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Silver Intraday Market Analysis: Bulls Strong, Key Position Determines Direction
On the four-hour chart, silver has strongly risen above the upper Bollinger Band, with the MACD red bars continuing to expand, indicating strong bullish momentum and a clear continuation of the upward trend.
The 66.5 level serves as a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears; it is both a previous high resistance level and a key boundary for strength. If the bulls strongly break through, the upward space is expected to aim directly at the 70 mark; if it encounters resistance and falls back, attention must be paid to the support strength at the day's low of 63.6.
Operational Advice If it retraces to the 64.5-65 range, decisively position multiple orders in batches! The first target aims at 66.5, and after breaking through, one can look towards 68!
After the non-farm payroll data was released last night, the gold price briefly surged above 4330 due to the significantly positive impact of the unemployment rate, but soon fell back under pressure, overall maintaining a daily high volatility range between 4270 and 4345. The market is currently focused on the CPI data to be released tomorrow, and it is expected that gold will continue to maintain a consolidation trend before this. From the four-hour chart, the highs and lows of the gold price are gradually converging, forming a triangular consolidation pattern, with the volatility range continuing to narrow. The short-term trend is slightly strong but has not broken out of the range. Key resistance above is in the 4330-4340 area, while support below is focused on the 4270-4280 line. The suggested operation is to primarily short on rebounds, with supplementary longs on pullbacks, buying high and selling low within the range.
Short gold near 4338-4340, with a target around 4310-4290; if it breaks, watch for 4280.
Buy gold in batches near 4280-4285, with a target around 4300-4310; if it breaks, watch for 4320.
With the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision approaching, fluctuations in the gold and silver market have become a likely event. On December 17, data from Jinshi News indicated that Masayoshi Amamiya, former deputy governor of the Bank of Japan and a member of the government group, stated that the Bank of Japan should avoid raising interest rates too early and excessively adjusting monetary support based on neutral interest rate levels. This statement sets a key tone for the upcoming interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan, making the market outlook for gold and silver clearer, with fluctuations likely becoming the mainstream pattern before and after the decision is made. From the perspective of the Bank of Japan's policy guidance, if Masayoshi Amamiya's views hold significant reference value. As the former deputy governor of the central bank and a member of the government group, his statements often align closely with the policy tendencies within the central bank. This suggests that in this interest rate decision, the Bank of Japan is likely to continue its accommodative monetary policy stance, even if it takes action to raise interest rates, it will maintain a moderate posture. This policy choice will directly cause a chain reaction on the yen exchange rate and the dollar index: the yen is unlikely to gain strong support due to easing expectations, which will indirectly drive the dollar index higher, an important external factor affecting gold and silver prices.
The escalation of geopolitical tensions has boosted market demand for safe-haven assets, driving the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver to rise across the board. Among them, spot silver has climbed above $66 per ounce, reaching a historic high; the price of gold has rebounded to above $4,330, just a step away from last October's historical peak; platinum has also risen for the fifth consecutive trading day, reaching its highest level since 2011.
Meanwhile, the latest U.S. employment data shows that while the labor market is cooling, it has not deteriorated sharply. This situation has led traders to reduce bets on a recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, propelling the dollar index to rise across the board. Currently, market focus has shifted to the upcoming inflation data to seek clearer clues about monetary policy direction.
In terms of operational strategy, if prices rebound to the range of 65.20-65.9 and show significant signs of stagnation, consideration can be given to short positions, with a stop loss set above 65, and a short-term target looking towards the vicinity of 63.50-63.00.
In recent days, the gold market has been refreshing new highs one after another. In such a clearly strong unilateral trend, insisting on shorting is really just going against your own wallet, and it's completely unnecessary.
Currently, this wave of adjustment is basically in place, with around 4325 being a relatively ideal position to go long. The price has now steadily broken through the previous high of 4335, and the space ahead will certainly not be limited to just this point.
