#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析
The Bank of Japan is almost certain to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% this Thursday and Friday (December 18-19), and the market has fully anticipated this.
Core Logic: Interest rate hikes will raise the cost of yen and boost the exchange rate, forcing a large number of arbitrage trades of "borrowing yen to buy crypto assets" to close out, which may lead to capital outflows.
Historical Review: In the past three instances of interest rate hikes in Japan, Bitcoin experienced about a 30% pullback within 4-6 weeks. Some analysts believe that this time it may face a short-term decline of 15-25%, testing the support at $80,000 to $85,000.
My Different Perspective: There is no need to panic excessively.
1. Expectations have been digested: The market has reached a 98% expectation for this rate hike, and the impact may have already been reflected in advance.
2. Market structure has changed: The size of the crypto market is no longer what it used to be, and the influence of Japanese capital has relatively weakened.
3. The U.S. is "injecting liquidity": The Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, forming a pattern of "U.S. easing and Japan tightening", resulting in a complex liquidity environment that may not necessarily tighten unidirectionally.
4. Seasonal patterns: Historical data shows that the probability of market increases around Christmas is relatively high, which may provide a buffer.
Strategic Recommendations:
· Short-term traders: Control leverage and avoid extreme volatility before and after the decision.
· Long-term investors: Can ignore short-term noise or view pullbacks as opportunities for phased positioning.
Stay calm and do not let a single emotion dominate. The interest rate hike in Japan is just one of many variables in the market and not a decisive factor.
Pay attention to actual changes in market liquidity and respond rationally.
Welcome to the Binance 🎉('C～o～n～ a～n')🎉 community for more in-depth analysis.
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