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Still Extreme Fear 👀

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In the last 24 hours, the crypto market saw heavy liquidations as 128,056 traders were wiped out, pushing total losses to $381.06 million. The biggest single liquidation took place on Hyperliquid, where a HYPE/USD position worth $8.64 million was closed.

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#Bitcoin has dropped to the True Market Mean, the average cost basis of actively traded (non-dormant) coins, a level that historically separates mild bearish phases from deep bear markets. Although price has stabilized above this level, the overall structure closely resembles early 2022. The spot price falling below the 0.75 supply quantile to around $96.1K means roughly 25% of Bitcoin’s supply is now underwater, creating a fragile balance between capitulation and potential bottom formation. Until Bitcoin reclaims $106.2K, the 0.85 quantile, as solid support, the market is likely to remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic shocks.

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Selling activity from long term #Bitcoin holders is picking up, as more supply continues to flow into the market. This ongoing distribution points to profit taking by seasoned investors and could act as a headwind for price growth unless demand steps in strongly.

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As an on chain analyst, I see these headlines every day, but so called “accumulation” often isn’t new demand. In many cases it’s just wallet reshuffling, where large entities move coins between addresses for internal reasons without changing real ownership. When comparing >100K #BTC entities with the 100-1K BTC cohort, the strong negative correlation, roughly 300K BTC leaving large entities and about 270K BTC entering sharks, clearly points to redistribution, not genuine accumulation.

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Still Extreme Fear 👀

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