The buyback schedule looks like this:
December 12, 2025 — 8.167 billion dollars
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FSOC - removed digital assets from the list of possible threats
#FSOC American Council for Financial Stability has removed digital assets from the list of potential threats to the US financial system. Quietly, without drama and without loud statements. Just a statement of fact: the crypto market no longer looks like a ticking time bomb under the economy.
FSOC was created after the 2008 crisis to prevent the country from spiraling into such a nosedive again. The council includes heads of key financial departments. They monitor systemic risks, coordinate oversight, and can assign large non-bank companies the status of systemically important if they potentially have the ability to 'shake' the market.
FSOC was created after the 2008 crisis to prevent the country from spiraling into such a nosedive again. The council includes heads of key financial departments. They monitor systemic risks, coordinate oversight, and can assign large non-bank companies the status of systemically important if they potentially have the ability to 'shake' the market.
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The Federal Reserve turned on the money printer: what is really happening and how it will affect the market
After yesterday's meeting of the US Federal Reserve, the headlines of leading media were filled with the thesis that the American regulator "turned on the printing press." However, the real content of Jerome Powell's statements is much more complex. Below is a detailed analysis based on actual quotes and market reactions.
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Bitcoin at $1,300,000: why this forecast may be too conservative
Analysts #Bitwise presented an estimate that significantly shifts the perception of Bitcoin's long-term potential. According to the company's CIO, a target of $1.3 million by 2035 may turn out to be not optimistic but rather too cautious.
1. Evaluation model: the share #BTC of gold capitalization
The basis of the forecast is the assumption that the share of Bitcoin relative to the market capitalization of gold will increase.
1. Evaluation model: the share #BTC of gold capitalization
The basis of the forecast is the assumption that the share of Bitcoin relative to the market capitalization of gold will increase.
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The Fed launches a new liquidity management regime: is this a return to QE
The Federal Reserve has announced a decision that fundamentally changes the liquidity dynamics in financial markets. Formally, the regulator avoids the terminology 'QE', but the mechanics of the adopted steps are very reminiscent of the early stages of quantitative easing programs.
1. Rate cut and halt of QT
1. Rate cut and halt of QT
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Federal Reserve Supporting Letter: Launch of QE and New Trajectory of the Macroeconomic Cycle
The Federal Reserve has published a supporting document that effectively records the transition to a new stage of monetary policy. The central signal was the launch of the quantitative easing program, which significantly alters the balance of power in financial markets.
1. Launch of QE and its impact on liquidity
1. Launch of QE and its impact on liquidity
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US Fed's decision on the rate: what it means for the market
Current Fed rate: 4%
Market expectation: a decrease of 0.25%
Fact: the rate has been reduced by 0.25%
The Federal Reserve has lowered the key rate in line with investors' expectations. The market had already priced in this decision, so no sharp reaction was anticipated. In the short term, even sales on the fact of the news are possible, as the key driver of movement now becomes not the decision itself, but the further rhetoric of the regulator.
Market expectation: a decrease of 0.25%
Fact: the rate has been reduced by 0.25%
The Federal Reserve has lowered the key rate in line with investors' expectations. The market had already priced in this decision, so no sharp reaction was anticipated. In the short term, even sales on the fact of the news are possible, as the key driver of movement now becomes not the decision itself, but the further rhetoric of the regulator.
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Green light for cryptocurrencies in US national banks
The USA has taken one of the most important steps towards the legalization and widespread adoption of digital assets. The largest national banks have officially received permission from the OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) to act as intermediaries in cryptocurrency transactions. This decision opens a new stage of integration for the crypto market into the country's traditional financial system.
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The market is showing growth: what lies behind the sudden 'greening'
The cryptocurrency market has entered a phase of increased volatility against the backdrop of a sharp improvement in the news context. At the same time, the number of simplified interpretations of events is rising, provoking excessive optimism among traders. Below are the key factors shaping the current dynamics.
1. Aggressively positive expectations regarding monetary policy
1. Aggressively positive expectations regarding monetary policy
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US Macroeconomic Data: Labor Market Situation According to JOLTS Indicators
The latest data on job openings in the JOLTS report shows an unexpected strengthening of demand for labor, despite the overall cooling of economic indicators in the US.
1. Job Openings for September (JOLTS, September)
Fact: 7.658 million
Forecast: 7.200 million
Previous Indicator: 7.227 million
The exceedance of the forecast indicates that the labor market has remained resilient even during a period of heightened monetary pressure and rising rates.
2. Job Openings for October (JOLTS, October)
Fact: 7.670 million
The dynamics of October confirm that the labor shortage is still palpable, and the demand for workers remains higher than analysts' expectations.
