Don't slide away! Friends holding ETH, are you feeling anxious about this frustrating trend today? This morning you were hoping for a takeoff, but this afternoon, after a rise of just enough for a cup of milk tea, it started to drop again. Just as you were about to curse “scumbag coin,” you remembered tonight's big non-farm payroll. This operation feels a lot like that classmate who tells you before an exam, “This time will definitely be easy,” always leaving you feeling uneasy.
Let me be clear, today's ETH trend is completely within the framework of my morning predictions. I'm not bragging; this kind of plot where “you get candy during the day and fall into a big pit at night” has been played out at least ten times before major data releases. That slow rebound after the market opened this morning looked like it was giving you hope, but in reality, it was the main forces “luring in buyers for trial.” After all, no one wants to dump their chips cheap before big news comes out; they raise the price first to let retail investors take a bit, then they can crash the market later with more space. This is all an old routine of the market.
Speaking of this, I must pour a bucket of cold water on everyone (which is also useful information): The impact of the big non-farm payroll data on the cryptocurrency market is essentially transmitted through US dollar liquidity. If the data exceeds expectations, it implies that the interest rate hike expectations in the United States may heat up, leading to a stronger dollar, making it easier for funds to withdraw from the high-risk cryptocurrency sector, with mainstream assets like ETH being the first to be affected; but if the data falls short of expectations, it might instead bring a wave of fund inflows. However, the key point is that recently the correlation of ETH has weakened, especially with the gradual maturity of the staking ecosystem after the merge, and some long-term funds have already locked in, which will cushion the extent of any crash, and it won't be like last year when it 'plummeted' in one go.
I know that some people are already ready with their 'cut loss button', while others are eager to buy the dip. My suggestion is: for those with light positions, don't panic; if the drop exceeds 5% tonight, you might consider adding a small position, after all, the current valuation isn't considered high; for those with heavy positions, don't rush to cut losses, first set a stop-loss line, and only act if it truly breaks critical support levels. Remember, in the cryptocurrency market, 'surviving' is a thousand times more important than 'making quick money', don't let short-term fluctuations lead you by the nose.
To be honest, every time before a big market movement, there are always people asking me, 'Can you give me a sure signal?' But where is there absolute certainty in the market? What I can do is share the patterns I have summarized from years of experience and the details I monitor in real-time, without reservation. As soon as the big non-farm payroll data is released tonight, I will update the trading strategy in the comments section immediately, regardless of whether the market goes up or down, I will support everyone together.
Friends who find this analysis useful, please give a follow and a like. Your support is the motivation for me to stay up late monitoring the market and analyzing data. Now, type 'watching the market tonight' in the comment section, and let's wait for the data and make decisions together, it's better to warm together than to be anxious alone, follow me@Square-Creator-0a44f19a1d7d9 #BinanceABCs $BTC
