The Labor Department released how to interpret the non-farm and unemployment rates for November!
An "atypical" report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report today showing that non-farm employment in November increased only slightly by 64,000, with almost no net growth in overall employment since April of this year. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest point in four years.
🔥 The background of this report is extremely special. Due to the federal government shutdown from early October to mid-November, the collection and release of data were severely disrupted. Officials were even unable to calculate the unemployment rate data for October, leading this analysis to only compare with September's data, which increased the difficulty of judging trends.
🔥 Looking beyond the surface to see the essence
Faced with such a "chaotic" data set, mainstream institutions' views are to interpret cautiously rather than overreact.
· Goldman Sachs pointed out that the federal government's "delayed departure plan" and other one-time policies severely impacted overall employment data and suggested that investors should pay more attention to changes in private sector employment that are not affected by this disruption.
· Deutsche Bank reminded that data collected immediately after the government shutdown ends may be distorted.
Core conclusions
1. The data itself is weak: employment growth is nearly stagnant, and the rising unemployment rate indeed indicates that the labor market is significantly slowing down.
2. There are huge disruptive factors: the government shutdown and subsequent adjustments are one-time shocks that may exaggerate the degree of market weakness.
3. Need for subsequent verification: The importance of this report is reduced due to data quality issues. The true state of the labor market awaits a clearer picture from the December report to be released in early January next year. Before that, the market should avoid making trend judgments based on a single data point.
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