🚨 Is an era about to end? The "financial free lunch" that has lasted globally for thirty years—the yen arbitrage trading—is being personally ended by the Bank of Japan!
For the past thirty years, global capital has borrowed yen at nearly zero cost, sweeping through U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and Bitcoin. This week (December 19), the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates to 0.75% (a 30-year high) exceeds 97%, and the door to "zero-cost funding" will slam shut.
The historical bloodbath is still fresh in memory:
· March 2024 Japan interest rate hike → Bitcoin fell 23%
· July 2024 Japan interest rate hike → Bitcoin fell 26%
· January 2025 Japan interest rate hike → Bitcoin fell 31%
What’s even more terrifying this time is that the role of the Bank of Japan has shifted from "ultimate buyer" to "beginning seller," planning to sell its massive ETF holdings starting next January. This means that the valve of global liquidity is being tightened in both directions.
All assets reliant on cheap yen (including Bitcoin) will see financing costs jump from 0% and continue to rise. A "century-long liquidation" sweeping through global leverage may have already begun.
Your only advice: fasten your seatbelt and double-check every position you hold. Before the market panic is fully released, cash and patience are your strongest shields.
Do you think this time it’s the abyss of crisis, or the starting point of a golden pit after all the bad news is out?
#ETH走势分析 #美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #ETH #BTC