Everyone has been watching the trends in recent days; the volatility and gains have been quite exaggerated. Such a level of market activity cannot just come to a sudden halt. Today, we are looking at 4360 in the short term, going with the trend is much more solid than going against it. #黄金
(Investment carries risks, market entry requires caution, all layouts are made in advance or at current price, avoid any hindsight behavior, followers must strictly set stop-loss and control position risk)
The U.S. employment data for November presents a rare "ice and fire" phenomenon, with non-farm jobs increasing by 64,000, significantly higher than the market expectation of 50,000, successfully reversing the substantial reduction of 105,000 jobs in October. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, reaching the highest level since September 2021. The U.S. dollar index briefly fell to a two-month low, while gold prices fluctuated and held around the 4300 mark. Experts predict that if gold closes above $4,400 in 2025, it could rise to between $4,859 and $5,590 in 2026.
On December 16, the spot gold price fluctuated at a high level, dipping to around $4,272 during the day but quickly rebounding to $4,335, ultimately closing at $4,302, basically flat. This volatility is not coincidental, but rather influenced by multiple factors such as U.S. employment data, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Federal Reserve policy. Data shows that U.S. job growth rebounded in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a four-year high of 4.6%, which not only strengthened market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve but also pushed the dollar index to a two-month low, making gold more attractive to overseas buyers. Meanwhile, the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict provide potential safe-haven support for gold. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming CPI and PCE data, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as these factors will collectively shape the short-term trend of gold. On Wednesday (December 17), during the Asian market's early session, spot gold fluctuated narrowly, currently trading around $4,306 per ounce.
In summarizing these factors, we can see that the gold market is at a delicate balance point: the rebound in U.S. employment data offers some stability, but the rising unemployment rate and weak economic indicators strengthen rate cut expectations; while there is a glimmer of peace in geopolitical risks, ongoing conflicts continue to support safe-haven demand. Experts predict that if gold closes above $4,400 in 2025, it could rise to between $4,859 and $5,590 in 2026, with silver potentially retesting the $50 mark. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve movements to avoid blindly chasing highs, but in the long run, low interest rates and global uncertainty will continue to support gold's upward potential. Additionally, attention should be paid to speeches from Federal Reserve officials on this trading day.
The long-term support from industrial demand for silver and the loose financial attributes of the Federal Reserve form a dual driving force. The resilient performance of silver during significant declines in gold confirms the determination of bullish capital in silver, with market sentiment leaning towards 'bullish without guessing the top'; The bullish trend that began from the low point of 60.79 remains unchanged, with the current price at 65.29 firmly standing at the key level of 65. The short-term support is at 63.2, and the strong support zone is between 60-61. As long as the support level is not broken, the upward momentum continues; The 1-hour chart indicators show active capital accumulation around 63.5, with MACD having significantly expanded red bars above the zero axis, and the MA moving averages presenting a steep bullish arrangement, confirming that bullish momentum is still being strongly released.
① 15:00 UK November CPI Monthly Rate ② 15:00 UK November Retail Price Index Monthly Rate ③ 17:00 Germany December IFO Business Climate Index ④ 18:00 Eurozone November CPI Year-on-Year Final Value ⑤ 18:00 Eurozone November CPI Monthly Rate Final Value ⑥ 19:00 UK December CBI Industrial Orders Balance ⑦ 21:15 Federal Reserve Governor Waller Speaks ⑧ 22:05 Federal Reserve Williams Delivers Remarks at Meeting ⑨ 23:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks for the Week Ending December 12 ⑩ 23:30 US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks for the Week Ending December 12 ⑪ 23:30 US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks for the Week Ending December 12
Wednesday, December 17, gold rebounds from the bottom and continues to look bullish
Yesterday, gold initially declined and then rose, with the price rebounding after falling to $4271 per ounce. Influenced by non-farm employment data, the price rose to around $4334 before facing pressure and retreating, currently at the $4314 level. Yesterday, I suggested going long on gold at $4280 with a target of $4350, which resulted in a $54 increase. Currently, the pullback is relatively small, and the oscillation continues to trend upwards.
