——A heartfelt sharing from a veteran player
I am Old Li, an old player in the cryptocurrency circle for 8 years. I have seen the myth of becoming rich overnight, and I have also witnessed the tragedy of losing everything. In the end, I found that those who survive are often the ones who use 'stupid methods.' The strategy I am sharing today may seem 'too conservative' to you, but if you can stick to it, it might be deadlier than chasing highs and cutting losses (for the market makers)!
1. My three iron rules: break one, lose three years!
Keep quiet when prices rise, take action when they fall
During market frenzy, the adrenaline and account loss rate of retail investors are proportional. I have a habit: when the community is excitedly shouting 'the bull is here', I go binge-watch shows; when everyone is cursing and closing apps, I start rummaging through trash cans for chips. Others are fearful and I am greedy? No, I am just stocking up during the discount season.
A little humor: Chasing a rise is like chasing a bus; no matter how fast you run, you might still get the door slammed on you; buying the dip is like shopping for vegetables, haggling over wilted ones, and you can still cook a good meal at home.
Press orders? Better to walk on the street!
Betting all funds on one coin is like putting eggs on a rocket—might go to the sky, but more likely to explode. I split my funds into three parts: 30% cash (to buy the dip during crashes), 40% in mainstream coins (BTC/ETH as ballast), and 30% in potential coins (which should be diversified into 3-5). Diversification isn’t being cowardly; it’s leaving room for regret.
All in is for gamblers; keeping cash is for hunters.
The market is not short of opportunities; it’s short of bullets. I’ve seen too many people fully invested at the peak, only to be left staring when the bear market comes. My principle: Always keep 30% cash; when a dip presents an opportunity, you have the right to say 'pick up cheap'.
Two, six short phrases: The 'blade' hidden in simplicity.
Sideways = the night before the breakout, don’t get itchy hands!
High-level sideways trading is often the operator unloading, while low-level sideways trading may be accumulation. But beginners frequently trade during sideways movements, resulting in transaction fees exceeding their losses. My foolish method: Go for a walk during sideways periods and act when the direction is clear.
Buy on the down candle and sell on the up candle? First, determine if it’s a real drop or a fake fall.
The saying is not wrong, but the premise is to distinguish between 'systemic crashes' and 'emotional mis-kills'. For example, when the market is bearish, it may provide opportunities; but if the project team runs away, a downward candle could be the starting point of an abyss. I added a filter: Check on-chain data after a crash; if the whales haven’t run, then consider buying the dip.
The sharper the drop, the stronger the rebound? Be careful that the waterfall turns into a cliff!
There are two types of crashes in the crypto world: emotional release (can buy the dip) and fundamental collapse (run fast). Before LUNA went to zero in 2022, every 'rebound' was a scythe’s smile. My principle: Buy the dip on mainstream coins during crashes, and unfollow altcoins during crashes.
Pyramid building: The method that the operators hate the most is the 'cost averaging technique'.
Add 10% to your position for every 10% drop, the cost gets lower and lower. But the prerequisite is to choose coins with fundamentals like BTC/ETH; otherwise, you might end up averaging into a 'bottomless pit'. For example: Buy 20,000 for 100 yuan, add 30,000 when it drops to 90 yuan, add 50,000 when it drops to 81 yuan—if it rebounds to 90 yuan, you profit; the operators will feel the pain for you.
Sideways after a sharp rise is a trap; sideways after a sharp drop is a knife.
Sideways after a sharp rise means withdrawing capital and leaving profits; sideways after a sharp drop, if it breaks historical support, cut decisively. Don’t fall in love with the market; stop-loss needs to be faster than Bruce Lee's punch!
The candlestick chart is a map, not a prophecy book.
I watch the market after 9 PM to avoid daytime news noise. Use the 1-hour chart to determine direction, the 4-hour chart to find support; only enter when MACD and RSI indicators are consistent. Technical indicators are crutches, but you still have to walk the path yourself.
Three, the underlying logic of foolish methods: Survive to laugh last.
The secret to getting rich in the crypto world lies in 'anti-human nature':
When 90% of people are staring at the market all night, you shut down and sleep.
When the community boasts about 'ten-thousand times returns', you read the white paper and check the code updates.
When leveraged contracts are being liquidated and flooding the screens, you quietly dollar-cost average into BTC.
This kind of 'foolishness' is essentially exchanging discipline for probability and betting on trends with patience. Data shows: Regularly investing fixed amounts in mainstream coins over three years yields returns exceeding those of swing traders by 200%.
The last sincere words.
The market is always changing, but human nature remains the same. Foolish methods are not laziness, but rather handing decisions over to discipline and kicking emotions out of the game. If you are always led by candlesticks, remember this saying: The ultimate state of trading coins is to turn on the machine at the right time, turn it off at the right time, withdraw profits, and review losses—treat it like a job, and it will be easier to make money.