Conclusion
JOLTS indicators have exceeded forecasts for two consecutive months. This signals that the US labor market is not yet showing a sharp cooling. For the Fed, such dynamics may imply additional risks of inflationary pressure, as a strong labor market traditionally supports consumer activity. However, in the context of the completion of the QT program and the anticipated rate decrease, the probability of a gradual easing of policy remains in the coming months.
#USJobsData #Macro
The latest data on job openings in the JOLTS report shows an unexpected strengthening of demand for labor, despite the overall cooling of economic indicators in the US.
1. Job Openings for September (JOLTS, September)
Fact: 7.658 million
Forecast: 7.200 million
Previous Indicator: 7.227 million
The exceedance of the forecast indicates that the labor market has remained resilient even during a period of heightened monetary pressure and rising rates.
2. Job Openings for October (JOLTS, October)
Fact: 7.670 million
The dynamics of October confirm that the labor shortage is still palpable, and the demand for workers remains higher than analysts' expectations.
Conclusion
JOLTS indicators have exceeded forecasts for two consecutive months. This signals that the US labor market is not yet showing a sharp cooling. For the Fed, such dynamics may imply additional risks of inflationary pressure, as a strong labor market traditionally supports consumer activity. However, in the context of the completion of the QT program and the anticipated rate decrease, the probability of a gradual easing of policy remains in the coming months.
#USJobsData #Macro
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Signs of a market bubble forming in gold and risky assets: BIS position
The Bank for International Settlements (#BIS ) has recorded a strengthening of imbalances in global markets. Gold, which is traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, has ceased to perform its classic function and has started to behave like a highly speculative instrument. This creates signs of a bubble forming alongside the overheating of U.S. stock indices.
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Financial flows in American spot ETFs: weekly dynamics
In the past week, the market recorded mixed capital flows among key cryptocurrencies #etf . Investors altered their risk structure, which affected the capital redistribution among individual assets.
#bitcoin ($BTC )
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $87.77 million. This may signal a decrease in risk appetite among institutional players or profit-taking after volatile periods.
#bitcoin ($BTC )
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $87.77 million. This may signal a decrease in risk appetite among institutional players or profit-taking after volatile periods.
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Glassnode: The BTC accumulation indicator is approaching peak values
Analysts #Glassnode recorded a sharp increase in the indicator #BitcoinTrendAccumulationScore , which rose to a level of 0.99. This is one of the highest readings in recent cycles and signals that nearly all classes of investors — from large players to retail traders — are actively increasing positions in #bitcoin .
A historically similar pattern has emerged in two scenarios: before a trend change or during moments of intense market rallies when demand increases and supply in circulation decreases. Accumulation takes on a systematic nature, forming the basis for medium-term price movements.
A historically similar pattern has emerged in two scenarios: before a trend change or during moments of intense market rallies when demand increases and supply in circulation decreases. Accumulation takes on a systematic nature, forming the basis for medium-term price movements.
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Bitcoin in the trap phase: key market signals and benchmarks for 2026–2027
1. Market context: correction as part of the cycle
The current correction in the crypto market is accompanied by the unloading of weak participants. For short-term investors, this creates panic, but from a cyclical analysis perspective, such declines are natural. Corrections are preceded by both prolonged phases of decline and subsequent growth impulses.
The current correction in the crypto market is accompanied by the unloading of weak participants. For short-term investors, this creates panic, but from a cyclical analysis perspective, such declines are natural. Corrections are preceded by both prolonged phases of decline and subsequent growth impulses.
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The boom of digital treasuries has ended in failure — Bloomberg
The ecosystem #DigitalAssets Treasury (#DAT ), which just a few months ago seemed like a new phase of corporate finance, is experiencing a sharp collapse. The model, built by analogy with Michael Saylor's strategy, has shown systemic vulnerabilities.
1. How the DAT model worked
The principle was simple: companies raised capital, converted it into crypto assets, and demonstrated market dynamics that outpaced the growth of the assets themselves. In the first half of the year, this approach had an explosive effect. The stocks of individual companies soared by hundreds and thousands of percent. SharpLink demonstrated over +2600%, ALT5 Sigma received significant attention due to the involvement of members of the Trump family.
1. How the DAT model worked
The principle was simple: companies raised capital, converted it into crypto assets, and demonstrated market dynamics that outpaced the growth of the assets themselves. In the first half of the year, this approach had an explosive effect. The stocks of individual companies soared by hundreds and thousands of percent. SharpLink demonstrated over +2600%, ALT5 Sigma received significant attention due to the involvement of members of the Trump family.
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