First, let's set a reverse flag: the more people shout that 'digital assets are dead', the more I feel that the big meat at the end of 2026 is more appealing.
After 8 years in the industry, I've seen the craziness of 2017 when even delivery workers talked about mainstream coins, and I've endured the long nights of 2022 when accounts shrank by 80%. Now, seeing core assets climb back from $15,000 to $120,000, I've finally understood a truth: this circle has never been about who can read the K-line better, but about who can sleep well amidst the ghost stories. Today, let's not talk about MACD or Bollinger Bands; instead, let’s chat casually about my judgment on the next big bottom. It’s all heartfelt private insights; profits and losses are on you, but it's definitely useful information.
1. This old friend of the cycle has never been late.
Many beginners always think 'this time is different,' but in my eyes, the cycle of the crypto market is more reliable than a menstrual cycle. Summarizing the pitfalls I've fallen into and the money I've made reveals a pattern etched in my DNA: core assets typically reach their peak about 18 months after a halving, followed by more than a year of gradual decline like 'boiling a frog in warm water.'
According to this rhythm, October 2025 is very likely to be the ceiling of this round of market, and the next heart-pounding low point is basically locked in the fourth quarter of 2026 to early 2027. Don't argue with me that 'institutional entry will break the cycle'; those Wall Street giants who shouted 'long-term hold' last year also ran faster than retail investors during the pullback. Institutions have no faith; once the risk control system sounds the alarm, they sell decisively.
But why do I dare to say the cycle is still turning? Because the underlying logic has not collapsed: the halving of production has made new goods scarcer, and compliant funds are still continuously accumulating chips. The supply-demand relationship is there; just as water overflowing is inevitable, a steep drop will inevitably rebound.
2. The real bottom is built from despair.
The most taboo thing when buying at the bottom is 'placing orders based on price'; the real bottom is a 'triple victory' of price, sentiment, and time. I've been watching for half a year and summarized these three signals: if two appear, you can start to get ready.
1. Price target zone: $30,000-$60,000; you won't lose even if you buy with your eyes closed.
Retracing 77% from a high of 126,000, mathematically savvy friends can estimate it to be around 29,000. But don't forget, those big institutions that bought tens of billions have an average cost around 70,000, and they definitely won't sit idly by as it falls below their cost line. So this range of 30,000-60,000 is like pork sold at a 50% discount in the market; there's no need to get tangled up in whether it's the lowest price; getting it at any price is already a huge gain.
2. Sentiment signal: when even your mom advises you to sell quickly.
At the bottom in late 2022, the coin hoarder at the desk next to me started selling coins to pay off his mortgage. Looking back now, that was the best entry point. The real bottom is filled with cries of 'computing power has collapsed' and 'regulation will seal us off'; the fear index can drop to around 10, which is worse than in 2022. If at that time, even the most steadfast 'believers' in your WeChat list start complaining, don't panic; the turning point is coming soon.
3. Time window: end of 2026 to early 2027; patience is more important than money.
The market never reverses like a roller coaster in a V-shape; bottoms are 'ground out.' Just like steaming buns requires fermentation, the fourth quarter of 2026 to early 2027 is likely to be a sideways period where it 'can't drop or rise.' Buying slowly at this time is a hundred times steadier than rushing to go all-in.
3. My layout plan: pyramid building, a thousand times better than going all-in.
I've seen too many cases of cutting losses in a bear market due to all-in bets. I've survived these years thanks to the 'pyramid buying method,' which is simple enough for beginners to learn:
Step 1: Wait for the signal; don't be the 'bag holder.'
I only focus on two indicators, which are more useful than looking at 100 analysis reports: first, can core assets regain the 50-week moving average? This is a signal of capital inflow; second, do those listed companies that bought a lot of assets, like MSTR, stop falling? If these two signals do not appear, I won't move a penny.
Step 2: Buy in batches; the more it drops, the happier you should be.
When the price reaches 40,000-60,000, first invest 30% of the total funds, equivalent to buying a 'ticket'; if the fear index drops to 10-15 and the price drops to 30,000-40,000, then add 40%; if you are lucky enough to encounter extreme conditions of over 20,000, then dump the remaining 30% in, and afterward, just uninstall the software and do whatever you want.
Step 3: Leave a way out; surviving the bear market is the most important thing.
Key point! Always invest only spare money! It's the kind of money that, even if lost entirely, won't affect your ability to eat hot pot or pay your mortgage. In 2022, I saw someone sell their house to buy in at the bottom, only to be forced to cut losses at the lowest point; that kind of despair I will never forget. The scariest thing in a bear market is not the drop, but that you can't hold on until dawn.
4. Daring to bet in despair is because I can see far enough.
Some may ask, why do you still dare to buy when things are so bad? Because I see a great opportunity in 2029, at which point these two driving forces will send asset prices skyrocketing:
First, institutional funds can't be stopped: right now, the compliant funds from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have only opened a small door. Once the U.S. regulatory bill is implemented, pension funds and sovereign funds, these 'big daddy' investors, will come in with real money, and the market at that time will be crazier than in 2021.
Second, the technical foundation is getting thicker: now the Layer 2 technology of core assets is becoming more mature; not only is the payment speed faster, but it can also be linked to real-world assets. Previously, it was just 'digital gold'; in the future, it may become the infrastructure of the financial market, with a very stable basic market.
So I dare to say that using a cost of 30,000-60,000 to bet on a target of 150,000-250,000 in 2029 is definitely worth it.
Lastly, I want to tell everyone that the crypto market is like a roller coaster; many dare to ride it, but few can reach the end. The bottom in 2026 will definitely be hard to endure; every day opening your phone will be filled with bad news, and you may even doubt whether you are wrong. But please remember, the market is always born in despair and ends in madness.
If you've read this far and feel that my reasoning makes some sense, why not give a follow @男神讲趋势 #加密市场观察 $BTC .
