2025.12.17 Market Analysis

At this position, many people are likely looking to enter the market and buy the dip based on the bottom structure. The current trend indeed shows short-term bullish signals, but I still advise everyone to maintain rational and independent thinking. The demand at this position is very likely only capable of sustaining a rebound for the market, not reversing it. If the rebound reaches above around 97000, it is still a position to consider entering as a medium-term bearish.

The reasons mainly include two points:

Trend equals reversal and continuation. Generally, once a trend is formed, it is difficult to change. In a downtrend, all short-term stops may be intermediate adjustments in the decline.

Currently, since the low point on November 21 to now, the adjustment time for the market is less than a month. After a previous decline of nearly 36%, the probability of such an adjustment supporting a reversal for the market is very low.

Although we have witnessed nearly two months of bearish trends, and the previous movements indeed met our expectations of a crash, it is still not the stage we consider buying the dip, and entering at this position might very well be buying halfway up the mountain!