The Payroll was released.
The market reacted.
And most are looking in the wrong place.
If you think this data alone defines the next market movement, you are trading the noise — not the scenario.
Why was today's Payroll important?
Why does this Payroll matter more than others?
As is already known by those who follow me, today the Payroll data was released, one of the most relevant reports for the Federal Reserve in conducting monetary policy — especially in the decision to maintain, cut, or postpone cuts in interest rates.
But after all, what do interest rates have to do with you — and with the market?
Simply put: high interest rates increase risk aversion.
When the investor achieves a reasonable return on assets considered 'risk-free', such as government bonds, the incentive to allocate capital to volatile assets decreases. Why take risks if the safe return is already sufficient?
The relationship between Payroll and interest rates works like this: if employment data shows economic warming, consumption tends to grow. This increase in demand can pressure inflation if supply does not keep up, forcing central banks to maintain or raise interest rates to cool the economy.
On the other hand, signs of slowing in the labor market reduce this inflation risk and open space for lower interest rates.
In summary:
Heated economy → strong demand → inflation risk → high interest rates → greater risk aversion
Economy slowing down → lower demand → lower inflation pressure → lower interest rates → lower risk aversion
Got it?
Did the market expect a policy change or just confirmation of a trend?
The market did not expect an immediate policy change, but rather a confirmation of a trend.
Yesterday it was already possible to observe defensive movements, which helps explain the sudden drop that brought BTC close to the $85,000 region. At first glance, this seems contradictory, as there was a recent interest rate cut — something that, in theory, would be positive for risk assets.
So why did Bitcoin not rise? And why did it fall more than 3% in a few hours?
Because the market does not react only to the decision, but mainly to the rhetoric.
As I pointed out earlier, although the Fed cut interest rates, Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone. He explicitly mentioned:
The distortion of data caused by the 43-day government shutdown;
The uncertainty regarding the reliability of current Payroll;
The need to wait for new data before any new movement.
In light of this, the big players did what is expected:
They protected profits after a strong prior rise;
They released liquidity, maintaining flexibility to reposition after the data.
Was there any data that contradicts the positive headline?
Yes — and that helps explain the defensive behavior of the market.
The problem was not just the headline number, but the asymmetric risk involved. Before the release, the market knew exactly what it did not want to see:
Jobs far above expectations;
Strong acceleration of wages;
Rapid decline in the unemployment rate.
Any combination of these factors would reinforce the thesis of persistent inflation and make new rate cuts difficult. In light of this risk, many participants preferred to reduce exposure before the release — especially after a clearly cautious speech from the Fed.
Objective reading of the report
Did the headline (jobs created) come in above or below expectations?
The headline number came in above the consensus (64,000 with an expectation of 50,000), which at first glance could be interpreted as positive for the economy.
However, in isolation, this data does not change the trajectory of monetary policy. The Fed analyzes trends, not a single point.
Did the unemployment rate rise, fall, or remain stable?
The unemployment rate showed a marginal rise, a movement that, by itself, does not indicate a sharp deterioration in the labor market.
Such variation can reflect:
Statistical adjustments;
Increase in labor force participation;
Temporary noise in the data.
The key point is that there was no extreme movement in either direction.
Was there data that contradicts the headline?
Yes. Secondary indicators, such as wages and revisions of previous months, reinforce the reading of gradual deceleration, not overheating.
This supports the thesis that the labor market remains resilient, but gradually loses momentum.
Quality and reliability of data
Are there factors that distort this report? Has the Fed already signaled caution?
Yes. Although official data tends to be reliable, this specific report carries a larger margin of error than normal.
The 43-day government shutdown impacted the collection and processing of data — something publicly acknowledged by Jerome Powell himself. He stated that this Payroll should be interpreted with additional skepticism, reducing its relative weight in decision-making.
Is this data decisive or part of a series?
It is clearly part of a series.
This does not mean it will be ignored, but rather that:
Does not alone define monetary policy;
Will be confronted with future data;
Has less weight than it would in a normal context.
Payroll is important, but does not act in isolation.
Fed's interpretation
Does this report force the Fed to act? Does it change anything for the next meeting? Does it alter expectations for cuts?
No. The report does not force any immediate action.
The consensus among analysts is that:
A new cut in January 2026 is unlikely;
The Fed should wait for additional data, especially the next Payroll;
The FOMC of February 2026 will be the first real point of reassessment.
As Kay Haigh highlighted, the most sensible move at this moment is to wait for confirmation, not to react hastily.
Current data do not force the Fed to cut or raise rates. They merely reinforce the already adopted cautious stance.
Conclusion
This Payroll does not change the game, but adjusts the tone.
It confirms a scenario of:
Labor market still resilient;
Gradual deceleration;
Fed dependent on data, but aware of current distortions.
The most common error of the market is trying to extract definitive decisions from a single report.
This cycle — both in macro and in Bitcoin — is slower, more technical, and less emotional.
And understanding this makes all the difference between reacting to noise...
or interpreting the signal correctly.
