Brothers staring at the ETH one-hour chart, raise your hands! Is the screen about to be stared out, with the price pinned at 2942 and not budging? Long positions fear standing guard, while short positions fear missing out, and the sweat in your palms has soaked the phone case?
Don't panic, Lao Qin has been in the crypto circle for five years, has seen the waterfall at three in the morning, and has caught the rebound at dawn. Today we won't play around, I'll break down the technical aspects and reveal the movements of the whales to give you an actionable logic that you can directly implement.
First, look at the technical aspects: there is a 'small turning point' hidden in the downtrend.
Many newcomers panic when they see 'overall decline,' but the market is like the weather; the big trend is the rainy season, but that doesn't mean the sun won't come out. Looking at the one-hour chart, there are only two core signals:
Rebound momentum has emerged: the two yellow and white lines in the MACD indicator have completed a golden cross below the zero axis and are slowly climbing up. It’s like pressing half the gas pedal while driving; although not at full speed, there is already some momentum forward.
Key points highlighted: looking upwards, 3014 is the first 'roadblock'; if this position cannot be surpassed, the rebound will have no chance; a harder obstacle is at 3100, and it is almost impossible to chew it down in the short term. Looking down, 2879 is the first line of defense; if it holds, there is room for maneuver; if it breaks, we must directly look at 2803 as the 'real bottom,' which is when the position will be tested.
To summarize: the short-term is a 'weak rebound' market; you can have a sip of soup but don’t expect to gnaw on big meat; the medium to long-term bearish trend hasn’t changed; if you want to catch the bottom, wait a bit longer, now is not the time.
Digging into the news: whales 'quarreling' reveal market divergence.
The entanglement of the market is all hidden in the actions of whales. Today, the two most explosive pieces of news in the circle just happen to be 'reverse operations':
One is a well-known 'constant winner' address in the circle, pension-usdt.eth. This guy has not missed in his last 12 operations; today he suddenly closed his Bitcoin long position and immediately opened a short position of 25,000 ETH, totaling about 74 million dollars. This operation is like 'the weather forecast says it’s going to rain, so immediately stock up on umbrellas,' clearly indicating a bearish outlook on the short-term market.
On the other hand, the institution BitMine is quietly 'sweeping up' and has silently acquired 48,000 ETH. On one side, a star whale is dumping shorts, while on the other, the institution is secretly accumulating; this scene resembles two big shots arm wrestling at the negotiation table, indicating that the market divergence is currently at its peak, and the fluctuations are definitely not over.
Lao Qin's unique perspective: today follows the 'rise first, adjust later' script.
Combining technical analysis and whale movements, I draw a 'roadmap' for today's ETH: in the morning, it will first surge upwards with the momentum of the MACD golden cross, aiming for the resistance level of 3014, but don't expect to rush to 3100 in one go; that would be like asking someone who just regained their strength to run a marathon, which is unrealistic.
If it surges to around 3014 and starts to 'gasp'—for example, if the price stagnates or trading volume decreases—that would be a signal to turn downwards, first testing the support at 2879. If luck runs out, it might even crash down to around 2803. This kind of 'rebound to test pressure then fall back' trend is the most probable outcome under the current divergence market.
Customized advice for different players.
Market fluctuations are most detrimental to retail investors; either chasing highs or cutting losses at the floor. Lao Qin categorizes for everyone based on position and directly states what to do:
Light position players: You can try a small long near 2950, aiming for 3014; once you hit the target, run away, don't be greedy! This operation is like guerrilla warfare; grab a handful and retreat, never fall in love with the fight.
For those observing with empty positions: don't chase longs now! Wait for a rebound near 3014 before considering opening shorts, set a stop-loss at 3050, and initially target 2879. This way, the risk is controllable and much more reliable than blind guessing.
For those with positions trapped: keep an eye on 2952 as a dividing line. If it breaks, directly stop-loss; don't stubbornly wait for a 'miracle,' as surprises are the norm in the crypto world.
Lao Qin wants to say something from the heart: in a fluctuating market, surviving is more important than making money. Don't let the ups and downs of the market dictate your emotions, and don't believe those '100% guaranteed profit' lies.
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