Woken up at three in the morning by fans' panic messages: "Teacher! The yen interest rate hike is coming, should I clear my position?" I flipped through the K-line chart and almost laughed out loud, this batch of retail investors still hasn't seen through the tricks of the big players, the script for a bull market is almost written, yet they are always scared off by short-term fluctuations. Today, let's get to the essence: the yen interest rate hike is a "paper tiger," while the actions of the Federal Reserve are the real "money printing machine switch."
Let's first discuss the yen interest rate hike that is making everyone restless. The recent moves from the Bank of Japan seem like they are about to trigger a global financial nuclear bomb. But old fans know my judgment: this wave of bad news has long been chewed up and digested by the market. Since Ueda Kazuo hinted at an interest rate hike in December, the "Mrs. Watanabe" currency carry trade closing actions have not stopped, and now the capital outflow from Bitcoin ETFs is nearing its peak. To take a step back, even if the rate hike is really announced on the 19th, at most it will just be a scare tactic to the leveraged players, just like when the Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points last year, which caused a drop for half a day only to turn around and hit a new high. Remember: when bad news is exhausted, it becomes good news; those who are shouting to escape now are likely to be the potential retail investors washed out.
What really determines the market direction is the 'liquidity tap' opened by the Federal Reserve. Last week, the Federal Reserve injected $16 billion in liquidity into the market, which is just an appetizer; starting in December, a monthly Treasury bond purchase plan of $40 billion has already begun, equivalent to injecting $500 billion in 'live water' into the market each year. This level of capital injection has only been seen historically in 2020, when mainstream cryptocurrencies directly entered a doubling trend. More critically, the interest rate cut cycle has just begun; if Hasset takes the helm of the Federal Reserve, the expectations for 'significant rate cuts' will only grow stronger, and the flow of funds from low-yield assets like government bonds to the crypto market is an inevitable trend.
More reliable than macro policies is the movement of the 'smart money'; these guys never make losing trades. The latest 13F report shows that JPMorgan's holdings in Bitcoin-related ETFs have increased by 30% over the year, and Goldman Sachs has increased its position by 88%, with the market value surpassing $1.5 billion. The wealthy in the Middle East are even more direct; the Abu Dhabi Mubadala Fund has tripled its related asset holdings, making it the seventh largest shareholder of the BlackRock ETF. Even listed companies are frantically buying up, with Strategy Company purchasing nearly $1 billion in core assets over two consecutive weeks; their boss, Seller, understands the market better than we do. This capital is not here to be the 'bag holder'; they see the long-term trend.
So my conclusion is very clear: in the short term, after the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, there may be a wave of fluctuations and corrections, just like a person has to take a deep breath before running; washing away the floating capital is actually healthier. But if we extend the timeline to six months or even a year, under the threefold benefits of the Federal Reserve's easing, institutions continuously increasing their positions, and a gradually clearer regulatory environment, the long-term upward trend is more certain than my cat's love for stealing fish. Those who are now panic-selling may find themselves regretting it in a few months.
Lastly, let me say something heartfelt: the crypto market is never about who reacts faster, but who sees further. Follow me, this old-timer @帝王说币 #加密市场观察 $BTC
