Bitcoin showed nervousness again.
The price fell below $86,000, with a drop of nearly 4%, and the focus is not on the U.S.
It is in Japan.
A recent survey indicates that 90% of economists expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise rates from 0.50% to 0.75% this week.
Historically, this event has been anything but irrelevant for Bitcoin.
The Precedent Is Not Reassuring
Every time the BOJ has tightened its policy, BTC has reacted strongly:
March 2024: −23%
July 2024: −26%
January: −31%
If the pattern repeats even partially, a 20% correction from current levels would take BTC towards the $68,000–$70,000 zone, still within a healthy retracement after an ATH close to $126K.
Why does Japan import so much?
Japan is the largest holder of US debt in the world.
When the BOJ raises rates:
Capital tends to repatriate to Japan
Liquidity in dollars decreases
Risk assets (stocks and crypto) feel the pressure
An early signal was already seen on November 30, when only the expectations of a rise pushed BTC to $83K, eliminating more than $200 billion from the crypto market.
Second Blow: Mining Pressure from China
At the same time, another tangible factor emerges.
According to analysts, China intensified mining repression in regions like Xinjiang:
~400,000 miners disconnected
Hashrate −8%
What is the immediate consequence?
Lower revenues for miners
Forced sales of BTC to cover costs
Actual selling pressure, not speculative
This is not narrative.
It is market mechanics.
The Key: Volatility Is Not Weakness
What many overlook:
This is not a demand crisis.
It is a temporary shock of supply and liquidity.
The cycle is usually the same:
1. Macro or regulatory adjustment
2. Hashrate drop / selling pressure
3. Price volatility
4. Network adaptation
5. Continuation of the Bitcoin cycle
It has happened before.
And Bitcoin has absorbed it every time.
Conclusion
Yes, the short term can be uncomfortable.
Yes, an additional correction is possible.
But structurally there is no break.
Bitcoin does not collapse due to rate hikes or regional repressions.
It integrates, digests, and moves forward.
📌 Volatility is the toll. It is not the destination.
#BTC #MacroCryptoSignals #BoJ #MarketVolatility #OnChainDataInsights $BTC
