男神讲趋势

In investing, I have always firmly believed in the logic of 'the strong getting stronger.' Regardless of the industry, there will ultimately be a few leading companies that occupy absolute market share, possessing stronger competitiveness, more stable profitability, and higher risk resistance. Over the past 16 years, I have consistently focused on core assets, heavily investing in leading companies across various industries, growing my initial capital of 120,000 to over 38 million today. Investing in core assets is not about following trends or speculation; it is about grasping the essence of industry development and betting on those 'winners' that can create long-term value.

In investing, many people tend to rely on 'feelings' and 'experience' to make decisions, believing they can accurately judge market trends. However, I have proven through 20 years of experience that human intuition is often unreliable, and the randomness and complexity of the market far exceed individual judgment capabilities. Since incorporating quantitative trading thinking into my investments, replacing intuition with data and models, my investment performance has become increasingly stable, with the initial capital of 80,000 growing to over 40 million. Quantitative trading thinking is not a tool for trickery, but a rational investment logic that provides data support for each of my operations, avoiding blind decision-making.

Investing is like driving a car. To reach your destination safely, you need not only strong power but also a reliable braking system. In my 22 years of investing, 'strict stop-loss and take-profit' has been my 'braking system.' It acts like a safety valve, preventing significant losses of principal while locking in substantial gains. I once watched my principal of 100,000 shrink to 30,000 because I didn't have a stop-loss; however, since establishing a stop-loss and take-profit system, my principal has grown from 30,000 to over 50 million. This ironclad rule has saved me from experiencing roller-coaster losses in my investment journey.

在投资圈摸爬滚打20年，我最大的感悟是：真正能让本金持续增长的，不是盲目追逐热点，而是深耕自己的能力圈，只赚“看得懂”的钱。曾经我因为贪心，涉足了自己完全不了解的期货市场，短短一个月就亏掉了一半本金；而在我熟悉的消费和医药赛道，却实现了本金翻数百倍的奇迹。这一亏一赚让我明白，投资的边界就是能力的边界，守住能力圈，才能守住本金，实现财富增长。
我的能力圈是在不断学习和实践中建立起来的。大学时我学的是食品科学专业，毕业后进入了快消行业工作，这让我对消费赛道有着天然的敏感度。我清楚地知道一款产品从研发、生产到销售的全流程，也能通过终端调研判断出一个品牌的市场认可度。2005年，我发现身边很多人开始购买某国产乳制品品牌的产品，而当时这家企业的股价还很低。凭借对行业的了解，我判断这家企业的市场份额会不断提升，果断买入，这一持有就是10年，最终获得了25倍的收益。
后来，我将能力圈拓展到了医药赛道。因为家人从事医疗行业，我有机会接触到最前沿的医疗信息，也能通过专业人士了解到一款新药的研发价值。2013年，我关注到一家专注于创新药研发的企业，当时它的一款核心药物正处于临床试验阶段，市场对其前景争议很大。但我通过家人获取了详细的临床数据，结合自己对医药行业的研究，判断这款药物一旦上市，将拥有巨大的市场空间。于是我在企业股价低迷时买入，如今这款药物已成功上市，企业股价也上涨了30多倍。
深耕能力圈并不意味着固步自封，而是要在自己熟悉的领域不断精进。为了保持对消费和医药赛道的敏感度，我每天都会花3个小时阅读行业报告，每周都会去线下商超和药店进行调研，每月都会和行业内的专家交流。我还建立了自己的研究数据库，对行业内的重点企业进行跟踪分析，及时掌握企业的最新动态。
很多人之所以在投资中亏损，就是因为超出了自己的能力圈。他们听到别人说某个行业好、某只股票会涨，就盲目跟风买入，却对这个行业的商业模式、企业的核心竞争力一无所知。这种“凭感觉”的投资方式，和赌博没有本质区别。而在能力圈内投资，你能清晰地判断企业的价值，知道什么时候该买、什么时候该卖，从而规避风险，抓住机会。
如今，我依然只在消费和医药赛道进行投资，即使其他赛道再热门，我也绝不轻易涉足。我深知，人的精力是有限的，只有专注于自己看得懂的领域，才能做到精准判断、果断决策。深耕能力圈，只赚“看得懂”的钱，这看似保守的策略，却让我的本金实现了持续裂变，也让我在投资路上走得越来越稳。@男神讲趋势 #加密市场反弹 $BTC
$ETH

After 20 years of navigating the investment circle, my biggest insight is this: what truly allows capital to grow sustainably is not blindly chasing trends, but rather deeply cultivating one's own circle of competence and only earning money that one understands. In the past, due to greed, I ventured into the futures market, which I completely did not understand, and lost half of my capital in just one month; while in the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, which I am familiar with, I achieved a miraculous increase of hundreds of times my capital. This loss and gain taught me that the boundary of investment is the boundary of competence. By guarding my circle of competence, I can protect my capital and achieve wealth growth.

