#巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #加密市场观察 The future policy direction of the Federal Reserve may undergo dramatic changes. Trump recently publicly stated that former board member Kevin Walsh is his top choice for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, predicting that market bets on his election probability are rising rapidly. If he takes office, his impact on the cryptocurrency market may far exceed that of the current chairman Powell.
His core policy proposals can be summarized in two points:
1. "Interest rate cuts" and "balance sheet reduction" simultaneously: aimed at stimulating the economy while withdrawing excess liquidity, the "cheap funds" actually obtained by the market may fall short of expectations.
2. A strong stance against inflation: believes the root of inflation lies in the Federal Reserve's previous overly accommodative policies, thus holding a "zero tolerance" attitude towards rising prices, and future policy shifts could be extremely swift.
📈 Impact on the cryptocurrency market:
· Short term: The inclination to cut interest rates may be interpreted by the market as a positive signal, potentially driving an emotional rebound.
· Long term: High vigilance is required. Its "hawkish" nature and intention to reduce the balance sheet mean that liquidity provision will be more restrained, and it is extremely sensitive to inflation data, with a higher risk of tightening policies.
🛡️ Investor response recommendations:
· Rationally view the "interest rate cut" signal, avoiding blind chasing of highs.
· Strictly control leverage to guard against severe volatility caused by policy expectation swings.
· Pay attention to real liquidity data such as the increase in on-chain stablecoins.
· During policy-sensitive periods, prioritize holding spot assets to reduce contract risks.
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