From the current 4-hour trend, gold has made a second move down after a rebound, then a large bullish candle recovers all previous losses. After a slight pullback, it once again closed bullish. The downward movement has been challenging to sustain, and the overall structure still leans towards a bullish pattern. Therefore, in an upward trend, the pullback that cannot sustain should only be viewed as a correction, so in strong phases, pullbacks are considered long opportunities.
Gold Asian session trading strategy: go long at 4300-4290, with a stop-loss at 4270. Target to focus on the 4350-4380 range.
Note: The above ideas are personal opinions, and all are welcome to discuss! Investment carries risks; please proceed with caution! #黄金
After a week of doing it, do you still not understand its value? Today's news provides a clear direction, right? The pullback is an opportunity to act!
Non-farm alert sounded: gold under pressure at high levels, data trends may be an 'enticement trap'.
This non-farm data must be approached with caution, as there are two core logics that directly target risk: Firstly, the data is the 'fuse' of market volatility. The performance of non-farm payrolls directly influences expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts; any values that deviate from expectations will be magnified infinitely by the market, triggering intense capital speculation. Secondly, gold prices are standing on the 'edge of a cliff'. Current gold prices are hovering at historical highs, and market sentiment is as tense as a drawn bowstring, extremely fragile. Whether the data is positive or negative, it could become the last straw that breaks the market's back—either triggering profit-taking by bulls or igniting a concentrated sell-off by bears, with short-term volatility likely to far exceed normal levels.
The Federal Reserve's easing cycle sets the tone for the financial properties of silver, with a dual support from the global industrial demand recovery and geopolitical risk aversion. Non-farm payrolls only bring short-term fluctuations, and the pullback triggered by profit-taking and hawkish divergence is just an interlude; the low-level capital support is clear, accumulating momentum for the bulls' subsequent advances; The hourly chart shows a complete rebound trend starting from 60.79, the current price of 62.93 is in a consolidation around the previous high of 64.65, which is a power accumulation and not a trend reversal, and the medium to long-term upward channel remains intact; The hourly chart indicators show active capital support in the 62.0-63.0 range, MACD has gradually expanded the red bars after a golden cross below the zero axis, and although MA moving averages are temporarily sticky, they overall maintain a bullish arrangement tendency, confirming the technical logic of power accumulation before the upward attack.
On December 16, will the gold double top face resistance and continue to rise after an intraday pullback! Even if you chose other teachers due to a momentary impulse, one day you will become a professional trader, and one day you will achieve your goals and realize your dreams. Deep feelings are not as good as a long companionship, and great love requires no words. Choosing is just the beginning, and efforts never cease! The starlight does not ask about the travelers, and time does not disappoint those who are determined. May you and I work together in the gold market, turning and shifting, to create brilliance together! Fundamentals Yesterday, after the opening of gold, it was driven by last week's news, and gold rose all the way up to 4350 USD/ounce before the European market opened. Later, under the pressure from last Friday's high, the gold price significantly retraced, breaking down the key point of 4300 USD/ounce, with a minimum drop to 4285 USD/ounce before a slight rebound, finally closing at 4305 USD/ounce. Today's opening price is 4307 USD/ounce, and the Asian session continues yesterday's downward trend, with the current gold price reported at 4277 USD/ounce. Technical Analysis From the hourly chart perspective, gold once again touches near the 4265 support, and an M-top pattern has formed after the double top. Although the emergence of a pattern does not necessarily lead to extreme market conditions, it allows us to make corresponding adjustments to market dynamics. In the evening, if during the European session, gold breaks through the 4265 support, I personally feel that there is a possibility for gold to test around 4185. If it cannot break through the 4265 support, it will continue to rise and attempt to reach the range of 4365-4385 above! Note: The article is time-sensitive, and the market changes rapidly. Do not operate blindly. The above is purely personal sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries risks, and profits and losses are at your own risk!