At three in the morning, Brother Wang, staring at six screens, had bloodshot eyes; his quantitative model had just crashed. Meanwhile, Sister Li, who had gone to bed early, saw her dollar-cost-averaged Bitcoin quietly rise by 5%.
A day in the cryptocurrency world is like a year in the human world. This saying is true, but many people misunderstand its meaning — it doesn't mean you should trade frequently, but rather that the speed of change in this market is astonishing. I've seen too many 'smart people' fail miserably: Old Zhang, obsessed with AI strategies, was left devastated after his account hit zero; Old Li, who researched quantitative models, lost everything after his model failed; Little Wang, who studied candlestick patterns every day, ultimately exhausted his capital in chasing highs and lows.
They are not unmotivated; they are just working in the wrong direction. The real survival rule in the crypto world is not about who is smarter, but who can remain stable.
01 Is indicator dependency the beginning of losing money?
When I first started, I also regarded technical analysis as the bible. Bollinger Bands, MACD, RSI... I had dozens of indicators open on my computer, feeling like a trading genius with the secret code. What was the result? Over-reliance on indicators cost me dearly.
Technical indicators have a fatal weakness: they are all based on historical data. In a market like crypto, where even a tweet from the President of El Salvador can trigger a surge, past performance is nearly impossible to predict for the future.
What's even scarier is that most indicators will collectively fail during periods of extreme volatility. When the market is in panic or euphoria, all the golden crosses and dead crosses, overbought and oversold indicators lose their meaning, leaving only the naked human nature of speculation.
I once spent months optimizing my MACD strategy, and indeed achieved considerable profits in a choppy market. But when a black swan event struck, it wiped out months of profit in just a few minutes. This made me realize: no single indicator can predict all market conditions.
02 Emotional management, the overlooked 'moat'.
The most expensive tuition in the crypto world is not the cost of technical learning, but the price of losing control of emotions.
Why do we always see the price rise after we sell and fall after we buy? This is not the market targeting you intentionally; it is the human weaknesses amplified by the market. When you see others getting rich, greed drives you to chase the highs; when your account is losing, fear forces you to cut your losses.
I have set three emotional iron rules for myself:
First, you must take a nap before making decisions to avoid trading when fatigued.
Second, if a single day's loss reaches 5%, take a mandatory break to prevent revenge trading.
Third, never enter the market because of FOMO (fear of missing out); missing out may only lead to regret for a day, but being trapped may lead to regret for a year.
True trading experts understand that 'not trading' is also part of the strategy. During uncertain market conditions, staying in cash and observing requires more wisdom than blindly entering trades. There will always be opportunities in the crypto world, but your capital is limited.
03 Steady and steady wins the race.
After years of exploration, I have summarized a set of 'clumsy' but effective survival rules:
Position management is more important than timing. I always adhere to the 5% principle: no single trade exceeds 5% of total capital, and no single currency exceeds 20% of total position. This way, even in the face of a black swan event, I won't be severely injured.
Regular investments, no guessing tops and bottoms. For mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, I set up automatic investments not influenced by market sentiment. Data shows that Bitcoin's annualized return over the past 10 years has exceeded 200%; the power of time far exceeds that of frequent trading.
Cut losses, let profits run. I set strict stop-loss lines (generally 15-25%), but do not take profits; instead, I use a trailing stop method. As long as it doesn't drop below the 20-day moving average, I will continue to hold to capture the big market.
Focus on the narrative, not just the fundamentals. In the crypto world, capital flows often follow the narrative. I will study market trends and community sentiment, but I will never blindly chase the highs; instead, I will strategically position myself in potentially promising narrative tracks.
Most importantly, always keep learning. The crypto world is evolving rapidly, from DeFi to NFTs, from RWA to on-chain AI; if you don't learn, you will be eliminated. But learning is not about blindly following trends; it's about finding your niche and researching it in depth.
04 Conclusion: Surviving means winning over 90% of people.
The crypto world is not short of stories of sudden wealth, but those who survive long are traders who prioritize 'stability'. The most ironic aspect of this market is that those who seek slow profits often achieve financial freedom sooner than those who chase quick money.
The true wisdom of the crypto world is recognizing one's own ignorance. The market is never wrong; it is our expectations that are incorrect. Kicking the 'smart disease' and putting in some 'stupid effort' may be the rarest quality in this industry.
Remember the last bull market, that intraday trader who laughed at me for being 'too conservative'? He has already been liquidated in the last round of the crash. And I am still here, moving forward steadily.
Follow my Twitter and let's use the 'stupid method' to capture real opportunities in the crypto world. In the next post, I will share how to identify valuable blockchain projects to avoid being cut by 'air coins'—not all popular tokens are worth investing in, but there are always some understated gems hidden beneath the mud#巨鲸动向 $ETH
