2025.12.18 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

Good afternoon, brothers. Some have asked why the market rose yesterday and then fell again. In fact, yesterday's analysis already concluded: the closer we get to the release of the CPI data and Japan's interest rate hike, the more the market's panic will escalate.

It may drop below $85000. The CPI will be released tonight at 21:30, and after the Bank of Japan announces the interest rate hike tomorrow, the short-term outlook is uncertain and depends on the CPI data.

If the CPI is lower than expected, it will be favorable for interest rate cuts. However, that does not mean a reversal; the weekly trend still looks bearish.

After more than a decade of unrestrained money printing, the Federal Reserve has fallen into an inescapable deadlock: lowering interest rates will trigger vicious inflation, while maintaining high rates may lead to deflationary collapse.

As we mentioned before, Trump is preparing for the midterm elections in November next year, so he will find ways to lower prices and interest rates; this is an inevitable trend.

In addition, the BTC ancient whales and institutions have exchanged nearly 70% of their BTC holdings.

In the long run, BTC is still at a suitable price; in a volatile market, buy on the dip instead of buying on the rise, and it's fine to dollar-cost average daily.

Today, Stable, MON, Bera, and these altcoins have all fallen sharply. The public chain narrative has become unsustainable due to fierce competition; there are hundreds of public chains that don't even have 100 users. The world does not need that many public chains; having ETH, BNB, and SOL is sufficient, so most altcoins are trending towards zero.

It is recommended to primarily hold BTC, avoid panic selling at the bottom due to emotional influences, and keep some cash on hand to buy the dip when a black swan event occurs. The best time to enter the market is when there is widespread panic.

This analysis is for friendly reference only. Adults must take responsibility for their own decisions. Investing involves risks, so please do not act impulsively; think independently and make judgments!