The 'double in three months' and 'ten times in a year' investment promotions always remind me of my impatient self when I first entered the market. At that time, my mind was filled with thoughts of making quick money, frequently trading, chasing highs and cutting losses. After a year, I paid a lot in transaction fees, but my principal shrank by half. Until I met an experienced investor who said, 'Investing is like planting a fruit tree; you need to give it time to take root and bloom before you can wait for the day of harvest.' This statement awakened me. From then on, I abandoned the quick money mentality and embraced long-termism. Now, 15 years have passed, and the initial principal of 100,000 has grown to over 30 million. Time has given me the richest rewards.

When the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2008, I held onto the only 80,000 yuan of principal I had, watching the market plummet thousands of points every day. Some people around me were crying while cutting losses, others leveraged to buy the dip and lost everything, yet by the end of that year, I doubled my principal. It wasn't luck; it was the four words 'margin of safety' that became my anchor in investment. Now, more than a decade later, that 80,000 has turned into tens of millions, and I firmly believe that true investment is not a gamble of chasing highs and cutting losses, but rather building a solid wall around the principal with rationality.
The first time I came across 'margin of safety' was in the university library, where I dog-eared Benjamin Graham's (The Intelligent Investor). The idea in the book that 'buying stocks is like buying bread; you should act when the price is below value' completely overturned my understanding of investment. When I first entered the market, I also followed the trend to buy popular stocks, feeling pleased when the stock price soared in just a few days, but soon I was deeply trapped. That loss made me realize that prices that deviate from value are mere castles in the air; only when a stock's intrinsic value is far higher than its market price does investment possess the confidence to withstand risks.

“Husband, let's get a divorce. I really can't hold on any longer.” In the winter of 2017, when my wife cried and said this to me, I was holding a debt collection notice that stated, “Debt of 1.5 million, to be repaid by deadline.” At that time, I had just gone bankrupt and didn't even have money to buy milk powder for my child. My wife's words completely broke me. But who would have thought that 8 years later, I would be holding my wife and saying, “Thank you for not leaving me back then.” All these changes stemmed from cryptocurrency, and more importantly, from long-termism.
I used to run a toy business. In 2012, I opened a toy factory, and because the products were innovative, I quickly opened up the market. The business grew bigger and bigger, and at its peak, I could earn over a million in a year. But in 2015, I followed a friend's “advice” and blindly expanded production. As a result, the market suddenly changed, toys couldn't be sold, the factory's cash flow broke, and I had to close down. I still owed suppliers 1.5 million.

“If you don't pay back soon, we won't be polite to you!” In the summer of 2016, a debt collector cornered me at the entrance of my community, holding an iron rod, with a fierce look in his eyes. At that time, I had just gone from being a 'tens of millions boss' to a 'broke' with a debt of 2 million, afraid to even enter my own home. Who would have thought that 8 years later, I would be in my own mansion, sharing the logic of making money through 'reverse thinking' with friends? In the cryptocurrency circle, wealth often hides in the opposite direction of where most people look.
I used to work as a real estate agent. In 2013, I opened my own agency, and because of the booming real estate market, I quickly made over ten million, bought a mansion and luxury cars, and became what others called a 'successful person'. But in 2015, I followed the trend and invested in a real estate project, which ended up being a failure. I not only lost all my savings but also owed 2 million to the bank and friends. The company went bankrupt, the mansion was confiscated, and I returned to square one overnight.

