12.17 UKOIL Intraday
OPEC+ November production cut execution rate exceeded 103% (Saudi Arabia voluntarily extended the reduction of 1 million barrels/day until Q1 2026, Russia reduced production by 500,000 barrels/day), global crude oil supply continues to tighten; the situation in the Red Sea escalates, Houthi forces have attacked 3 merchant ships this week, increasing shipping risks in the Suez Canal, raising geopolitical premiums; US API crude oil inventory data shows that inventory decreased by 2.3 million barrels last week (expected decrease of 1.5 million barrels), demand side marginally warmed; coupled with the US dollar index breaking through key support, the attractiveness of crude oil priced in dollars increases, thus long positions can be arranged.
59.3 entry: this level is the "4-hour MA20 moving average (+ previous fluctuation platform upper edge + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level" triple resonance point. Yesterday, when oil prices retraced to this level, the 1-hour RSI fell from overbought (75) to the neutral zone of 52, and trading volume simultaneously decreased (selling pressure was only 25% of the previous day’s volume), indicating strong buying support here—light positions can take advantage of the previous stabilization inertia, reducing short-term fluctuation risk.
59.0 add position, this corresponds to the daily 5-day moving average support, and is also the lower edge of the "1-hour upward trend line." This is a technical verification point for the previous "pullback not breaking the 5-day moving average = continuation of bullish trend," adding positions can further lower holding costs.
Defense at 58.8, this level is the key support of the 4-hour Bollinger band middle track. If it falls below 58.8, it means the lower edge of the "fluctuating upward channel" is lost, the daily 5-day moving average is effectively broken, and the previous support zone may become ineffective, one should decisively cut losses and exit.
Look at 60.4-61.0
(59.3 entry, 59.0 add, 58.8 defense, look at 60.4-61.0)
Personal opinion, not constituting investment operation
