Fundamentals and Catalysts: FET (Artificial Superintelligence Alliance) price is $0.2179, FDV is $591 million, leading project in AI narrative. Although there are no explosive news recently, social media shows the ecosystem continues to expand, wallet integration promotion combined with token burning mechanism, and community sentiment is bullish. The key lies in the on-chain data and derivatives showing a clear divergence, providing an oversold rebound window.
Technical Analysis: 1-hour RSI 37, 4-hour RSI 35, daily RSI 37 are all deeply oversold, with prices closely touching the lower Bollinger Band at 0.216 (1-hour), 0.213 (4-hour), 0.215 (daily) forming a triple support resonance area. MACD histogram shows 1-hour -0.00025, 4-hour -0.00092, daily -0.00116 are consistently negative, but the magnitude of the negative values is starting to narrow, indicating a depletion of downward momentum. All time frames have prices below EMA12/26/SMA50, confirming an oversold state. ADX indicators show 1-hour 18, 4-hour 19, daily 13, indicating extremely weak trends, suggesting a reversal window is approaching. Although the OBV trading volume is negative, it has not accelerated downward, and selling pressure is weakening.
Derivatives data: Funding rate -0.00086 is negative, short positions pay long positions, which is a golden signal for going long—market is bearish but has not formed a stampede. 24-hour open interest decreased by 2.35%, indicating that leveraged long positions are being stopped out, lightening the chips. Liquidation data shows a $62,000 liquidation in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $56,000 and shorts only $6,000, indicating that long positions have been sufficiently cleaned out. Importantly, the accumulation of $916,000 in long position liquidations below $0.217 is concentrated at $0.196; if the price rebounds, the short squeeze effect can be significant. 24-hour perpetual trading volume is $88 million, open interest is $55 million, liquidity is moderate, with slippage of about 0.5% for $100,000 orders.
On-chain signals: On December 16, there was a net outflow of 1.76 million FET from exchanges, and on December 15, a net outflow of 2.98 million FET, with a total outflow exceeding 4.7 million FET over two days, valued at over $1 million at $0.22, meeting the accumulation criteria for whales. Exchange reserves decreased from 455 million on December 10 to 447 million on December 16, continuously decreasing to reduce selling pressure. Holder concentration is moderate at 48.41%, with Binance holding 10.68%, posing no extreme control risk.
Trading strategy: Use 5x leverage to go long. Entry price $0.216-$0.220, prioritize placing limit orders in the range of $0.217-$0.218, as this area is a dense support at the lower Bollinger band and close to the liquidation accumulation zone. The primary target is $0.231 (4-hour EMA26 resistance), corresponding to a 6.5% increase, with 5x leverage yielding a 32.5% profit. The second target is $0.243 (daily Bollinger middle band), corresponding to an 11.5% increase. Stop loss is set at $0.210, which is about 3% below the daily Bollinger lower band at $0.215, representing a 3.6% drawdown from the entry price, resulting in an actual account loss of 18% with 5x leverage, which is conservatively reasonable. Holding time is 36-48 hours, with the strategy focusing on holding during negative funding rate periods to receive subsidies while waiting for RSI to recover above 50 and MACD golden cross confirmation. If the price rebounds to $0.222 and breaks above the 1-hour EMA12, increase the position to 7x leverage to chase the $0.243 target. Need to monitor whether the outflow on-chain continues; if it turns to inflow, immediate profit-taking is required. $FET #加密市场观察