“Dad, I want to buy a new backpack.” In the spring of 2017, when my daughter timidly said this to me, I was holding the only 200 yuan I had, and tears almost fell. At that time, I had just gone bankrupt, deeply in debt, and could not even afford my daughter's backpack. But who would have thought that 8 years later, I would take my daughter on a trip abroad, buying her everything she likes. All these changes stemmed from cryptocurrency and, more importantly, from self-discipline.
I used to be in the advertising business. In 2012, I opened an advertising company. Because of good creativity and attentive service, I quickly accumulated a group of clients, and the business grew larger. But in 2015, I started to expand, no longer focusing on the business, but instead putting my energy into socializing, drinking, and playing cards every day. The company's management became increasingly lax. As a result, in less than a year, the company experienced serious losses and ultimately had to close, leaving me with 1.2 million in debt.

"Mr. Wang, just sell the house, otherwise we really can't do anything anymore." In the autumn of 2016, the bank's collection personnel sat in my living room with a cold tone. I looked at the smiling faces of my wife and children in the family portrait on the wall and felt especially useless for the first time. At that time, I absolutely could not imagine that 8 years later I would be in my own studio, explaining the importance of 'risk control' to a group of investors. The reversal of life often begins with understanding awe.
I used to be in the furniture business. In 2012, I opened a store in a furniture city. Due to my good vision and attentive service, the business grew larger and larger. Later, I opened two more branches and bought two sets of school district houses. However, in 2015, I followed the trend and expanded by opening a large furniture market in the suburbs, investing all my savings and taking a loan of 2000000. As a result, due to the remote location, the market's business was bleak, and it went bankrupt in less than a year. I not only lost all my assets but also fell into a huge debt.

You liar, pay me back! In the winter of 2016, I was cornered by an angry supplier and punched in the face. At that time, I had just transformed from a 'successful boss' into a 'debtor' with a debt of 1.8 million, lacking even the courage to go home. But who would have thought that eight years later, I would become a somewhat well-known analyst in the crypto circle, with a net worth of tens of millions. I defeated those self-proclaimed smart speculators using the most 'foolish' methods.
I used to be in the electronic parts business. I established my own company in 2013 and, thanks to the booming smartphone market, my business was thriving, making nearly a million a year at its peak. However, in 2015, I took a friend's 'advice,' followed the trend, and made a big business deal, only to be scammed. I not only lost all my savings but also owed the supplier 1.8 million. The company went bankrupt, my house was mortgaged, and I became known as a 'fraud' in the eyes of others.

In the summer of 2016, when I was moving bricks at the construction site, I never imagined that one day I would become a 'multi-millionaire' in someone else's words. At that time, I had just gone bankrupt, owed a mountain of debt, and could only make a living by working hard. Every day I was as tired as a dog, lying in the board house at night, my mind filled with the thought 'it's really hard to live.' But who would have thought that 8 years later, I would completely change my life through cryptocurrency.
I used to be in the hardware business. In 2013, I opened a hardware store, and the business was quite good. Later, thinking about 'growing bigger and stronger,' I partnered with a friend to open a hardware processing factory. But unexpectedly, due to poor management and fierce market competition, the factory closed down in less than a year. I not only lost all my savings but also owed 1.5 million in debt. My friend ran away, leaving me alone to face the debt collectors. With no options, I could only transfer the hardware store and went to the construction site to move bricks.

“Brother, lend me 500 yuan for a meal, I will definitely pay you back next month.” After sending this message to my best friend during the Spring Festival of 2017, I squatted in the corner of my rented room and cried. At that time, I had just transformed from a “boss” to a debtor of 2 million, unable to afford a decent New Year's Eve dinner. But who would have thought that 8 years later, I would be traveling around the world with my family, relying on the cryptocurrency that I once regarded as a “scam.”
I used to be in the catering business. In 2012, I opened a chain hot pot restaurant in the city, and at its peak, I had 5 branches, making over a million a year. But in 2015, I foolishly followed the trend and opened a high-end restaurant, investing all my savings and borrowing a lot of high-interest loans. As a result of mispositioning, the restaurant closed down in less than six months. I not only lost all the profits from the hot pot restaurant but also accumulated nearly 2 million in external debts.

“Mr. Wang, please give me one more month. As soon as the project funds arrive, I will pay you back immediately!” In the summer of 2016, when I was bowing to suppliers at the dinner table, I never imagined that one day I would be able to say to others, “Money is not a problem.” From a bankrupt boss with a debt of two million to now being a crypto analyst with assets worth tens of millions, my deepest realization over these eight years is that in the crypto world, what you earn is not the money from the market, but the money from human nature.
I used to be in the clothing wholesale business. In 2014, I opened a large clothing market in the city center, intending to make a big splash. However, I encountered the impact of e-commerce and, coupled with my rapid expansion, my funding chain broke within two years. On the day of the bankruptcy, I settled the employees' wages and looked at the empty store, feeling for the first time that life was meaningless. To escape my debts, I moved to a rental house in the suburbs, living on instant noodles every day, even borrowing money for my child's formula from my parents.

