GEMINI
I'm just an immature trader and a crypto lover 👋
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As an on chain analyst, I see these headlines every day, but so called “accumulation” often isn’t new demand. In many cases it’s just wallet reshuffling, where large entities move coins between addresses for internal reasons without changing real ownership.
When comparing >100K #BTC entities with the 100-1K BTC cohort, the strong negative correlation, roughly 300K BTC leaving large entities and about 270K BTC entering sharks, clearly points to redistribution, not genuine accumulation.
When comparing >100K #BTC entities with the 100-1K BTC cohort, the strong negative correlation, roughly 300K BTC leaving large entities and about 270K BTC entering sharks, clearly points to redistribution, not genuine accumulation.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Profit taking from #Bitcoin’s long term holders is increasing as price pushes higher, with the last 30 days showing one of the largest distribution spikes in the past five years, a pattern that has historically appeared near macro cycle tops rather than bottoms and usually reflects experienced investors selling into strength, which does not guarantee an immediate reversal but often limits upside and increases the risk of volatility or pullbacks unless strong new demand enters the market.
Liquidations surged across the crypto market in the last 24 hours, impacting 124,770 traders and pushing total losses to $404.89 million. The largest single liquidation was recorded on Hyperliquid, where a #HYPEUSD position worth $11.08 million was closed.
The current behavior of #Bitcoin suggests that the traditional four year cycle may already be behind us. When viewed through the lens of past cycles, the usual sequence does not fully align with what we are seeing now. Increased institutional influence, evolving liquidity conditions and global economic factors are playing a much larger role. As a result, the classic cycle theory alone may no longer be enough to explain Bitcoin’s price movements.
Despite the recent drawdown from $125k, #Bitcoin treasury holdings held by public companies have continued to grow. This challenges the idea of widespread forced selling, particularly as several Bitcoin linked equities remain below mNAV. The behavior points more toward long term conviction than short term pressure.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
During the sharp drop a few weeks ago, demand for downside protection increased as price moved into the low $80K range, reflecting higher uncertainty. Since then, the market has stabilized and expectations for extreme moves have eased. However, implied volatility remains above the very low levels seen over the past six months, a more active volatility environment than before.
#Bitcoin is trading around $86.4K. Short term holders are in loss with the cost basis at $101.8K, which keeps pressure on the upside. Active Investors Mean is at $87.9K, acting as the immediate balance level. The True Market Mean at $81.3K remains strong support and keeps the overall structure healthy. Realized Price at $56.3K shows long term holders are still comfortable and not forced to sell.
The latest #Bitcoin selloff triggered the most significant 7 day change in short term holder cost basis since the FTX low in 2022 around $16K. This suggests a sharp shakeout among recent entrants, with panic driven selling and liquidations playing a major role.
In past cycles, events like this have often marked a reset in market structure, clearing excess risk and allowing stronger hands to step in. Volatility may persist but these moments tend to define important inflection zones.
In past cycles, events like this have often marked a reset in market structure, clearing excess risk and allowing stronger hands to step in. Volatility may persist but these moments tend to define important inflection zones.
#Bitcoin has outperformed nearly every major crypto sector over the past three months. This consistent gap in performance reflects a market where capital is strongly biased toward #BTC. Investors are showing a clear preference for stability and depth of liquidity, while riskier sectors struggle to attract sustained inflows. Unless sentiment shifts meaningfully, Bitcoin is expected to stay in control of broader market trends.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
An ELR reading of 0.18 highlights a clear sense of caution in the #XRP market on Binance. This suggests that traders are not aggressively committing to positions yet, as the market continues to reposition itself. Such a low reading often reflects uncertainty and reduced risk appetite, indicating that participants are waiting for stronger confirmation before making decisive moves.
Overall, this phase points to XRP building a more stable and balanced foundation, which could set the stage for a clearer directional move once confidence returns and volume strengthens.
Overall, this phase points to XRP building a more stable and balanced foundation, which could set the stage for a clearer directional move once confidence returns and volume strengthens.
An ELR reading of 0.18 highlights a clear sense of caution in the #XRP market on Binance. This suggests that traders are not aggressively committing to positions yet, as the market continues to reposition itself. Such a low reading often reflects uncertainty and reduced risk appetite, indicating that participants are waiting for stronger confirmation before making decisive moves.
Overall, this phase points to XRP building a more stable and balanced foundation, which could set the stage for a clearer directional move once confidence returns and volume strengthens.
Overall, this phase points to XRP building a more stable and balanced foundation, which could set the stage for a clearer directional move once confidence returns and volume strengthens.
#Bitcoin’s NVT Z-score has fallen to −0.87, a level last seen in May 2022, showing that BTC may be undervalued as market cap has dropped while on chain and spot volumes have stayed relatively stable. This does not mean Bitcoin is an instant buy and should be confirmed with other indicators but historically such devaluation phases have offered good medium term opportunities. Caution is still necessary, because if #BTC enters a real bear market, many on chain signals can become unreliable.
Market volatility triggered massive liquidations in the past day, with 102,710 traders affected and losses reaching $247.44 million.
Hyperliquid recorded the largest single #ETHUSD liquidation at $4.85 million.
Hyperliquid recorded the largest single #ETHUSD liquidation at $4.85 million.
Market pressure is clearly building as #Bitcoin continues to trade well below its recent peak. With price sitting nearly 30 percent under the all time high, short term holders are increasingly feeling the strain. On chain indicators reflect this stress. The Short Term Holder SOPR has moved below 1, signaling that many recent participants are selling at a loss. This typically points to fear driven exits and weakening short term sentiment.
Loss realization is also visible in the Profit and Loss Block data, which shows a rise in realized losses across the network. Most of this selling activity is coming from short term holders, while long term holders remain comparatively stable. Such conditions often mark a local stress phase in the market. While the broader trend remains uncertain, these periods have historically preceded consolidation or a potential base forming once forced selling subsides.
Loss realization is also visible in the Profit and Loss Block data, which shows a rise in realized losses across the network. Most of this selling activity is coming from short term holders, while long term holders remain comparatively stable. Such conditions often mark a local stress phase in the market. While the broader trend remains uncertain, these periods have historically preceded consolidation or a potential base forming once forced selling subsides.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Michael Saylor is once again fueling speculation about a fresh #Bitcoin buy. With his latest comment, “Back to more orange dots,” he’s strongly implying that another accumulation phase could be underway.
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