Staring at ETH jumping around 2930, are your palms sweating in front of the screen? Bulls are hoping for a continuation of the trend and gritting their teeth to hold on, while bears are sharpening their claws watching for a MACD death cross. How should this game be played? Don't worry, today we will dissect it thoroughly and clarify tonight's core script for you!
Key point: The billion-level 'ammunition depot' is the key to victory or defeat
Compared to the entanglement of technical indicators, there is a piece of data tonight that is the real lifeline, which can directly influence the direction of ETH! Latest news: If ETH price breaks below the key support of 2800, the accumulated long contracts on mainstream trading platforms will face a liquidation scale of up to 1.022 billion dollars; on the other hand, if it can strongly stand above the 3000 mark, 843 million dollars in short positions will be directly blown up. Let’s translate what this means: the two price levels of 2800 and 3000 are the 'ammunition depots' filled with retail stop-loss orders! As soon as the price touches either one, it will inevitably trigger a liquidity tsunami, with a large number of contracts being forcibly liquidated by the system, and this force will push the price in a more extreme direction like a domino effect. Breaking below 2800 is a chain reaction of liquidation and a downward plunge, while breaking above 3000 is a violent surge as shorts are forced to cover; this volatility will definitely not be small!
Technical contradictions are at their peak: the trend is upward, but the indicators are singing a different tune.
Let's first look at the one-hour level trend. ETH has rebounded from 2700 all the way up, and the structure of the upward channel has actually not been broken, which is the confidence that many longs cling to; after all, seasoned players in the crypto space understand that trend is king. However, the strange point comes: the MACD's yellow and white lines are not only below the 0 axis but have also clearly formed a death cross! This scene is like a car where the dashboard shows it's still moving forward, but the engine malfunction light is glaring. What should we trust, the dashboard or the malfunction light? In my view, indicators can sometimes deceive, but price and volume never lie. This kind of contradiction in technicals often heralds the outbreak of a big trend; it all depends on where the main player finally decides to flip the table!
Practical advice: Friends with heavy positions need to stay alert right now.
After discussing the market, let's talk about practical operations. Players with different positions have completely different strategies.
For those with heavier positions, especially those who are long: the 2930 position is your lifeline, and it must not be effectively breached! If the one-hour line closes steadily below 2930, don’t hesitate; quickly reduce your position to avoid risk. Don’t wait to be ground down by the market. For friends looking to open new positions: take my advice, going long against the trend right now is simply picking up nuts from the fire; ordinary players should definitely avoid it! A more prudent approach is to wait for the price to rebound to the 3000-3050 pressure range before considering short opportunities; following the trend will help minimize losses.
My exclusive opinion: the probability of a downward kick tonight is much greater than a pull-up.
Finally, let's talk about something heartfelt. Don't fixate on that contradictory MACD anymore! The core script for ETH tonight revolves around the critical range of 2800-3000. The liquidation data shows clearly: the scale of liquidation for longs is nearly 200 million dollars higher than that for shorts! The main players know better than anyone where the 'meat' is more abundant. A downward push to trigger long stop losses can not only harvest a wave of chips but also wash the market in the right direction. This temptation is hard for the main players to resist. So my point is very clear: tonight, the probability of ETH first correcting is much greater than a direct breakthrough to the upside.
I am a veteran who has been deeply involved in the crypto market for many years. Follow me@帝王说币 #ETH走势分析 $BTC