“Boss, if you don’t pay us soon, we’ll have to take legal action.” In 2016, during the Mid-Autumn Festival, the sound of debt collectors banging on my door was deafening. I hid in the bedroom with my young daughter, afraid to even breathe loudly. At that time, I could never have imagined that 8 years later I would be standing at an industry summit, sharing my trading experiences with hundreds of investors. Life’s path truly takes unexpected turns.
I used to work in engineering. In 2013, I started my own small construction company. My business was going smoothly, but in 2015, the developer I was working with ran away, leaving me with 8 million yuan in unpaid project fees. Instead, I ended up owing suppliers and workers nearly 2 million. My house was seized, my car was mortgaged, and although my wife didn’t divorce me, she cried every day. During that time, I was even afraid to go out, fearing I would run into acquaintances.

In the deep winter of 2016, when I handed the last set of keys to the debt collector, my wife was crying in the hallway holding our child, and I squatted on the steps finishing a half pack of cigarettes. At that time, I could never have imagined that 8 years later, I would be in a seaside apartment in Sanya, explaining the logic of cryptocurrency to my son who had just entered junior high school. The twists and turns of life can sometimes be more thrilling than K-line charts.
Before this, I was a somewhat well-known building materials dealer. At my peak, I had three stores and five trucks, and during the holidays, relatives back home would gather around me. However, a construction site accident in 2015 not only wiped out my savings but also left me with nearly 2 million in debt. Suppliers blocked my door, banks urged repayment, and even my own brother avoided me. During that time, every day I opened my eyes to the words 'pay back the money,' and I even considered jumping off a bridge.

"Another liquidation?" At three o'clock in the morning, the analyst's backend is flooded with such comments. You might not believe it, but the one who can analyze the market for you now once had their principal reduced to just 1000 yuan. In the crypto world, this amount isn't even considered 'seedling', at most it's just 'seed'.
But it's this 1000 yuan that has allowed me to turn my capsized life around. Today, let's not talk about fancy indicators; instead, I'll share the honest truth about how I used 'contrarian' simple methods to make a comeback. Newbies can avoid three years of detours after reading this, and seasoned players might be able to recover the principal they once lost.

“Brother, lend me 100 yuan to buy a boxed meal.” This was me in 2016, after the company went bankrupt and I was left with a pile of debt. I squatted for 7 days at the entrance of the digital asset trading center with the last 50,000 yuan, and the pile of cigarette butts was bigger than my face. Who would have thought that 8 years later, my account balance stopped at 28,590,000?
Don't think I'm a lucky gambler who stepped in dog shit. I've seen the liquidation messages at 3 AM and tried to make instant noodle soup taste like 'delicacies'. These lessons learned with real money are a thousand times more reliable than slogans shouting 'hundredfold myths'. Today, we won't engage in metaphysics or make empty promises; I will lay bare the core logic of survival in the crypto circle for you.

A few days ago, I was reviewing my trading records, and I was suddenly stunned by the numbers in my account. The poor kid who was left with nothing but his underwear after being cut off back then can now actually live steadily off the crypto market. It’s not that I have any insider information, nor did I get lucky with a windfall; it’s purely that after being battered by the market hundreds of times, I have forged a few “life-saving rules.” Today I’m sharing these heartfelt insights with you, so you don’t end up being the “fool” who’s just giving away money.
1. Don’t panic and run during slow declines and rapid increases; the big players are feeding you “chips.”
The mistake that newcomers often make is to "give up at the slightest fluctuation." Clearly seeing the market suddenly spike, then slowly decline again, they immediately panic and sell off, only to see it take off straight after they sell. Is this a market crash? Clearly, it’s the big players “washing the plate and collecting chips.” They create a spike to attract attention, then slowly pull back, scaring off impatient retail investors while quietly picking up the chips. In this situation, as long as the fundamentals are sound, just stay calm and hold on; what you’re enduring isn’t an opportunity lost, but a fight against the “small retail investors” who are scrambling for profits.