The U.S. employment data for November presents a rare "ice and fire" phenomenon, with non-farm jobs increasing by 64,000, significantly higher than the market expectation of 50,000, successfully reversing the substantial reduction of 105,000 jobs in October. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, reaching the highest level since September 2021. The U.S. dollar index briefly fell to a two-month low, while gold prices fluctuated and held around the 4300 mark. Experts predict that if gold closes above $4,400 in 2025, it could rise to between $4,859 and $5,590 in 2026.

On December 16, the spot gold price fluctuated at a high level, dipping to around $4,272 during the day but quickly rebounding to $4,335, ultimately closing at $4,302, basically flat. This volatility is not coincidental, but rather influenced by multiple factors such as U.S. employment data, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Federal Reserve policy. Data shows that U.S. job growth rebounded in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a four-year high of 4.6%, which not only strengthened market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve but also pushed the dollar index to a two-month low, making gold more attractive to overseas buyers. Meanwhile, the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict provide potential safe-haven support for gold. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming CPI and PCE data, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as these factors will collectively shape the short-term trend of gold. On Wednesday (December 17), during the Asian market's early session, spot gold fluctuated narrowly, currently trading around $4,306 per ounce.

In summarizing these factors, we can see that the gold market is at a delicate balance point: the rebound in U.S. employment data offers some stability, but the rising unemployment rate and weak economic indicators strengthen rate cut expectations; while there is a glimmer of peace in geopolitical risks, ongoing conflicts continue to support safe-haven demand. Experts predict that if gold closes above $4,400 in 2025, it could rise to between $4,859 and $5,590 in 2026, with silver potentially retesting the $50 mark. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve movements to avoid blindly chasing highs, but in the long run, low interest rates and global uncertainty will continue to support gold's upward potential. Additionally, attention should be paid to speeches from Federal Reserve officials on this trading day.