12.17 XAU Intraday
The Federal Reserve's December interest rate cut has landed, and the purchase of 40 billion in government bonds has started, with liquidity easing directly lowering the dollar; the unemployment rate in the United States surged to 4.6% in November, cooling the labor market and strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2026; the global central bank gold purchasing spree continues (the People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 13 consecutive months), combined with the Middle East situation that could reverse at any time, short-term corrections are merely the bulls' consolidation, so one can continue to lay out long positions.
4294 is the entry point, where there is a triple resonance of "previous high turning support + 4-hour MA20 moving average + yesterday's pullback low." When gold prices retraced to this point yesterday, the 1-hour RSI fell from overbought to the neutral zone at 50, with volume simultaneously decreasing (selling pressure was only 30% of the previous day's volume), indicating strong buying support here, which is the most comfortable "entry point" for bulls, and light positions can reduce short-term volatility risk.
4282 can be added to the position, corresponding to the convergence of the daily 5/10 moving averages, and is also the neckline of the V-shaped reversal last Thursday — when the gold price fell to 4282, it quickly rebounded over 20 points, forming a "long lower shadow" stabilization signal. Adding to the position at this time can further lower the holding cost.
4274 is the stop-loss, this point is the "trend watershed" — closely adjacent to yesterday's low of 4271, and is also the lower support of the daily-level "long-legged doji." If it breaks below 4274, it means the structure of yesterday's V-shaped reversal is invalidated, and the bullish arrangement of the daily moving averages may be broken, while the 4-hour Bollinger Bands' middle line is lost, and the short-term trend will turn from bullish to sideways. Exiting with a stop-loss is the only choice to avoid deep adjustments; positions must not be held.
Look at 4346-4363
(Entry at 4294, add at 4282, stop at 4274, look at 4346-4363)
Personal opinion, not constituting investment advice
