Although the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, exceeding expectations of 50,000, the unemployment rate reached a new high since September 2001 at 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%. The few tens of thousands of new jobs represent only a drop in the bucket when viewed against the total workforce multiplied by 4.6%, which gives the total number of unemployed. In the short term, it seems there are no employment issues, but in the long run, it indicates an economic downturn, and the number of unemployed will gradually increase.
The November non-farm data released also revised the data from August and September, inflating the employment figures by 33,000, meaning the previous data was significantly overstated. Coupled with the U.S. government shutdown in October, this led to many figures being inaccurate or not published at all.
Therefore, I suspect that the November non-farm data is also inflated, crafted to look good to stabilize confidence first, with policy adjustments to follow. The people at the Federal Reserve are well aware of this and tacitly acknowledge it.
In summary, the expectation for interest rate cuts is increasing; in January, there may be a surprise rate cut when no one expects it.
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